地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (11): 1205 -1211. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.11.1205

   下一篇

灾害风险科学发展与科技减灾
史培军 1, 2, 3, 孔锋 1, 3, 叶谦 1, 汪明 1, 3, 刘凯 1, 3   
  1. 1.北京师范大学 地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875
    2.北京师范大学 环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室, 北京 100875
    3.北京师范大学 民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院, 北京 100875
  • 出版日期:2014-11-27

Disaster Risk Science Development and Disaster Risk Reduction Using Science and Technology

Peijun Shi 1, 2, 3, Feng Kong 1, 3, Qian Ye 1, Ming Wang 1, 3, Kai Liu 1, 3   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    2. Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster of Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
    3. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China
  • Online:2014-11-27 Published:2014-11-20
全文 ( 4 ) 下载PDF ( 1160 )

对近期召开的一系列国际灾害风险会议讨论的灾害风险科学关键前沿问题进行了分析。针对正在制定的国际减轻灾害风险后兵库战略框架(HFA2), 就未来灾害风险科学发展与科技减灾趋势做了综合研判, 提出加深对灾害系统复杂性的认识, 即从灾害系统各要素的相互作用认识灾害系统的复杂性, 从全球变化的区域特征与成因机制认识气候变化风险的复杂性, 从区域发展水平与模式认识巨灾风险的复杂性。提出从灾害系统的复杂性厘定科技减轻灾害风险的战略与对策, 即建立一体化的综合风险防御范式, 建立多空间尺度的综合风险防范体系, 建立多功能的巨灾风险防范金融体系, 建立多利益相关者防范灾害风险的凝聚力模式, 建立风险信息服务与对策仿真模拟综合集成平台。

关键词: 灾害系统复杂性, 防灾减灾, 综合灾害风险防范, 全球变化, 可持续性

Based on a series of international conferences for establishing HFA2 framework, this paper analyzed key issues of frontier of disaster risk science, integrated disaster prevention and mitigation strategies and integrated disaster risk governance. The future direction of disaster risk science was comprehensively discussed according to the widely discussed Post 2015 Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2). It was proposed to deepen the cognition of the complexity of disaster system in terms of recognizing the complexity of disaster system from the interaction among various elements of the system, recognizing the complexity of climate change risk from the regional characteristics and formation mechanism of the global climate change and recognizing the complexity of the catastrophe risk from the regional development levels and patterns. Furthermore, it was suggested to make integrated disaster risk reduction strategies and countermeasures from the perspective of the complexity of the disaster system, including the establishment of regional integrated disaster risk governance framework to face climate change, the establishment of integrated disaster risk governance system in multi-spatial scale, the establishment of disaster risk governance financial system integrating the insurance, bonds and lottery, the establishment of consilience mode in integrated risk governance considering multi-stakeholder and the establishment of modeling and simulation platform integrated disaster risk information services and disaster risk reduction strategies. Finally, it was pointed out that the assessment of disaster risk levels for different regions in multispatial scale can provide robust scientific support for integrated disaster risk governance of the world and regions, industries and enterprises so as to improve response to global change and guarantee a global and regional sustainable development.

Key words: Complexity of disaster system, Disaster prevention and mitigation, Integrated disaster risk governance, Global change, Sustainability

中图分类号: 

