农作物主要病虫害对甘肃气候暖干化的响应及应对技术的研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.11.1281

地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.11.1281

邓振镛 ¹，张强 ²，王润元 ¹，赵鸿 ¹，徐金芳 ³，刘明春 ⁴，赵红岩 ⁵，姚玉璧 ⁶

1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省(中国气象局)干旱气候变化与减灾重点(开放)实验室，]甘肃兰州〓730020；2.甘肃省气象局，甘肃兰州 730020；3. 甘肃省气象信息中心，甘肃兰州 730020；4.武威市气象局，甘肃武威 733000；5.西北区域气候中心，甘肃兰州 730020；6.定西市气象局，甘肃定西 743000

收稿日期:2012-05-09 修回日期:2012-08-13 出版日期:2012-11-10
基金资助:
中国气象局气候变化专项“气候变化对西北半干旱区马铃薯特色产业的影响评估及适应对策”（编号：CCSF201207）；国家科技部公益行业科研专项“农田水分利用效率对气候变化的响应与适应技术”（编号：GYHY201106029）；国家自然科学基金重点项目“黄土高原陆面过程观测试验研究”（编号：40830957）资助.

The Response of Plant Diseases and Pests to Climatic Warmer-drying and Its Adaptive Technique in the Northwest China

Deng Zhenyong ¹, Zhang Qiang ², Wang Runyuan ¹, Zhao Hong ¹, Xu Jinfang ³, Liu Mingchun ⁴, Zhao Hongyan ⁵, Yao Yubi ⁶

1.Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, Key Open Laboratory of Arid climate Change and Reducing Disaster, China Meteorological Administration; Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, China;
2. Meteorological Bureau Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730020, China;
3. Gansu Meteorological Information Center, Lanzhou 730020, China；
4. Meteorological Bureau of Wuwei Municipality, Wuwei 733000, China;
5. The Northwest Regional Climate Centre, Lanzhou 730020, China;
6. Meteorological Bureau of Dingxi Municipality, Dingxi 743000, China

Received:2012-05-09 Revised:2012-08-13 Online:2012-11-10 Published:2012-11-10

下载PDF ( 1323 )

通过选取甘肃省80个气象站点1961—2010年的气象要素值计算和分析，结果表明，暖干化是甘肃现代气候变化的基本特征。甘肃年平均气温气候倾向率均为正值，年平均气温每10年增温0.29 ℃；年降水量自1961年以来呈持续下降趋势，降水距平百分率以每10年1.7%的速率递减。揭示了气候变化对马铃薯晩疫病、麦蚜虫、小麦条锈病、玉米棉铃虫、红蜘蛛等5种主要农作物病虫害的影响。总结气候暖干化对主要农作物病虫害的主要危害特征：病虫种类增多、地域范围扩大；越冬界线北移、时间提早发生、受害程度加重；害虫生长季节延长、繁殖代数增加、种群增长加快；病毒病增多，易发大流行；寄主、害虫、天敌种群的生态系统发生了变化，使害虫得到迅速繁殖。提出完善农作物病虫害监测评估预警体系建设，提高精准优质预报服务；建立防治农作物病虫害管理生产新模式和配套技术适应气候变化；根据未来气候预测和针对不同气候类型以及不同气候年型调整作物种植结构和比例；制定精细化农作物病虫害综合农业自然资源区划，确定精准的高危病区范围重点防治等4个方面的措施和技术应对气候暖干化。

