热带季节内振荡在延伸期预报中的应用进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.108

地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (12): 1222 -1231. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.108

热带季节内振荡在延伸期预报中的应用进展

梅双丽(

),李勇(

),马杰

国家气象中心，北京 100081

收稿日期:2020-10-10 修回日期:2020-11-15 出版日期:2020-12-10
通讯作者: 李勇 E-mail:meisl@cma.gov.cn;liy@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
中国气象局气象预报业务关键技术发展专项“气象要素和重要天气过程延伸期预报关键技术”(YBGJXM（2020）04);国家科技支撑计划项目“10~20天延伸期天气预报技术研究”(2015BAC03B06)

Review of the Application of MJO in the Extended Range Forecast

Shuangli Mei( ),Yong Li( ),Jie Ma

National Meteorological Centre，Beijing 100081，China

Received:2020-10-10 Revised:2020-11-15 Online:2020-12-10 Published:2021-02-09
Contact: Yong Li E-mail:meisl@cma.gov.cn;liy@cma.gov.cn
About author:Mei Shuangli (1982-), female, Suihua City, Heilongjiang Province, Engineer. Research areas include medium and extended range forecast research. E-mail: meisl@cma.gov.cn
Supported by:
the China Meteorological Administration Project for Key Techniques Development in Meteorological Forecasting Operation “Key techniques for forecasting meteorological elements and important weather processes during the extended range” [Grant No.YBGJXM(2020)04];The National Science and Technology Research Program in China “The research on weather forecast technology of 10-20 days extended range”(2015BAC03B06)

全文 ( 21 ) 下载PDF ( 973 )

热带季节内振荡是延伸期预报的主要来源，基于热带季节内振荡的延伸期预报研究对业务预报具有重要意义。系统回顾了近几年热带季节内振荡在延伸期降水、温度及其极端事件、台风和季风等方面的预报应用中的最新成果以及热带季节内振荡在主要预报业务中心的应用现状，总结了热带季节内振荡在延伸期预报应用中具有的一定理论支撑；最后分析了热带季节内振荡在延伸期预报应用中面临的预报对象的确立、当前动力模式的模拟、与气象要素的物理联系及影响预报的检验等方面的技术难点，并指出了热带季节内振荡影响预报在集合预报和多模式集成及加强多种季节内振荡对天气影响的研究等方面的未来发展趋势。

关键词: 热带季节内振荡, 延伸期预报, 降水, 业务应用

Tropical intraseasonal oscillation （MJO） is the main source of the extended range forecast. The research of the extended range forecast based on MJO is of great significance for the operational forecast. In this paper， the latest achievements of MJO in the prediction of precipitation， temperature and their extreme events， typhoon and monsoon in the extended range and the operational status of major prediction centers in which MJO is used for real-time monitoring and prediction were reviewed systematically. The theoretical support of MJO in the prediction of the extended range was summarized. Finally， the technical difficulties of MJO in the application of the extended range forecast， such as the establishment of forecast objects， the simulation of MJO by the current dynamic model， the physical connection between MJO and meteorological elements， and the evaluation of MJO's influence forecasting were analyzed， and the future development trends of MJO influence forecast in the ensemble forecast， multi-mode integration and strengthening the research on the influence of multiple seasonal oscillations on the weather were also pointed out.

Key words: MJO, Extended range forecast, Precipitation, Operational application

中图分类号:

P456

图1 天气—气候无缝隙预报示意图^{[

1
]}

Fig.1 Schematic diagram of the weather-climate seamless forecast^{[

1
]}

图2 北半球热带外周平均降水的概率技巧评分^{[

91
]}
横坐标为预报提前时效，各种颜色线条表示S2S多模式集成、11个模式（MULTI、ecmwf、UKMO、NCEP、CNRM、JMA、CMA、KMA、BoM、ECCC、HMCR、ISAC）的评分，评分时段为2017年6月8日至2018年11月1日

Fig.2 Probability Skill Score of the weekly mean precipitation over the Northern Extratropics^{[

91
]}
The horizontal axis is the lead time,and various color lines represent the scores of S2S multi-mode integration and 11 modes (MULI，ecmwf,UKMO,NCEP,CNRM,JMA,CMA,KMA，BoM,ECCC,HMCR,ISAC). The scoring period is over the period 8 June 2017 to 1 November 2018

