过去千年中国年代和百年尺度冷暖阶段的干湿格局变化研究

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.005

地球科学进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (1): 18 -25. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2020.005

郝志新 ^1, ²(

),吴茂炜 ¹,张学珍 ^1, ²,刘洋 ¹,郑景云 ^1, ²(

)

^1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，中国科学院陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
^2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049

收稿日期:2019-09-09 修回日期:2019-12-15 出版日期:2020-01-20
通讯作者: 郑景云 E-mail:haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn;zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目“代用指标物理意义与数据挖掘及共享技术研究”(2017YFA0603301);国家自然科学基金项目“中世纪暖期与小冰期中国东部年代际干湿格局差异及其机制研究”(41831174)

An Overview on Changes of Dry/Wet Pattern in China in Decadal to Centennial Warm and Cold Periods During the Past Millennium

Zhixin Hao ^1, ²( ),Maowei Wu ¹,Xuezhen Zhang ^1, ²,Yang Liu ¹,Jingyun Zheng ^1, ²( )

^1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
^2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2019-09-09 Revised:2019-12-15 Online:2020-01-20 Published:2020-02-27
Contact: Jingyun Zheng E-mail:haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn;zhengjy@igsnrr.ac.cn
About author:Hao Zhixin (1975-), female, Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Professor. Research areas include climate change. E-mail: haozx@igsnrr.ac.cn
Supported by:
the National R&D Program of China "Studies on the physical explanations of proxy indicator and technology of data mining and sharing"(2017YFA0603301);The National Natural Science Foundation of China "Studies on the differences and mechanisms of the inter-decadal dry-wet patterns over eastern China during the medieval climate anomaly and the Little Ice Age"(41831174)

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揭示过去千年旱涝格局的多尺度变化特征，是近年气候变化研究的一个“热点”问题，对理解、预估未来气候增暖背景下的降水变化时空差异具有重要价值。依据已发表文献，对过去千年中国冷暖与干湿格局变化的多尺度配置特征进行了总结梳理与对比分析。主要结论是：尽管在过去千年，不同冷暖阶段的中国干湿格局存在差异；但集合平均显示，无论年代还是百年尺度的温暖时段，中国东部干湿均大致呈自南向北的“旱（华南）—涝（长江中下游）—旱（黄淮地区）”分布格局；而在相对寒冷时段，则主要呈东湿西干的东西分异格局；气候由寒冷转为温暖可能会导致黄淮地区相对转干，江南地区（特别是湘、赣流域）相对转湿。这表明：在当前气候增暖背景下，中国东部自20世纪70年代以来发生的“南涝北旱”格局可能是过去千年温暖与干湿格局变化配置特征的重现。然而从更长尺度的阶段差异看，中世纪气候异常期中国干湿大致呈“西部干旱—半干旱区偏干、西南—华北—东北偏湿、东南又偏干”的特征，小冰期则反之。这既说明现有重建结果尚存在不确定性，也表明中国干湿格局对不同尺度冷暖变化配置的关系可能极为复杂。

关键词: 过去千年, 中国, 冷暖波动, 干湿格局, 多尺度变化

Revealing the multi-scale variation characteristics of the drought/flood patterns for the past millennium has been a hot spot in climate change research in recent years. It has significance for understanding and predicting the temporal and spatial differences of precipitation changes in the context of future climate warming. Based on publications on the peer-reviewed journals, here, we summarized and compared the combinations between cold/warm periods and dry/wet spatial patterns at multi-scales in China over the past millennium. The main conclusions are: although there are differences in China's dry/wet patterns in different cold and warm periods for the past millennium, the ensemble mean shows that the dry/wet patterns in eastern China in decadal or centennial warm periods are approximately "dry (South China)-wet (middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River)-dry (Huanghuai Area)" from south to north, while in the relatively cold periods it mainly shows a "wet in east and dry in west" pattern. The climate changes from cold to warm usually lead to a drying trend in the Huanghuai Area, and a wetting trend in the Jiangnan area (especially the Yangtze River basin in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces). This shows that the "flood in south and drought in north" pattern in eastern China since the 1970s under the background of global warming may be a re-occurrence of the matching characteristics of cold/warm climate and dry/wet patterns in China for the past millennium. However, from the perspective of the longer-scale cold and warm stages, the dry/wet pattern in China tend to be "dry in the arid and semi-arid areas in western China; wet in southwestern, northern, and northeastern China; and dry in southeastern China" in the Medieval Climate Anomaly, and an opposite pattern shows in the Little Ice Age. It suggests that there are still uncertainties in the current climate reconstructions, and it also shows that the mechanism of dry/wet pattern responding to multi-scale temperature fluctuations might be extremely complicated.

