Drought disaster, Seasonal drought disaster,Fractal dimension,Dissipative system,Gansu,"/> 1368—1948年陇中地区干旱灾害时间序列分形特征研究
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地球科学进展  2010, Vol. 25 Issue (6): 630-637    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2010.06.0630
研究论文     
1368—1948年陇中地区干旱灾害时间序列分形特征研究
郭毅1, 赵景波1,2*
1.陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西 西安 710062;
2.中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室,陕西 西安 710075
Characteristics of Fractal Dimension of Drought Disaster Sequences from 1368 to 1948 in Longzhong Area
Guo Yi1, Zhao Jingbo1,2
1.College of Tourism and Environment, Shanxi Normal University, Xi′an 710062,China;
2.State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, CAS, Xi′an 710075, China  
 全文: PDF(1398 KB)  
摘要:

采用标度变换法对陇中地区1368—1948年(明代至新中国建立前)各等级干旱灾害及旱季序列的时间分维值进行测算。并深入讨论了各旱灾序列时间分维与其线性特征之间的关系,以及分维随时间演进的变化趋势。对4个干旱等级、4个旱季序列的分维值进行研究,发现:①干旱灾害具有客观的分形结构,其时间序列是具有自组织性质的,干旱灾害是自组织系统;②各等级干旱灾害有自己的时间重演律,干旱灾害越轻,无标度区越宽,分维值越高,短周期更明显;③各旱季分维值与其发生频次成正比;④整个时期的动态总体上表现为:各旱灾序列(旱灾、大旱灾、中度干旱、春旱及伏旱)分维值逐渐增大,旱灾发生趋向混沌无序,旱灾系统趋向平衡态,稳定性减小;⑤分形分析法与常规统计方法之间有着内在联系。

关键词: 干旱灾害旱季分形耗散系统甘肃    
Abstract:

Based on the fractal viewpoint, the characteristics of different ranks and seasonal drought disasters sequences which is from 1368 to 1948  in middle  Gansu province are studied by using box counting algorithm. Then discuss the relation between temporal fractal dimensions and linear features indepth. Finally, the dynamic variation of the temporal fractal dimension is  analyzed. It is found that: ①Drought disaster is an objective fractal structure, the time series have self-organizing nature, drought disaster is self-organizing system;②The drought disaster lighter, the time fractal dimension bigger, the scaling range broader and the  time span oscillations shorter. ③The seasonal drought disaster′ temporal fractal dimension increases with the increasing of it is frequency; ④Mainly temporal fractal dimension of these sequences increases during the 581 years, and drought disasters tend to turbulence, the drought disaster system tends to balance and the stability drops. ⑤There is internal relationship between fractal analysis and conventional statistical methods.

Key words: Drought disaster')" href="#">

Drought disaster    Seasonal drought disaster    Fractal dimension    Dissipative system    Gansu

收稿日期: 2010-02-02 出版日期: 2010-06-10
:  S423  
基金资助:

教育部人文社会科学研究基地重大招标项目“西北地区典型水环境及用水制度研究”(编号:05JJD770014);中国科学院地球环境研究所黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室项目“黄土高原300年来洪水环境变化研究”(编号:SKLLQG0909)资助.

通讯作者: 赵景波(1953-),男,山东滕州人,教授,主要从事自然地理与环境研究.     E-mail: zhaojb@snnu.edu.cn
作者简介: 郭毅(1982-),女,陕西西安人,硕士研究生,主要从事环境评价与防治研究. E-mail:mulberry@stu.snnu.edu.cn
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引用本文:

郭毅,赵景波. 1368—1948年陇中地区干旱灾害时间序列分形特征研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2010, 25(6): 630-637.

Guo Yi, Zhao Jingbo. Characteristics of Fractal Dimension of Drought Disaster Sequences from 1368 to 1948 in Longzhong Area. Advances in Earth Science, 2010, 25(6): 630-637.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2010.06.0630        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2010/V25/I6/630

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