1	Qi Yanjun，Rong Xinrao. The application prospect and prospect of subseasonal-seasonal forecasting—Review of the conference on subseason-seasonal forecasting （S2S）［J］. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology，2014，4（3）：74-75.
	齐艳军，容新尧.次季节—季节预测的应用前景与展望——“次季节—季节预测（S2S）”会议评述［J］.气象科技进展，2014，4（3）：74-75.
2	Lorenz E N. The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion［J］. Tellus，1969，21（3）：289-307.
3	Ma Jie，Jin Ronghua，Zong Zhiping，et al. Analysis of predictability in extended range forecast［J］. Desert and Oasis Meteorology，2019，13（3）：137-143.
	马杰，金荣花，宗志平，等.延伸期预报中的可预报性浅析［J］.沙漠与绿洲气象，2019，13（3）：137-143.
4	Madden R A，Julian P R. Detection of a 40-50-day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific［J］. Journal of Atmospheric Science，1971，28：702-708.
5	Li T，Zhou C. Planetary scale selection of the Madden-Julian oscillation［J］. Journal of Atmospheric Science，2009，66（8）： 2 429-2 443.
6	Zhao C，Li T，Zhou T. Precursor signals and processes associated with MJO initiation over the tropical indian ocean［J］. Journal of Climate， 2013， 26（1）： 291-307.
7	Waliser D，Lau W，Stern W，et al. Potential predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation［J］. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society，2003，84（1）：33-50.
8	Li T. Recent advance in understanding the dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation［J］. Journal of Meteorological Research，2014，28（1）：1-33.
9	Aiyyer A，Molinari J. MJO and tropical cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico and eastern Pacific：Case study and idealized numerical modeling［J］. Journal of Atmospheric Sciences，2008，65（2）：691-704.
10	Lin H，Brunet G，Mo R. Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on wintertime precipitation in Canada［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2010，138（10）：3 822-3 839.
11	Schreck C J，Cordeira J M，Margolin D. Which MJO events affect North American temperatures？［J］.Monthly Weather Review，2013，141（11）：3 840-3 850.
12	Pan B，Hsu K，Aghakouchak A，et al.Precipitation prediction skill for West Coast United States—From short to extended range［J］. Journal of Climate，2019，32（1）：16-82.
13	Wheeler M C，Hendon H H. An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index： Development of an index for monitoring and prediction［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2004，132（8）：1 917-1 932.
14	Kim H-M，Webster P J，Toma V E，et al. Predictability and prediction skill of the MJO in two operational forecasting systems［J］. Journal of Climate，2014，27（14）：5 364-5 378.
15	Neena J M，Lee J Y，Waliser D，et al. Predictability of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the Intraseasonal Variability Hindcast Experiment （ISVHE）［J］. Journal of Climate， 2014， 27（12）： 4 531-4 543.
16	Rashid H A，Hendon H H，Wheeler M C，et al. Prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation with the POAMA dynamical prediction system ［J］. Climate Dynamics，2011，36（3/4）：649-661.
17	Xiang B，Zhao M，Jiang X，et al. The 3-4-week MJO prediction skill in a GFDL coupled model［J］. Journal of Climate，2015，28（13）：5 351-5 364.
18	Marshall A G，Hendon H H，Hudson D. Visualizing and verifying probabilistic forecasts of the Madden-Julian Oscillation［J］. Geophysical Research Letters，2016，43（23）：12 278-12 286.
19	Wu J，Ren H-L，Zuo J，et al. MJO prediction skill，predictability，and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center atmospheric general circulation model［J］. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans，2016，75：78-90.
20	Lim Y，Son S-W，Kim D. MJO Prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models［J］. Journal of Climate，2018，31（10）：4 075-4 094.
21	Hsu P C，Li T，You L，et al. A spatial-temporal projection model for 10-30 day rainfall forecast in South China［J］. Climate Dynamics，2015，44（5/6）：1 227-1 244.
22	Bangqi Hsu，Zang Yuxin，Zhu Zhiwei，et al. Subseasonal-to-Seasonal（S2S） prediction using the Spatial-Temporal Projection Model （STPM）［J］. Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences，2020，43（1）： 212-224.
	徐邦琪，臧钰歆，朱志伟，等.时空投影模型（STPM）的次季节至季节（S2S）预测应用进展［J］．大气科学学报，2020，43（1）：212-224.
