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地球科学进展  2019, Vol. 34 Issue (11): 1152-1164    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.11.1152
研究论文     
广西降水非均匀性多尺度特征与综合评价
谢鑫昌1(),杨云川1,2,3(),田忆1,廖丽萍1,2,3,韦钧培1,周津羽1,陈立华1,2,3
1. 广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西 南宁 530004
2. 广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,广西 南宁 530004
3. 广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西 南宁 530004
Multi-scale Characteristics and Comprehensive Evaluation of Precipitation Heterogeneity in Guangxi
Xinchang Xie1(),Yunchuan Yang1,2,3(),Yi Tian1,Liping Liao1,2,3,Junpei Wei1,Jinyu Zhou1,Lihua Chen1,2,3
1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China
2. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China
3. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Guangxi, Nanning 530004, China
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摘要:

针对广西降水时空分配不均、旱涝灾害频发的现象,开展降水非均匀性多尺度特征和综合评价,可为区域应对旱涝灾害及水资源智慧管理提供科学支撑。基于1961—2017年广西87个格点的逐日降水资料,采用降水集中度(PCD)、降水集中期(PCP)指数构建日、候、旬、月、季多时间尺度的降水非均匀性等级评价体系,借助R/S分析和地理空间分析方法讨论了广西时空演变和气候分区特征。研究表明:日、候、旬尺度的PCD和PCP时空变化特征相对一致,较月、季尺度更能表达广西降水的非均匀性特征;广西降水的PCD历时变化在东北地区主要呈现递增趋势,而在西南地区主要呈递减趋势,其未来一段时期的变化趋势与历时演变相同;广西降水的PCD空间分布存在显著的空间自相关性和分层异质性,主要表现在PCD的均值、变异系数和发生频率上;广西降水的综合非均匀性总体呈现东北部地区高度分散、南部地区高度集中、西北和中部地区则为轻度集中或分散的分布格局。月以内的时间尺度是表达广西降水非均匀性的最佳尺度,若要考虑侯、旬尺度更加稳定和日尺度更加精细的优势,则采用候尺度进行逐日滑动计算分析将是最佳方式。

关键词: 降水集中度降水集中期降水非均匀性多尺度特征等级评价体系    
Abstract:

Aiming at the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and frequent occurrence of drought and waterlogging disasters in Guangxi, the multi-scale characteristics and comprehensive evaluation of precipitation heterogeneity can provide scientific support for regional response to drought and waterlogging disasters and intelligent management of water resources. Based on the daily precipitation data of 87 grid points from 1961 to 2017 in Guangxi, the Precipitation Concentration Degree (PCD) and Precipitation Concentration Period (PCP) index were used to build day, pentad, ten days, month, season precipitation heterogeneity of multiple time scale level evaluation system. By using R/S analysis and geographical spatial analysis methods, the space-time evolution characteristics and climate division in Guangxi were discussed. The study showed that the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of PCD and PCP at the diurnal, synoptic and monthly scales were relatively consistent, and the heterogeneity of precipitation in Guangxi could be better expressed than that at the monthly and seasonal scales. The diachronic change of PCD in precipitation in Guangxi shows an increasing trend in northeast China and a decreasing trend in southwest China, and the trend of its future period is the same as the diachronic evolution. The spatial distribution of PCD in Guangxi has significant spatial autocorrelation and stratification heterogeneity, which are mainly reflected in the mean value, coefficient of variation and frequency of PCD. The comprehensive heterogeneity of precipitation in Guangxi is highly dispersed in the northeast, highly concentrated in the south, and slightly concentrated or dispersed in the northwest and central regions. The time-scale within a month is the best scale to express the non-uniformity of precipitation in Guangxi. If the advantages of more stable climatic and ten-day scales and more fine daily scales are taken into account, the use of climatic scale for daily sliding calculation and analysis will be the best way.

