地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (10): 1048 -1057. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.10.1048.

研究论文 上一篇    下一篇

1983—2015年我国农业区域三类骤旱时空分布特征分析
张翔 1, 2( ), 陈能成 1, 3, *( ), 胡楚丽 4, 彭小婷 5   
  1. 1.武汉大学测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430079
    2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃 兰州 730020
    3.地球空间信息技术协同创新中心,湖北 武汉 430079
    4.中国地质大学(武汉)信息工程学院,湖北 武汉 430074
    5.武汉市测绘研究院,湖北 武汉 430022
  • 收稿日期:2018-08-28 修回日期:2018-09-27 出版日期:2018-10-10
  • 通讯作者: 陈能成 E-mail:zhangxiangsw@whu.edu.cn;cnc@whu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目“基于星地多源数据的干旱演变过程连续监测与定量分析方法研究”(编号:41801339);中国气象局干旱气象科学研究开放基金项目“中国区域农业干旱指数PADI的适应性研究”(编号:IAM201704)资助.

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Three Kinds of Flash Droughts over Agricultural Land in China from 1983 to 2015

Xiang Zhang 1, 2( ), Nengcheng Chen 1, 3, *( ), Chuli Hu 4, Xiaoting Peng 5   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping and Remote Sensing, Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China
    2.Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of China Meteorological Administration, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, China
    3.Collaborative Innovation Center of Geospatial Technology, Wuhan 430079, China
    4.Faculty of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
    5.Wuhan Geomatics Institute, Wuhan 430022, China
  • Received:2018-08-28 Revised:2018-09-27 Online:2018-10-10 Published:2018-11-16
  • Contact: Nengcheng Chen E-mail:zhangxiangsw@whu.edu.cn;cnc@whu.edu.cn
  • About author:

    First author:Zhang Xiang(1989-),male,Xiaogan City,Hubei Province,Assistant Professor. Research areas include remote sensing and drought.E-mail:zhangxiangsw@whu.edu.cn

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Multi-source remote sensing and ground data based continuous monitoring and quantitative analysis method for drought propagation"(No.41801339);China Meteorological Administration Drought Research Fund Adaptability study of PADI index over China agricultural land (No.IAM201704).
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当前全球和区域骤旱现象时有发生,短时间内造成巨大的社会经济影响,已经成为干旱研究的前沿热点之一。然而由于其驱动因素多样、时空过程复杂,骤旱的监测、预警和决策一直面临很大的挑战。针对骤旱的复杂时空特性,以中国农业区域为例,重点分析了降雨骤旱、高温骤旱和复合骤旱等3类骤旱在1983—2015年的时空分布特征,揭示了各类骤旱事件的发生次数、发生历时、空间分布、时间分布和演变趋势。研究结果表明:我国农业区域的骤旱次数呈现逐年增加的趋势,尤其是高温引发的骤旱呈现急剧增长趋势,而年际的历时变化有增有减,但幅度均不大;我国东北农业地区是骤旱的重灾区,发生频率高,高温骤旱的历时也较长;骤旱主要集中在春季和夏季,分别以高温骤旱和降雨骤旱为主。研究有助于建立新型骤旱监测方法与系统,并为局部地区提供骤旱防御信息支撑。

关键词: 干旱, 骤旱, 农业区域, 时空分布, 标准化降雨指数

At present, flash drought occurs globally and regionally and causes a lot of socio-economic loss in a very short time. Therefore, flash drought has been regarded as one of the hottest issues in drought research. However, flash drought monitoring, prediction and decision-making have encountered a lot of challenges due to its multiple driven factors and complex spatio-temporal process. Aiming at this problem, this paper focused on the agricultural land in China, and analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of three kinds of flash droughts (i.e., precipitation-deficit, high-temperature, and composite flash droughts) from 1983 to 2015. We studied the occurrences, duration, spatial distribution, temporal distribution, and trend of all three kinds of flash droughts. Our results demonstrated that, the occurrences of flash drought agricultural land in China increased year by year, among which high-temperature flash drought increased dramatically; duration of flash droughts had different trends, but the variations were relatively smooth; Northeast China was identified as a vulnerable area of flash drought, indicating more flash drought events and longer duration; flash droughts in China were found to concentrate in spring (high-temperature drought) and summer seasons (precipitation-deficit drought). This study is helpful for building new flash drought monitoring method and system, and it is also valuable for flash drought preparedness on regional scale.