23	Jiang X，Waliser D E. Assessing the skill of an all-season statistical forecast model for the Madden-Julian Oscillation［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2008，136（6）：1 940-1 956.
24	Seo K H，Wang W，Gottschalck J，et al. A evaluation of MJO forecast skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models［J］. Journal of Climate，2010，22（9）：2 372-2 388.
25	Vitart F，Molteni F. Simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its teleconnections in the ECMWF forecast system［J］.Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society，2010，136（649）：842-855.
26	Vitart F，Molteni F，Jung T. Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its impact on the European weather in the ECMWF monthly forecasts［J］. International Advances in Economic Research，2011，12（1）：141-142.
27	Ding Yihui，Liang Ping. Extended range forecast basing on MJO ［J］. Meteorology，2010，36（7）： 111-122.
	丁一汇，梁萍.基于MJO的延伸预报［J］.气象，2010，36（7）：111-122.
28	Wu Jie，Ren Hongli，Xu Xiaofeng，et al. Seasonal modulation of MJO's impact on precipitatipn in China and its dynamical downscaling prediction［J］. Meteorology，2018，44（6）：737-751.
	吴捷，任宏利，许小峰，等. MJO对我国降水影响的季节调制和动力—统计降尺度预测［J］.气象，2018，44（6）：737-751.
29	Cowan T，Wheeler M C，Alves O，et al. Forecasting the extreme rainfall，low temperatures，and strong winds associated with the northern Queensland floods of February 2019［J］.Weather and Climate Extremes，2019，26：100232. DOI： 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2019.100232
30	Jayawardena I，Sumathipala W L，Basnayake B. Impact of Madden Julian Oscillation （MJO） and other meteorological phenomena on the heavy rainfall event from 19^th-28^th December，2014 over Sri Lanka［J］. Journal of the National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka，2017，45（2）：101-111.
31	Hidayat R. Modulation of indonesian rainfall variability by the Madden-Julian Oscillation［J］.Procedia Environmental Sciences，2016，33：167-177.
32	Yang Qiuming，Song Juan，Li Yi，et al. Review of impacts of the global atmospheric intraseasonal oscillation on the continuous heavy rainfall over Yangtze River Valley ［J］. Advances in Earth Science，2012，27（8）：876-884.
	杨秋明，宋娟，李熠，等. 全球大气季节内振荡对长江流域持续暴雨影响的研究进展［J］. 地球科学进展，2012，27（8）：876-884.
33	Zhang L，Wang B，Zeng Q. Impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on summer rainfall in Southeast China［J］. Journal of Climate，2009，22（2）：201-216.
34	Zhang Lina，Lin Pengfei， Xiong Zhe. Effects of intra-seasonal oscillation in tropical atmosphere on precipitation in pre-flood period of south China ［J］. Atmospheric Science，2011，35（3）：560-570.
	章丽娜，林鹏飞，熊喆.热带大气季节内振荡对华南前汛期降水的影响［J］.大气科学，2011，35（3）：560-570.
35	Jia Xiaolong，Chen Lijuan，Ren Fumin，et al.Impacts of the MJO on winter rainfall and circulation in China［J］. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences，2011，28（3）：521-533.
36	Yuan Wei，Yang Haijun. Modulation of winter precipitation in southeast China by Madden-Julian Oscillation ［J］. Journal of Peking University （Natural Science），2010，46（2）：207-214.
	袁为，杨海军. Madden-Julian振荡对中国东南部冬季降水的调制［J］.北京大学学报：自然科学版，2010，46（2）：207-214.
37	Li Ting，Yan Xin，Ju Jianhua. Impact of MJO activities on precipitation in May over Yunnan［J］. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences，2012，36（6）： 1 101-1 111.
	李汀，严欣，琚建华. MJO活动对云南5月降水的影响［J］.大气科学，2012，36（6）： 1 101-1 111.
38	Waliser D E，Jones C，Schemm J K E，et al. A statistical extended-range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation ［J］. Journal of Climate，1999，12（7）：1 918-1 939.
39	Li W，Hsu P-C，He J，et al. Extended-range forecast of spring rainfall in southern China based on the Madden-Julian Oscillation ［J］. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics，2016，128（3）： 331-345.
40	Ma Yue，Liang Ping，Li Wenkai，et al. Application of spatial-temporal projection model for extended-range forecast during meiyu season in Shanghai［J］. Meteorology，2018，44（12）：87-97.
	马悦，梁萍，李文铠，等.时空投影法在上海地区梅汛期降水延伸期预报中的应用［J］. 气象，2018，44（12）：87-97.
41	Lin Ailan，Ji Zhongping，Gu Dejun，et al.Application of atmospheric Intra-seasonal Oscillation in precipitation forecast in South China［J］. Chinese Journal of Tropical Meteorology，2016，32（6）：878-889.
	林爱兰，纪忠萍，谷德军，等.大气季节内振荡在华南降水预报中的应用［J］.热带气象学报，2016，32（6）：878-889.