关键词: 甘肃, 农作物, 病虫害, 气候暖干化, 响应, 应对技术

By analyzing meteorological elements of 80 meteorological stations in Gansu province from 1961 to 2010, we concluded that the warmer and drying in the northwest region was the basic features of modern climate changing. The results showed that the annual average temperature raised 0.29 ℃ per decade and temperature increased 1.4 ℃ during nearly half a century. The warmer years were in the period of from 1997 to 2008 within 48 years. Annual precipitation had been declining since 1961, and the turning point was in 1986, the average annual precipitation reduced by 20 to 40 mm during 1987 to 2008 than that in 1961 to 1986. We analyzed the relationship between the development of wheat stripe rust, potato epidemic, aphid, cotton bollworm and red mite and meteorological factors. We explored the impact of climate warmdrying on the safety of HIV strains overwinter and oversummer, breed generations, disease time, harmful region, area and degree. The five main harmful characteristics had been exposed. First, the kinds of pests increased and harmful range amplified. Second, the boundary line of overwinter moved northward and harmful degree increased. Third, the period of pest growth extended, the breed generations increased and pest population growth accelerated. Fourth, the viral disease increased and pandemic occurred easily. Last, the ecology system of host, parasite and natural enemy population changed and the pest produced rapidly. We also provided four countermeasures to adapt to climate warmerdrying. We should firstly build the assessment and early warning system for crop pest monitoring and firstrate service. Next, the new control model of plant diseases and pests should be set up to adapt to climate change. Then, we should adjust the plant structure by weather forecast and different climate model year. Lastly, we should make fining crop pests comprehensive and agricultural natural resources division and confirm the region of high plant disease risk and the spot of key prevention and control.

Key words: Gansu province, Crop, Plant diseases and pests, Climatic warmer-drying, Impact, Adapt technology

中图分类号:

S433

[1]Chen Bangzhu, Qin Dahe. Climatic Change and Ecological Environment Seminar Anthology[C].Beijing: Meteorological Press, 2004:13-20,72-77.[陈邦柱,秦大河.气候变化与生态环境研讨会文集[C].北京：气象出版社,2004:13-20,72-77.]

[2]Deng Zhenyong, Zhang Qiang, Xu Jinfang, et al. Comparative studies of the harm characteristic of hot-dry wind and high temperature heat waves[J].Advances in Earth Science, 2009, 24(8):865-873.[邓振镛, 张强, 徐金芳, 等. 高温热浪与干热风的危害特征比较研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(8):865-873.]

[3]Wang Futang,Zhao Zongci,Wang Shili,et al.Effects of Climatic Change on Agricultural Ecology[M]. Beijing: Meteorological Press,2003:96-126.[王馥棠,赵宗慈,王石立,等.气候变化对农业生态的影响[M].北京:气象出版社,2003:96-126.]

[4]Deng Zhenyong, Wang Qiang，Zhang Qiang. Impact of climate warming and drying on food crops in northern China and the countermeasures[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2010，30（22）:6 278-6 288.[邓振镛, 王强，张强.中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施[J].生态学报，2010，30（22）:6 278-6 288.]

[5]Deng Zhenyong, Zhang Qiang, Pu Jinyong,et al. The impact of climate warming on crop planting and production in northwestern China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2008,28（8）:3 760-3 768.[邓振镛,张强,蒲金涌,等.气候变暖对中国西北地区农作物种植的影响[J].生态学报,2008,28（8）:3 760-3 768.]

[6]Zhang Qiang, Deng Zhenyong, Zhao Yingdong, et al. The influence of globe climate changing to agriculture over northwest China[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2008,28 （3）:1 210-1 218.[张强,邓振镛,赵映东,等.全球气候变化对我国西北地区农业的影响[J].生态学报,2008,28 （3）:1 210-1 218.]

[7]Deng Zhengyong,Wang Heling, Li Guochang,et al.A studying in influence of climate warming to cotton and its countermeasure in Hexi Corridor[J].Advances in Earth Science,2008,23(2):160-166.[邓振镛, 王鹤龄,李国昌,等. 气候变暖对河西走廊棉花生产影响的成因与对策研究[J]. 地球科学进展,2008,23（2）:160-166.]

[8]Deng Zhenyong, Zhang Qiang, Xu Jinfang, et al. Progresses of study on impact of global climate warming on crops in Gansu Province[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2008,23(10):1 070-1 078.[邓振镛,张强,徐金芳,等.全球气候变暖对甘肃农作物生长影响的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展,2008,23(10):1 070-1 078.]

