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地球科学进展  2013, Vol. 28 Issue (12): 1335-1348    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.12.1335
全球变化研究     
太阳活动年代际变化对现代气候影响的研究进展
肖子牛1, 钟琦1, 尹志强2, 周立旻3, 宋燕1, 韩延本2, 黄聪4, 潘静5, 赵亮4
1.中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081; 2.中国科学院国家天文台,北京 100012; 3.华东师范大学,上海 200062; 4.国家卫星气象中心,北京 100081; 5.中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100029
Advances in the Research of Impact of Decadal Solar Cycle on Modern Climate
Xiao Ziniu1, Zhong Qi1, Yin Zhiqiang2, Zhou Limin3, Song Yan1, Han Yanben2, Huang Cong4, Pan Jing5, Zhao Liang6
1. China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081,China; 2. National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100012,China; 3. East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China; 4. National Satellite Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081,China; 5. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China
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摘要:

太阳活动对现代气候变化尤其在年代际尺度的影响和贡献是亟待认识的科学问题之一。回顾了近年在年代际尺度上太阳活动影响地球气候的新观测证据,侧重阐述了太阳总辐射、紫外辐射和宇宙射线影响气候的途径和气候系统响应机制的细节,以及对其评估验证的新进展。此外,还指出对观测资料不确定性的评估、气候系统对太阳活动效应的放大机制的数值检验以及对未来可能的太阳活动极端事件的影响预估是目前研究中面临的挑战。最后,展望了该领域可能取得突破的关键点,为未来的科学研究提供参考。

关键词: 太阳总辐射紫外线辐射气候系统和气候变化影响和响应机制宇宙射线    
Abstract:

Role of solar activity on modern climate change, particularly in the decadalscale is an important scientific issue. This paper reviews the recent observation of decadal solar signal in earth’s climate, with focus on the mechanism of solar radiation, ultraviolet radiation and cosmic rays on climate system ,and its validation. The paper points out that the assessment of uncertainty in observations, amplification process of the climate system, as well as possible future impact of solar extreme events are challenges in the present study. Finally, the keys of breakthrough are pointed, to provide a reference for future research.

Key words: Total solar irradiance    Galactic cosmic ray    Ultroviolet forcing    Climate system and climate change    Mechanism and evaluation.
收稿日期: 2013-06-14 出版日期: 2013-12-10
:  P466  
基金资助:

国家重大科学研究计划项目“天文与地球运动因子对气候变化的影响研究”(编号:2012CB957800); 国家自然科学基金面上项目“索马里急流的变化特征及其对亚洲季风和气候的影响”(编号:41175051)资助.

作者简介: 肖子牛(1965-),男,云南昆明人,研究员,主要从事气候和气候变化、数值模拟、天气气候预测研究.E-mail:xiaozn@cma.gov.cn
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引用本文:

肖子牛, 钟琦, 尹志强, 周立旻, 宋燕, 韩延本, 黄聪, 潘静, 赵亮. 太阳活动年代际变化对现代气候影响的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(12): 1335-1348.

Xiao Ziniu, Zhong Qi, Yin Zhiqiang, Zhou Limin, Song Yan, Han Yanben, Huang Cong, Pan Jing, Zhao Liang. Advances in the Research of Impact of Decadal Solar Cycle on Modern Climate. Advances in Earth Science, 2013, 28(12): 1335-1348.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.12.1335        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2013/V28/I12/1335

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