42	Xavier P，Rahmat R，Cheong W K，et al. Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Southeast Asia rainfall extremes： Observations and predictability［J］. Geophysical Research Letters，2014，41（12）： 4 406-4 412.
43	Ren H-L，Ren P. Impact of Madden-Julian Oscillation upon winter extreme rainfall in Southern China： Observations and predictability in CFSv2 ［J］. Atmosphere，2017，8（192）： 1-14.
44	Ren P，Ren H-L，Fu J-X，et al. Impact of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on rainfall extremes in Southeastern China and its predictability in CFSv2 ［J］. Journal of Geophysical Research： Atmospheres，2018，123（9）： 4 423-4 442.
45	Hsu P C，J‐Y Lee，K‐J Ha. Influence of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on rainfall extremes in southern China［J］. International Journal of Climatology，2016，36（8）：1 403-1 412.
46	Fu Zhipeng，Huang Anning. Evaluation of forecasting skills and error correction of subseasonal precipitation in summer over China in BCC S2S forecasting system［C］//The 35th Annual Meeting of the Chinese Meteorological Society S7 East Asia Climate，Variation Mechanism of Extreme Climatic Events and Climate Prediction，2018.［
	付志鹏，黄安宁. BCC S2S预报系统对中国夏季次季节降水的预报技巧评估及误差订正［C］//第35届中国气象学会年会S7东亚气候、极端气候事件变异机理及气候预测，2018.］
47	Jie W，Vitart F，Wu T，et al.Simulations of the Asian summer monsoon in the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project （S2S） database［J］. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society，2017，143： 2 282-2 295.
48	Pan B，Hsu K，Aghakouchak A，et al.Precipitation prediction skill for West Coast United States-from short to extended range［J］. Journal of Climate，2019，32（1）：16-82.
49	Matsueda S，Takaya Y. The global influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on extreme temperature events［J］. Journal of Climate，2015，28（10）： 4 141-4 151.
50	Barrett B S. Connections between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and surface temperatures in winter 2018 over eastern North America ［J］. Atmospheric Science Letters，2019，20（1）： e869.DOI： 10.1002/asl.869. doi: 10.1002/asl.869
51	Zhou Y，Yang B，Chen H，et al. Effects of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on 2-m air temperature prediction over China during boreal winter in the S2S database ［J］. Climate Dynamics，2018，52（11）： 6 671-6 689.
52	Hong C C，Li T. The Extreme cold anomaly over southeast Asia in February 2008： Roles of ISO and ENSO［J］. Journal of Climate，2009，22（13）： 3 786-3 801.
53	Zhang Wei，Jiang Jing. Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on winter persistent cold events in China［J］. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences，2015，35（4）：422-429.
	张伟，江静.热带大气季内振荡对中国冬季持续低温事件的影响［J］.气象科学，2015，35（4）：422-429.
54	Zhou S，Heureux M L，Weaver S，et al. A composite study of the MJO influence on the surface air temperature and precipitation over the Continental United States［J］. Climate Dynamics，2011，38（7）： 1 459-1 471.
55	Johnson N，Collins D，Feldstein S，et al. Skillful wintertime North American temperature forecasts out to 4 weeks based on the state of ENSO and the MJO［J］. Weather and Forecasting，2014，29（1）：23-38.
56	He J，Lin H，Wu Z. Another look at influences of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the wintertime East Asian weather［J］. Journal of Geophysical Research，2011，116（D3）： D03109.DOI：10.1029/2010JD014787. doi: 10.1029/2010JD014787
57	Zhu Z，Li T. Statistical extended-range forecast of winter surface air temperature and extremely cold days over China［J］. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society，2017，143（704）： 1 528-1 538.
58	Zhu Z，Li T. Extended-range forecasting of Chinese summer surface air temperature and heat waves［J］. Climate Dynamics，2017，50（5/6）： 2 007-2 021.
59	Li Chengcheng. Study on the Pad Scale Predictibility of Summer Temperature and Precipitation in China Based on BCC_CSM1.2 and CFSv2 Model Data ［D］. Chengdu：Chengdu University of Information Technology，2018.
	李成程.基于BCC_CSM1.2和CFSv2模式资料对中国夏季温度和降水的候尺度可预报性研究［D］.成都：成都信息工程大学，2018.
60	Hsu P C，Qian Y，Liu Y，et al. Role of abnormally enhanced MJO over the Western Pacific in the formation and subseasonal predictability of the record-breaking Northeast Asian heatwave in the summer of 2018［J］. Journal of Climate，2020，33（8）： 3 333-3 349.
