气候变化正在给公共卫生带来不容忽视的挑战，对病原微生物和传染病的监测预警是预 防大规模公共卫生危机和生物安全风险的重要前提。然而，目前整体缺乏气候与环境变化对病原 微生物传播的监测预警的研究和关注，特别是针对通过空气传播的病原微生物带来的健康威胁。 通过分析病原微生物监测预警的必要性和前瞻性，总结了病原微生物及传染病监测预警领域面临 的关键科学问题，梳理了传染病监测预警的方法和应用的国内外研究基础与条件，包括气候变化 对大气中病原微生物的影响、大气中病原微生物的监测、传染病预测模型与系统等。未来亟需加 强大气病原微生物形成、来源解析、环境演变和传播机制的基础研究；加快推进大气病原微生物的 高精度实时监测技术研发，通过多部门合作建立国家级、省级病原微生物和传染病监测网络；从人 工智能、大数据和基因组学等多个维度切入，强化数据收集与共享，优先发展传染病的预测与预 警，为应对气候危机下的传染病监测预警与生物安全风险防范提供科技支撑。

Abstract：The ongoing public health challenges posed by climate change cannot be ignored. Monitoring and early warning of pathogenic microorganisms and infectious diseases is a key precondition for preventing large-scale public health crisis and biosecurity risks. However, insufficient research and attention have been paid to the monitoring and early warning of pathogenic microorganism spread due to climate and environmental change, especially for the health threats caused by airborne pathogenic microorganisms. By analyzing the necessity and foresight of monitoring and early warning of pathogenic microorganisms, the key scientific problems in the field of monitoring and early warning of pathogenic microorganisms and infectious diseases are summarized, and the research basis and conditions of monitoring and early warning methods and applications of infectious diseases are sorted out. It includes the impact of climate change on pathogenic microorganisms in the atmosphere, the monitoring of pathogenic microorganisms in the atmosphere, and the prediction model and system of infectious diseases. The urgent need to strengthen the basic research on the formation, source analysis, environmental evolution and transmission mechanism of atmospheric pathogenic microorganisms in the future is discussed in this paper. The research and development of high-precision real-time monitoring technology for pathogenic microorganisms in the atmosphere should be accelerated, and national and provincial pathogenic microorganisms and infectious disease monitoring networks should be established through multi-departmental cooperation. Multiple dimensions such as artificial intelligence, big data and genomics should be used as entry points to enhance data collection and sharing. Priority should be given to the development of prediction and early warning of infectious diseases to provide scientific and technological support for infectious disease monitoring and early warning and biosecurity risk prevention under the climate crisis.