Key words: Precipitation concentration degree    Precipitation concentration period    Precipitation heterogeneity    Multi-scale characteristics    Level evaluation system.
收稿日期: 2019-09-05 出版日期: 2019-12-31
ZTFLH:  P426.6  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金项目“基于AquaCrop模型的甘蔗干旱机制模拟及旱灾风险评估方法研究”(51609041);广西自然科学基金项目“广西甘蔗的骤发性干旱响应机理与三维度量及前兆信号诊断研究”(2019GXNSFAA185015)
通讯作者: 杨云川     E-mail: xiexinchanggxdx@163.com;yyc_sciences@163.com
作者简介: 谢鑫昌(1995-),男,广西灵山人,硕士研究生,主要从事农业水资源问题研究. E-mail: xiexinchanggxdx@163.com
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引用本文:

谢鑫昌,杨云川,田忆,廖丽萍,韦钧培,周津羽,陈立华. 广西降水非均匀性多尺度特征与综合评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(11): 1152-1164.

Xinchang Xie,Yunchuan Yang,Yi Tian,Liping Liao,Junpei Wei,Jinyu Zhou,Lihua Chen. Multi-scale Characteristics and Comprehensive Evaluation of Precipitation Heterogeneity in Guangxi. Advances in Earth Science, 2019, 34(11): 1152-1164.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.11.1152        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2019/V34/I11/1152

图1  广西降雨格点空间分布示意图
等级类型实际频率/%PCD(日)PCD(候)PCD(旬)PCD(月)PCD(季)
1高度集中5PCD>0.623PCD>0.617PCD>0.612PCD>0.573PCD>0.490
2中度集中100.575<PCD≤0.6230.568<PCD≤0.6170.561<PCD≤0.6120.524<PCD≤0.5730.438<PCD≤0.490
3轻度集中150.526<PCD≤0.5750.519<PCD≤0.5680.511<PCD≤0.5610.472<PCD≤0.5240.390<PCD≤0.438
4正常400.407≤PCD≤0.5260.399≤PCD≤0.5190.390≤PCD≤0.5110.346≤PCD≤0.4720.280≤PCD≤0.390
5轻度分散150.342≤PCD<0.4070.334≤PCD<0.3990.325≤PCD<0.3900.279≤PCD<0.3460.223≤PCD<0.280
6中度分散100.274≤PCD<0.3420.265≤PCD<0.3340.254≤PCD<0.3250.209≤PCD<0.2790.153≤PCD<0.223
7高度分散5PCD<0.274PCD<0.265PCD<0.254PCD<0.209PCD<0.153
表1  各时间尺度非均匀性评价等级表
时间尺度最大值最小值均值极差值
STD0.11920.07210.09650.0471
年均PCD0.55570.32880.45890.2269
CV0.28710.13020.21450.1569
STD0.11990.07300.09730.0469
年均PCD0.54880.32210.45190.2267
CV0.29180.13380.22000.1580
STD0.12000.07320.09780.0468
年均PCD0.54340.31300.44420.2304
CV0.29780.13500.22530.1628
STD0.12150.08050.10130.0410
年均PCD0.50000.27810.40240.2219
CV0.33290.16110.25760.1718
STD0.13890.08450.10470.0544
年均PCD0.38490.29230.32670.0926
CV0.38100.24350.32090.1375
表2  各时间尺度PCD均值、STD、CV统计表
图2  不同PCP时间尺度效应变化图
图3  日、月、候尺度PCD时间趋势空间分布图
图4  日、候、月尺度PCD平均等级空间分异图(a)日尺度PCD平均等级空间分异图;(b)候尺度PCD平均等级空间分异图;(c)月尺度PCD平均等级空间分异图
时间尺度q统计量p检验值显著性
0.7031500显著
0.7095750显著
0.6800290显著
表3  日、候、月尺度q统计量数值表
时间尺度Moran's Iz得分p检验值显著性
0.7154818.3495830显著
0.7617238.8811130显著
0.7572528.8233120显著
表4  日、候、月尺度Moran’s I数值表
图5  日、候、月尺度PCD局部Lisa聚类图(a)日尺度;(b)候尺度;(c)月尺度
图6  PCD空间非均匀性变化(日尺度)
图7  1961—2017年广西区域综合评价图(a)日尺度;(b)候尺度;(c)月尺度
图8  1961—2017年不同时间尺度区域等级变化图(a)日尺度;(b)候尺度;(c)月尺度
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