61	Lin H.Predicting the dominant patterns of subseasonal variability of wintertime surface air temperature in extratropical Northern Hemisphere［J］. Geophysical Research Letters，2018，45（9）：4 381-4 389.
62	Vitart F，Robertson W A.The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project （S2S） and the prediction of extreme events［J］.npj Climate and Atmospheric Science，2018，1（1）：3. DOI：10.1038/s41612-018-0013-0. doi: 10.1038/s41612-018-0013-0
63	Klotzbach P J. The Madden-Julian Oscillation's impacts on worldwide tropical cyclone activity［J］. Journal of Climate，2014，27（6）： 2 317-2 330.
64	Maloney E D，Hartmann D L. Modulation of Eastern North Pacific hurricanes by the Madden-Julian Oscillation［J］. Journal of Climate，2000，13（13）： 1 451-1 460.
65	Barrett B S，Leslie L M. Links between tropical cyclone activity and Madden-Julian Oscillation phase in the North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2009，137（2）：727-744.
66	Kim J-H，Ho C-H，Kim H-S，et al. Systematic variation of summertime tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific in relation to the Madden-Julian Oscillation［J］. Journal of Climate，2008，21（6）： 1 171-1 191.
67	Li R C Y，Zhou W. Modulation of Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity by the ISO. Part I： Genesis and intensity［J］. Journal of Climate，2013，26（9）：2 919-2 930.
68	Hall J D， Matthews A J， Karoly D J. The modulation of tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region by the Madden-Julian oscillation［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2001，129（12）：2 970-2 982.
69	Kikuchi K，Wang B. Formation of tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean associated with two types of tropical intraseasonal oscillation modes［J］. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan，2010，88：475-496.
70	Klotzbach P J. On the Madden-Julian Oscillation-Atlantic hurricane relationship ［J］. Journal of Climate，2010，23（2）： 282-293.
71	Klotzbach P J. El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation，the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Atlantic basin tropical cyclone rapid intensification［J］. Journal of Geophysical Research，2012，117（D14104）：1-12.
72	Leroy A，Wheeler M C. Statistical prediction of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2008，136（10）： 3 637-3 654.
73	Qian Y， Hsu P-C， Murakami H，et al. A hybrid dynamical-statistical model for advancing subseasonal tropical cyclone prediction over the western North Pacific［J］. Geophysical Research Letters，2020，47：e2020GL090095. DOI：10.1029/2020GL090095. doi: 10.1029/2020GL090095
74	Zhou H，Hsu P-C，Qian Y. Close linkage between quasi biweekly oscillation and tropical cyclone intensification over the western North Pacific［J］. Atmospheric Science Letter，2018，19： e826. DOI：10.1002/asl.826. doi: 10.1002/asl.826
75	Zhu Z，Li T，Bai L，et al. Extended-range forecast for the temporal distribution of clustering tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific ［J］. Theoretical and Applied Climatology，2016，130（3/4）： 865-877.
76	Lee C-Y，Camargo S J，Vitart F，et al. Subseasonal tropical cyclone genesis prediction and MJO in the S2S dataset［J］. Weather and Forecasting，2018，33（4）： 967-988.
77	Lee C-Y，Camargo S J，Vitart F，et al. Subseasonal predictions of tropical cyclone occurrence and ACE in the S2S dataset［J］. Weather and Forecasting，2020，35（3）： 921-938.
78	Li Ting，Yang Xiuqun，Ju Jianhua. Characteristics of intra-seasonal oscillation of summer monsoon in the South China Sea and its response to MJO anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean ［J］. Chinese Science： Earth Science，2013，43（4）：582-593.
	李汀，杨修群，琚建华.南海夏季风季节内振荡特征及其对热带印度洋MJO活动异常的响应［J］.中国科学：地球科学，2013，43（4）：582-593.
79	Zhou Qun，Huan Huanqing. Impact of the Madden-Julian oscillation on winter monsoon anomaly over the South China Sea［J］. Ocean Forecast，2016，33（3）： 9-17.
	周群，黄焕卿.MJO对我国南海冬季风异常的影响［J］.海洋预报，2016，33（3）： 9-17.
80	Goswami B N，Xavier P K. Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks ［J］. Geophysical Research Letters，2003，30（18）： 1966. DOI： 10.1029/2003GL017810. doi: 10.1029/2003GL017810
81	Dwivedi S，Mittal A K，Goswami B N. An empirical rule for extended range prediction of duration of Indian summer monsoon breaks ［J］. Geophysical Research Letters，2006，331（18）：122-140.