[9]Ye Cailing, Huo Zhiguo, Ding Shengli, et al. Advance in study on formation of meteorological environment causing crop’s diseases and insect pests[J]. Journal of Natural Disaster,2005,14(1):90-96.[叶彩玲，霍治国，丁胜利,等.农作物病虫害气象环境成因研究进展[J].自然灾害学报，2005，14（1）：90-96.]

[10]Ma Zhanhong, Shi Shouding, Jiang Yuying, et al. Climate based regional classification for oversummering of Puccinia striiformis in China with GIS[J].Acta Phytopathologica Sinica, 2004, 34(5):455-462.[马占鸿，石守定，姜玉英,等.基于GIS的中国小麦条锈病菌越夏区气候区划[J]. 植物病理学报，2004，34(5)：455-462.]

[11]Zhang Runjie, He Xinfeng. Potential effects of climate change on agricultural insect pests[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology, 1997,16(6):36-40.[张润杰,何新凤. 气候变化对农业害虫的潜在影响[J]. 生态学杂志, 1997, 16(6): 36-40.]

[12]Chi Zaixiang, Lu Yao, Xiao Jun, et al. Effect of meteorological factors on occurrence regulation of potato late blight[J].Guizhou Agriculture Science,2009,37(9):69-71.[池再香，卢瑶，肖钧,等.气象因子对马铃薯晚疫病发生规律的影响[J].贵州农业科学，2009，37(9)：69-71.]

[13]Ding Junjie, Zheng Tianqi, Ma Shumei.Summary of the research in potato pate blight occurrence factors[J]. Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2005,21(2): 253-255.[丁俊杰，郑天琪，马淑梅.马铃薯晚疫病发生因素研究[J].中国农学通报，2005，21（2）：253-255.]

[14]Ye Cailing, Huo Zhiguo.The influence of climate changing on development of main crop disease and insects pest[J]. China Agricultural Information, 2001,(4):9-10.[叶彩玲,霍治国.气候变暖对我国主要农作物病虫害发生趋势影响[J].中国农业信息快讯，2001,(4):9-10.]

[15]Yao Yubi. The relationship between the development of potato late blight and the meteorological condition in the Loess Plateau：A case study on Dingxi of Gansu province[J].Plant Protection，2008，34(4):90-92.[姚玉璧.黄土高原马铃薯晚疫病发生发展与气象条件关系的研究——以甘肃定西市为例[J].植物保护，2008，34(4):90-92.]

[16]Yao Yubi. Climatic changes and its influence on the development of Potato late blight[J].Joumal of Arid Land Resources and Environment，2010，24（1）：173-178.[姚玉璧.气候变化对马铃薯晚疫病发生发展的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境，2010，24（1）：173-178.]

[17]Yao Yubi, Deng Zhenyong, Wang Runyuan,et al. The influence of climate changes on potato growth in Gansu province[J].Agricultural Research in Arid Areas, 2006,24（3）:16-20.[姚玉璧，邓振镛，王润元，等.气候暖干化对甘肃马铃薯生产的影响研究[J].干旱地区农业研究，2006，24（3）:16-20.]

[18]Chen Suhua, Pan Jinjun, Wang Zhichun.The influence of climate changing on development and epidemic of potato late blight in Inner Mongolia[J]. Agricultural Research in Arid Areas, 2006, 24(6):48-51.[陈素华，潘进军，王志春.气候变化对内蒙古马铃薯晚疫病流行的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究，2006，24（6）：48-51.]

[19]Zhao Hong, Sun Guowu, Wang Runyuan.An analysis of the relation between occurrence of wheat aphid and climatical dynamics in Hedong over 20 years[J]. Advances in Earth Science, 2005, 20(Suppl.):95-99.[赵鸿,孙国武,王润元.20年来甘肃省河东地区小麦蚜虫的发生规律与气候波动的关系探析[J]. 地球科学进展,2005, 20（特刊）:95-99.]