Key words: Past millennium, China, Temperature fluctuation, Dry/wet pattern, Multi-scale changes

中图分类号:

P467

表1 公元 950年以来中国东部旱涝型的降水多寡分布特征 ^{[

4
,

5
]}

Table 1 Precipitation distribution of different drought/flood patterns in eastern China since 950 ^{[

4
,

5
]}

旱涝型	降水多寡分布	旱涝型	降水多寡分布
1_a	全区多雨，中心在长江流域	3	长江流域少雨，江南、江北多雨
1_b	长江流域多雨，华南、华北少雨	4	江南少雨、江北多雨
2	江南多雨、江北少雨	5	全区少雨

表1 公元 950年以来中国东部旱涝型的降水多寡分布特征 ^{[

4
,

5
]}

Table 1 Precipitation distribution of different drought/flood patterns in eastern China since 950 ^{[

4
,

5
]}

旱涝型	降水多寡分布	旱涝型	降水多寡分布
1_a	全区多雨，中心在长江流域	3	长江流域少雨，江南、江北多雨
1_b	长江流域多雨，华南、华北少雨	4	江南少雨、江北多雨
2	江南多雨、江北少雨	5	全区少雨

表2 中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和 20世纪中国东部旱涝型发生频率及其与千年平均的对比（据参考文献[ 5 , 20 ]修改）

Table 2 Frequencies of different drought/flood patterns in eastern China during the MCA, LIA, the 20^th century, and the past millennium (modified after references [5, 20])

时间段旱涝型	1_a	1_b	2	3	4	5	总年数/a
950—1249年	0.130（39）	0.153（46）	0.243（73）	0.187（56）	0.167（50）	0.120（36）	300
1450—1849年	0.183（73）	0.148（59）	0.228（91）	0.193（77）	0.153（61）	0.098（39）	400
1550—1849年	0.193（58）	0.157（47）	0.207（62）	0.183（55）	0.170（51）	0.090（27）	300
1900—2005年	0.094（10）	0.160（17）	0.189（20）	0.189（20）	0.170 （18）	0.198（21）	106
950—1999年	0.164（172）	0.144（151）	0.230（241）	0.186（195）	0.172（181）	0.105（110）	1 050

表2 中世纪气候异常期、小冰期和 20世纪中国东部旱涝型发生频率及其与千年平均的对比（据参考文献[ 5 , 20 ]修改）

Table 2 Frequencies of different drought/flood patterns in eastern China during the MCA, LIA, the 20^th century, and the past millennium (modified after references [5, 20])

时间段旱涝型	1_a	1_b	2	3	4	5	总年数/a
950—1249年	0.130（39）	0.153（46）	0.243（73）	0.187（56）	0.167（50）	0.120（36）	300
1450—1849年	0.183（73）	0.148（59）	0.228（91）	0.193（77）	0.153（61）	0.098（39）	400
1550—1849年	0.193（58）	0.157（47）	0.207（62）	0.183（55）	0.170（51）	0.090（27）	300
1900—2005年	0.094（10）	0.160（17）	0.189（20）	0.189（20）	0.170 （18）	0.198（21）	106
950—1999年	0.164（172）	0.144（151）	0.230（241）	0.186（195）	0.172（181）	0.105（110）	1 050

图1 中世纪气候异常期（a）和小冰期（b, c）的干湿格局^{[

21
,

22
]}
（a）、（b）中每个点代表一条干湿/降水代用指标序列，每条序列若在统计时段内超过2/3的年份数大于（小于）中值则记为“干（湿）”，超过1/2但小于2/3的年份数大于（小于）中值则记为“偏干（偏湿）”；（c）9个PMIP3模式（BCC-CSM1-1、 CCSM4、 CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2、 FGOALS-s2、 GISS-E2-R-p121、 HadCM3、 IPSL-CM5A-LR、 MPI-ESM-P、 MRI-CGCM3）模拟的LIA期间平均夏季降水距平（以850—1850年的平均状态为基准）的中值分布格局

Fig.1 Dry/wet patterns during the MCA (a) and LIA (b, c)^{[

21
,

22
]}
Each dot in (a) and (b) represents a proxy series for dry-wet/precipitation. A dot is classified as dry (or wet) if the index is greater (or less) than its median in more than 2/3 of the time in a given period, and classified as moderately dry (or moderately wet) if the index is greater (or less) than its median in more than 1/2 but less than 2/3 of the time in a given period; (c) The summer precipitation anomalies during the LIA relative to 850-1850 derived from the median of the nine PMIP3 models (BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2, FGOALS-s2, GISS-E2-R-p121, HadCM3, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-ESM-P, MRI-CGCM3)

图2 过去2 000 年中4个温暖百年（a~d）和5个寒冷百年（e~i）的中国东中部干湿格局分布
阴影区表示异常值达到90%以上显著性水平；数据引自参考文献[ 24 , 25 ]

Fig.2 Drought/flood patterns for central-eastern China in the four warm periods (a~d) and the five cold periods (e~i) during the past 2 000 years
Shaded area passed 90% confidence level, and data are extracted from the references [24,25]

图3 重建的5个寒冷百年（a）和4个温暖百年（b）中国东部干湿格局的集合平均及其空间差异（c）
具体时段参见图2；阴影区表示达90%显著性水平；数据引自参考文献[ 25 ]

Fig.3 The ensemble mean of drought/flood patterns in the five cold periods (a) and the four warm periods (b) and their difference (c)
The time periods are shown in Fig.2. Shaded area passed 90% confidence level. Data are extracted from the reference [ 25 ]

图4 1471—1970年冷、暖年代的中国干湿格局差异
（a）寒冷年代的平均旱涝等级；（b）温暖年代的平均旱涝等级；（c）冷、暖年代平均旱涝等级差值；“D”代表“干”，“W”代表“湿”；数据引自参考文献[ 6 ]

Fig.4 Dry/wet patterns and their differences in the cold and warm decades during 1471-1970
(a) The averaged dry/wet grade in cold decades， (b) The averaged dry/wet grade in warm decades, and (c) their difference. "D" indicates dry, and "W" indicates wet. Data are extracted from reference [ 6 ]

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