[1] Ammann W J. Preface[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 303.
[2] UNISDR. The Pre-zero Draft of the Post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction[EB/OL].(2014-08-10)[2014-08-15].http:∥www.unisder.org/preparatory/post2015.
[3] Ishigaki Kazuko, Mochiguki Junko. Post-2015 framework for disaster risk reduction: A proposal for monitoring progress[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 304-307.
[4] Demir M, Boaelling C, Riley K. International symposium on disaster medical and public health management: Revew of hyogo framework[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 312-317.
[5] Sassa Kyoji. Third world landslide forum[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 324-326.
[6] Villagran de leonetal, Juan Carlos, Hecheltjen Antje, et al. United Nations/Geemany Expert Meeting on Space-based information for flood and drought risk reduction[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 327-331.
[7] Waidyanathal Nuwan. IOTX Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) workshop[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 341-344.
[8] Waidyanathal Nuwan. 2nd Asia information sustains for crisis response and management[J]. Planet @risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 345-347.
[9] Kundak Seda. The 23rd Society for Risk Analysis-Europe (SRA-Europe) conference: Analysis and governance of risk beyond boundaries[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 337-340.
[10] Schreiber Franziska. Resilient cites 2014, 5th global forum on urban resilience and adaptation[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 318-323.
[11] Rovins Jane E, Doyle Emma E H, Huggins T J. 2nd Integrated research on disaster risk science: A tool for sustainability[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 332-336.
[12] Shi Peijun, Wang Ming, Ye Qian. Achievements, experience and lessons, challenges and opportunities for China’s 25 years comprehensive disaster reduction[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 353-355.
[13] Murray Virginia. International conference working toward post 2015 disaster risk reduction framework[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 348-352.
[14] Armstrong C, Calking J, Carter A. Mechanism for international science advice for disaster risk management: Discussion of a proposal to support the post-2015 agenda[J]. Planet @Risk, Special Issue for the Post-2015 Framework for DRR, 2014, 2(5): 308-311.
[15] Shi Peijun. On the theory of disaster research and its practice[J]. Journal of Nanjing University, 1991, (Special): 37-42.
[史培军. 灾害研究的理论与实践[J]. 南京大学学报, 1991, (专辑): 37-42.]
[16] Shi Peijun. Theory and practice of disaster study[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 1996, 5(4): 6-17.
[史培军. 再论研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报, 1996, 5(4): 6-17.]
[17] Shi Peijun. Theory on disaster science and disaster dynamics[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2002, 11(3): 1-9.
[史培军. 三论灾害系统研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2002, 11(3): 1-9.]
[18] Shi Peijun. Theory and practice on disaster system research in a fourth time[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2005, 14(6): 1-7.
[史培军. 四论灾害系统研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2005, 14(6): 1-7.]
[19] Shi Peijun. Theory and practice on disaster system research in a fifth time[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2009, 18(5): 1-9.
[史培军. 五论灾害系统研究的理论与实践[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2009, 18(5): 1-9.]
[20] Shi Peijun, Du Juan, Ji Mengxin, et al. Urban risk assessment research of major natural disasters in China[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2006, (2): 170-177.
[史培军, 杜鹃, 冀萌新, 等. 中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, (2): 170-177.]
[21] IPCC SREX. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation[M]. Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA: University PressUK, and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
[22] Shi Peijun, Li Ning, Ye Qian, et al. Research on global environmental change and integrated disaster risk governance[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24(4): 428-435.
[史培军, 李宁, 叶谦, 等. 全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(4): 428-435.]
[23] Shi Peijun, Lü Lili. Disaster system: Disaster cluster, disaster chain and disaster compound[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2014, in press.
[史培军, 吕丽莉. 灾害系统: 灾害群、灾害链与灾害遭遇[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2014, 待刊.]
[24] Shi Peijun, Wang Ming, Hu Xiaobing, et al. Integrated risk governance consilience mode of social-ecological systems[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2014, 69(6): 863-876.
[史培军, 汪明, 胡小兵, 等. 社会—生态系统综合风险防范的凝聚力模式[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(6): 863-876.]
[25] Shi Peijun, Li Man. New model of large-scale disaster risk transformation[J]. Journal of Chinese Finance, 2014, (5): 45-47.
[史培军, 李曼. 巨灾风险转移新模式[J]. 中国金融, 2014, (5): 45-47.]
[26] Shi Peijun. On the role of government in integrated disaster risk governance—Based on practices in China[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2012, 3(3): 139-146.
[27] Shi Peijun, Ye Qian, Han Guoyi, et al. Living with global climate diversity—Suggestions on international governance for coping with climate change risk[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 2012, 3(4): 177-183.
[1] 涂梦昭,刘志锋,何春阳,任强,卢文路. 基于 GRACE卫星数据的中国地下水储量监测进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(6): 643-656.
[2] 王思佳,刘鹄,赵文智,李中恺. 干旱、半干旱区地下水可持续性研究评述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(2): 210-223.
[3] 马学成, 巩杰, 柳冬青, 张金茜. 社会生态系统研究态势:文献计量分析视角[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(4): 435-444.
[4] 曲建升, 肖仙桃, 曾静静. 国际气候变化科学百年研究态势分析 *[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(11): 1193-1202.
[5] 宋晓谕, 高峻, 李新, 李巍岳, 张中浩, 王亮绪, 付晶, 黄春林, 高峰. 遥感与网络数据支撑的城市可持续性评价:进展与前瞻[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(10): 1075-1083.
[6] 史培军, 王爱慧, 孙福宝, 李宁, 叶涛, 徐伟, 王静爱, 杨建平, 周洪建. 全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(8): 775-781.
[7] 吴炳方, 邢强. 遥感的科学推动作用与重点应用领域[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(7): 751-762.
[8] 黄邦钦, 柳欣. 边缘海浮游生态系统对生物泵的调控作用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(3): 385-395.
[9] 艾丽坤, 王晓毅. 全球变化研究中自然科学和社会科学协同方法的探讨[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(11): 1278-1286.
[10] 房启飞, 张虎权. 地球系统变化对叠层石衰减影响的研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(9): 1003-1010.
[11] 魏学琼, 叶瑜, 崔玉娟, 李蓓蓓, 袁存, 方修琦. 中国历史土地覆被变化重建研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(9): 1037-1045.
[12] 刘贤赵, 张勇, 宿庆, 田艳林, 全斌, 王国安. 现代陆生植物碳同位素组成对气候变化的响应研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(12): 1341-1354.
[13] 邬建国, 何春阳, 张庆云, 于德永, 黄甘霖, 黄庆旭. 全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(12): 1315-1324.
[14] 汪品先. 对地球系统科学的理解与误解——献给第三届地球系统科学大会[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(11): 1277-1279.
[15] WuGuoxiong, LinHai, ZouXiaolei, LiuBoqi, HeBian. 全球气候变化研究与科学数据[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(1): 15-22.
阅读次数
全文


摘要

版权所有 © 《地球科学进展》编辑部
地址：甘肃省兰州市天水中路8号
QQ：114723517
电话：0931-8762293　E-mail：adearth@lzb.ac.cn
陇ICP备2021001824号-5　 甘公网安备62010202000687