[20]Liu Mingchun, Jiang Jufang, Shi Zhijuan, et al.Meteorological impact factors and forecast of wheat aphid population dynamic changes[J].Journal of Agrometeorology, 2009，30（3）：440-444.[刘明春，蒋菊芳，史志娟,等.小麦蚜虫种群消长气象影响成因及预测[J].中国农业气象，2009，30（3）：440-444.]

[21]Xiao Zhiqiang, Chen Jun, Fan Ming, et al. Epidemic meteorologic conditions and degree prediction model of wheat aphids in Longnan Mountainous Area[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2009,(33):16 419-16 422.[肖志强,陈俊,樊明,等.陇南山区小麦蚜虫发生气象条件及程度预测模型[J].安徽农业科学，2009,(33):16 419-16 422.]

[22]Li Zongming, Xiao Zhiqiang, Ma Yun, et al. The impact of the abundance of aer Summer inocula in Longnan area on the epidermic of wheat strip rest disease

[J]. Plant Protection Technology and Extension, 2001, 21(9): 21-22.[李宗明，肖志强，马云,等.陇南小麦条锈病越夏菌量对流行的影响研究初报[J]. 植保技术与推广，2001，21(9)：21-22.]

[23]Yan Jinrui, Ma Lin. The agricultural meteorological conditions for the occurrence and development of spring wheat yellow stripe rust in Qinghai[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 1997, 18(6): 44-48.[严进瑞，马林.青海省春小麦条锈病害发生发展的农业气象条件[J].中国农业气象，1997，18（6）：44-48.]

[24]Xiao Zhiqiang, Li Zongming, Fan Ming, et al. Prediction model on seripe rust influence extent of winter wheat in Longnan Mounain Area[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2007,28(3):350-353.[肖志强，李宗明，樊明,等. 陇南山区小麦条锈病流行程度预测模型[J].中国农业气象，2007，28（3）:350-353.]

[25]Liu Mingchun. Influence of climate warming on main diseases and pests’ occurrence trend in Wuwei City[J]. Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences, 2009，(20)：9 522-9 525.[刘明春.气候变暖对甘肃省武威市主要病虫害发生趋势的影响[J].安徽农业科学，2009，(20)：9 522-9 525.]

[26]Zhang Zhi, Lin Li, Liang Pei. Climate change and its impacts on agricultural production in Ningxia[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2008, 29(4): 402-405.[张智，林莉，梁培.宁夏气候变化及其对农业生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2008，29(4)：402-405.]

[27]Guo Xiaoqin, Liu Mingchun, Wei Yuguo.Forecast model of helicoverpa armigera based on principal component analysis[J].Acta Agriculturae Boreali-occidentalis Sinica，2010,19（8）：69-73.[郭小芹，刘明春，魏育国.基于主成分分析的玉米棉铃虫预测模型研究[J].西北农业学报，2010,19（8）：69-73.]

[28]Jiang Jufang. Meteorological conditions analysis and prediction for occurrence of corn fields’ bollworm in Shiyang River Basin[J].Agricultural Research in Arid Areas, 2009年，27(3)：221-225.[蒋菊芳.石羊河流域玉米田棉铃虫发生气象条件分析预测[J].干旱地区农业研究，2009，27(3)：221-225.]

[29]Zhang Jianhua,Li Yingchun. Three climatic stages of cotton bollworm living through einter in Xinjiang[J].Journal of Agrometeorology,2001,22(1):43-46.[张建华，李迎春.新疆棉铃虫越冬的三个气候阶段[J].中国农业气象，2001，22（1）：43-46.]

[30]Xiao Zhiqiang, Li Zongming, Fan Ming,et al. The meteorological condition and prediction model of wheat red mites appearing in Longnan Mountainous Area[J]. Arid Meteorology, 2007,25(3):72-75.[肖志强,李宗明,樊明,等.陇南山区小麦红蜘蛛发生气象条件及预测模型[J].干旱气象，2007，25（3）:72-75.]