82	Moron V，Bombardi R，Hendon H，et al. Monsoon Sub-Seasonal Prediction［M］. Sixth，WMO，International Workshop on Monsoons （IWM-VI），2017. DOI：10.1142/9789811216602_0026. doi: 10.1142/9789811216602_0026
83	Tian B，Waliser D，Kahn R，et al. Modulation of Atlantic aerosols by the Madden-Julian Oscillation ［J］. Journal of Geophysical Research，2011，116（D15）：D15108. DOI：10.1029/2010JD015201. doi: 10.1029/2010JD015201
84	Tian B D，Waliser R，Kahn Q，et al. Does the Madden-Julian Oscillation influence aerosol variability？［J］. Journal of Geophysical Research： Atmospheres，2008，113（D12）：D12215. DOI： 10.1029/2007JD009372. doi: 10.1029/2007JD009372
85	Guo Y B，Tian R A，Kahn O，et al. Tropical Atlantic dust and smoke aerosol variations related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR observations ［J］. Journal of Geophysical Research： Atmospheres，2013，118（10）：4 947-4 963.
86	Zhu C W. The 30-60 day intraseasonal oscillation over the western North Pacific Ocean and its impacts on summer flooding in China during 1998 ［J］. Geophysical Research Letters，2003，30（18）： 223-250.
87	Barlow M，Wheeler M，Lyon B，et al. Modulation of daily precipitation over Southwest Asia by the Madden-Julian Oscillation ［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2010，133（12）：3 579-3 594.
88	Tangang F T，Juneng L，Salimun E，et al. On the roles of the northeast cold surge，the Borneo vortex，the Madden‐Julian Oscillation，and the Indian Ocean Dipole during the extreme 2006/2007 flood in southern Peninsular Malaysia［J］. Geophysical Research Letters，2008，35（14）： 237-255.
89	Aldrian E. Dominant factors of jakartas three largest floods ［J］. Journal Hidrosfir Indonesia，2008，3（3）：105-112.
90	Zhang C D.Madden-Julian Oscillation： Bridging weather and climate［J］. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society，2013，94（12）： 1 849-1 870.
91	Vitart F，Balmaseda M，Ferranti L，et al. Extended-Range Prediction［M］. European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts，2019.
92	Goswami B N，Wheeler M C. Intraseasonal Variability and Forecasting： A Review of Recent Research［M］. World Scientific，2011.
93	Ren Hongli，Wu Jie，Zhao Chongbo，et al. Progresses of MJO prediction researches and developments［J］. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science，2015，26（6）：658-668.
	任宏利，吴捷，赵崇博，等.MJO预报研究进展［J］.应用气象学报，2015，26（6）：658-668.
94	Wu Jie，Ren Hongli，Zhao Chongbo，et al. Research and application of operational MJO monitoring and predition products in Beijing Climate Center［J］. Journal of Applied Meteorological Science，2016，27（6）： 641-653.
	吴捷，任宏利，赵崇博，等.国家气候中心MJO监测预测业务产品研发及应用［J］. 应用气象学报，2016，27（6）： 641-653.
95	Liang Ping，He Jinhai，Mu Haizhen. Application of MJO in extended-range forecast［J］. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology，2013，3（1）： 31-38.
	梁萍，何金海，穆海振.MJO在延伸期预报中的应用进展［J］.气象科技进展，2013，3（1）： 31-38.
96	Du Liangmin，Ke Zongjian. A test method for the process event prediction in extended range ［J］. Chinese Journal of Applied Meteorology，2013，24（6）：686-694.
	杜良敏，柯宗建.一种适用于延伸期过程事件预报的检验方法［J］.应用气象学报，2013，24（6）：686-694.
97	Jones C，Hazra A，Carvalho L M V. The Madden-Julian Oscillation and boreal winter forecast skill： An analysis of NCEP CFSv2 reforecasts ［J］. Journal of Climate，2015，28（15）： 6 297-6 307.
98	Lin H，Brunet G，Derome J. Forecast skill of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in two Canadian atmospheric models ［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2008，136（11）： 4 130-4 149.
99	He Jinhai，Liang Ping，Sun Guowu. Consideration on extended-range forecast and its application study［J］. Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology，2013，3（1）：11-17.
	何金海，梁萍，孙国武.延伸期预报的思考及其应用研究进展［J］.气象科技进展，2013，3（1）：11-17.
100	Jin Ronghua，Ma Jie，Ren Hongchang，et al. Advances and development countermeasures of 10~30 days extended-range forecasting technology in China［J］. Advance in Earth Sciences，2019，34（8）： 814-825.
	金荣花，马杰，任宏昌，等.我国10~30天延伸期预报技术进展与发展对策［J］. 地球科学进展，2019，34（8）： 814-825.
101	Vigaud N，Robertson A W，Tippett M K.Multi-model ensembling of subseasonal precipitation forecasts over North America［J］. Monthly Weather Review，2017，145（10）：3 913-3 928.