Key words: Drought, Flash drought, Agricultural land, Spatio-temporal distribution, SPI

中图分类号: 

图1 中国农业区域研究示意图
Fig.1 Study area of China agricultural land
表1 骤旱判别规则对比
Table 1 Comparison of current flash drought judgements with this study
骤旱分类和判别规则 参考文献
高温骤旱:5日尺度内,最高气温距平大于1倍标准差,蒸散发距平大于0,土壤相对含水率小于40%分位数 [12,14,15]
骤旱:在最多8周内发生D3及更严重的干旱 [27]
骤旱:在最多20天内,0~40 cm处的土壤相对含水率从至少40%分位数降低到20%分位数及以下 [13]
降雨骤旱:5日尺度内,最高气温距平大于1倍标准差,蒸散发距平小于0,降雨小于40%分位数 [15]
降雨骤旱:在半月以内,SPI<-1,SETI>-1,SSI<-1;高温骤旱:在半月以内,SPI>-1,SETI<-1,SSI<-1
复合骤旱:在半月以内,SPI<-1,SETI<-1,SSI<-1		 本文
图2 3类骤旱年际发生次数变化
Fig.2 Annual occurrences of three kinds of flash droughts
图3 3类骤旱年际发生次数变化趋势
Fig.3 Trend of annual occurrences of three kinds of flash droughts
图4 3类骤旱年际历时变化
Fig.4 Annual duration of three kinds of flash droughts
图5 3类骤旱发生次数的空间分布
Fig.5 Total occurrences of three kinds of flash droughts in terms of spatial distribution
图6 3类骤旱发生历时的空间分布
Fig.6 Average duration of three kinds of flash droughts in terms of spatial distribution
图7 3类骤旱面积半月频次分布
Fig.7 Occurrences of three kinds of flash droughts in every half month
表2 本研究与现有其他研究对比
Table 2 Comparison between this study and other similar studies
研究区域 研究时段 骤旱种类 数据源 主要结论 参考文献
美国大陆 1916—2013年 高温骤旱 地面站点、遥感同化 高温骤旱的次数和面积都在减少;骤旱在中西部和太平洋西北部发生次数较多 [12]
中国 1979—2010年 降雨骤旱、高温
骤旱		 地面站点 骤旱更多发生在湿润和半湿润地区;由于长期升温,骤旱增加了109% [14]
美国东部 1979—2010年 未划分 地面站点 骤旱发生概率为0.1%~1.5%;东南部有更高的发生次数 [13]
中国赣江
流域		 1961—2013年 降雨骤旱、高温
骤旱		 地面站点、遥感同化 流域北部主要发生高温骤旱,而中部和南部主要是降雨骤旱;1997—2013年骤旱频率升高 [15]
中国农业
地区		 1983—2015年 降雨骤旱、高温
骤旱、复合骤旱		 星地融合数据、遥感同化 骤旱次数呈现逐年增加的趋势,而年际的历时变化有增有减,但幅度均不大;我国东北农业地区是骤旱的重灾区;骤旱主要集中在春季和夏季,分别以高温骤旱和降雨骤旱为主 本文
表3 3类骤旱时空分布特征分析与对比
Table 3 Comparison of three kinds of flash droughts based on their different spatio-temporal features
骤旱类型 年际次数变化 年际历时变化 次数空间格局 历时空间格局 面积时间分布
降雨骤旱 近几年达到2 000次左右;以1.61%的年增长率缓慢增加 均值为1.17个半月;以0.46%的速率缓慢缩短 东北、西北、华中和华东部分区域分布较多;大多为14~25次 空间变异不明显;主要历时为0.5~1.5个半月 60%的骤旱集中在5月下半月至10月下半月
高温骤旱 近几年达到1 500次左右;以13.11%的年增长率急剧增加 均值为1.16个半月;以1.02%的速率增加 在东北、西南和华中区域分布较多;大多为1~19次 北长南短;东北和华北部分区域,平均历时长达1.4~5个半月 52%的骤旱集中在1月下半月至5月上半月
复合骤旱 近几年达到500次左右;以15.49%的年增长率急剧增加 均值为1.04个半月;以0.11%的速率缓慢增加 北方较少、南方较多;大多为1~13次 西南地区较长,平均历时为1.5~2.0个半月 49%的骤旱集中在7月上半月至9月上半月
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