[31]Zhang Junxiang, Yan Junping. The analysis on the relation of crop diseases and insect pests with climate change in Shaanxi province[J].Journal of Catastrophology, 2001，16（2）：27-30.[张俊香,延军平.陕西省农作物病虫害与气候变化的关系分析[J]. 灾害学, 2001, 16（2）: 27-30.]

[32]Gan Guofu, Peng Zhiyun. Comprehensive Treatment of Crop Disease and Pest and Harmful Weeds in Wuwei[M]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University Press,2003:307-314.[甘国福,彭志云.武威市农作物病虫草害综合治理研究[M].兰州：兰州大学出版社，2003:307-314.]

[33]Xu Ying.The research development of new scientific facts of global climate change[N]. China Meteorological News,2007-02-08（3）.[徐影.全球气候变化的最新科学事实和研究进展[N].中国气象报,2007-02-08(3).]

[34]Lei Chongyi. The development of group structure of potato later blight in China[J]. Chinese Potato Journal, 2007, 21(6):360-362.[雷崇艺. 我国马铃薯晚疫病群体结构研究进展[J].中国马铃薯，2007, 21(6):360-362.]

[35]Zhao Hong, Sun Guowu. Potential impacts of CEP on agriculture disease，insects，weeds and rats[J].Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2004，21（1）:28-32.[赵鸿，孙国武.环境蠕变对农业病虫草鼠害的潜在影响[J]. 干旱气象，2004，21（1）:28-32.]

[1]	顾菊, 张勇, 刘时银, 王欣. 青藏高原冰川底部滑动估算方法研究：进展、问题与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(3): 307-316.
[2]	王飞, 陶宇, 欧维新. 景观格局变化的水质净化服务响应关系研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(1): 17-28.
[3]	龙上敏,刘秦玉,郑小童,程旭华,白学志,高臻. 南大洋海温长期变化研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(9): 962-977.
[4]	陈科贵, 李进, 黄长兵, 陈愿愿, 王刚, 刘阳. BP神经网络在富钾卤水中的应用研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(6): 614-622.
[5]	田壮才, 郭秀军, 余乐, 贾永刚, 张少同, 乔路正. 内孤立波悬浮海底沉积物研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(2): 166-178.
[6]	陈科贵, 吴刘磊, 陈愿愿, 王刚. 基于支持向量机的川中杂卤石分类识别研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(10): 1041-1046.
[7]	李育, 朱耿睿. 三大自然区过渡地带近50年来气候类型变化及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(7): 791-801.
[8]	魏柱灯, 方修琦, 苏筠, 萧凌波. 过去2 000年气候变化对中国经济与社会发展影响研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(3): 336-343.
[9]	芮晓庆, 刘传联, 李志明. 颗石藻室内培养及应用研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(11): 1303-1313.
[10]	肖子牛, 钟琦, 尹志强, 周立旻, 宋燕, 韩延本, 黄聪, 潘静, 赵亮. 太阳活动年代际变化对现代气候影响的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(12): 1335-1348.
[11]	周洪建，孙业红. 气候变化背景下灾害移民的政策响应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(5): 573-580.
[12]	吴帅男，陈仕涛，段福才. 北半球72 ka BP气候突变事件及其与Toba火山的关系[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(1): 35-41.
[13]	许彦平，姚晓红，乔艳君. 甘肃小陇山林区甘肃鼢鼠危害面积的气象预测预报技术研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(8): 881-886.
[14]	王国庆，金君良，王金星，贺瑞敏，刘翠善，刘艳丽. 辽河流域径流对气候变化的响应特征研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(4): 433-440.
[15]	郭毅,赵景波. 1368—1948年陇中地区干旱灾害时间序列分形特征研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2010, 25(6): 630-637.

阅读次数

全文

摘要