[1]	王澄海, 张晟宁, 张飞民, 李课臣, 杨凯. 论全球变暖背景下中国西北地区降水增加问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 980-989.
[2]	王忠静,石羽佳,张腾. TRMM遥感降水低估还是高估中国大陆地区的降水？[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(6): 604-615.
[3]	王鹏,刘磊,刘西川,胡帅,赵世军,姬文明,高太长. 球载云降水粒子探测器研究现状及进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(7): 704-714.
[4]	张宏文,续昱,高艳红. 1982— 2005年青藏高原降水再循环率的模拟研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(3): 297-307.
[5]	高艳红,许建伟,张萌,姜凤友. 中国 400 mm等降水量变迁与干湿变化研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(11): 1101-1112.
[6]	李修仓,姜彤,吴萍. 水分再循环计算模型的研究进展及其展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(10): 1029-1040.
[7]	谢彦君, 任福民, 李国平, 王铭杨, 杨慧. 影响中国双台风活动气候特征研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(1): 101-108.
[8]	金荣花,马杰,任宏昌,尹姗,蔡芗宁,黄威. 我国 10～ 30天延伸期预报技术进展与发展对策[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(8): 814-825.
[9]	蒋诗威,周鑫. 中国东南地区中世纪暖期和小冰期夏季风降水研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(7): 697-705.
[10]	朱月佳,邢蕊,朱明佳,王东勇,邱学兴. 联合概率方法在安徽强对流潜势预报中的应用和检验[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(7): 731-746.
[11]	杨慧,任福民,杨明仁. 不同强度热带气旋对中国降水变化的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(7): 747-756.
[12]	窦芳丽,陆其峰,郭杨. 全天候卫星微波观测资料变分同化研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(11): 1120-1130.
[13]	谢鑫昌,杨云川,田忆,廖丽萍,韦钧培,周津羽,陈立华. 广西降水非均匀性多尺度特征与综合评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(11): 1152-1164.
[14]	杨秋明. 长江下游夏季低频温度和高温天气的延伸期预报研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(4): 385-395.
[15]	陈亮, 段建平, 马柱国. 大气环流形势客观分型及其与中国降水的联系[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(4): 396-403.

阅读次数

全文

摘要