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地球科学进展  2011, Vol. 26 Issue (7): 763-778    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.07.0763
全球变化研究     
干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战
张强1,2,张良2,崔显成3,曾剑2
1.甘肃省气象局,甘肃兰州730020;2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020;3.吉林省气象科技服务中心,吉林长春130062
Progresses and Challenges in Drought Assessment and Monitoring
Zhang Qiang1,2, Zhang Liang2,Cui Xiancheng3, Zeng Jian2
1. Gansu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020, China;2.Institute of Arid Meteorology,CMA;Key laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province; Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou730020, China;3. Center of Jilin Provincial Meteorological Scientific and Technological Service, Changchun130062, China
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摘要:

由于气候变暖及人类活动加剧,干旱灾害对全球粮食、水资源和生态安全及人类可持续发展的威胁日益突出,对干旱决策服务和应急管理能力提出了严峻挑战,干旱监测预警、影响评估及应急管理等方面的技术水平亟待进一步提高。在系统总结以往研究成果基础上,阐述了对干旱气候、干旱和干旱灾害的科学认识,归纳了干旱气候、干旱和干旱灾害的成因及其主要特征,系统分析了国际上干旱监测预警技术的发展历程及各种干旱指数的主要特征和相互关系。从科学发展趋势和更好满足社会服务需求角度,思考了干旱技术发展面临的主要科学挑战及未来科学发展途径。

关键词: 干旱灾害监测预警干旱指数水分循环干旱观测系统    
Abstract:

Due to the climate warming and enhancement of human impacts, the menaces of drought disaster in safety of food supplies, water resources and ecology become more remarkable, and the great challenges of ability for impact evaluation, disaster mitigation and emergency management are brought forward. Thus, the technological level of drought monitoring, warning, evaluation, mitigation and management need to be improved. In this paper, based on the summary of the advances in drought research, our understandings on arid climate, drought and drought disaster are put forward, the key characteristics of rid climate, drought and drought disaster are generalized, and the courses to develop drought indices, the main properties of different sorts of drought indices and their mutual relationships are analyzed. Finally, according to the future situation of science and technology development and the service demand of society, the scientific challenges and the ways to develop the technology on drought are preliminarily discussed.

Key words: Drought    Monitoring and warning    Emergency management of drought    Water cycle    Arid observation system
收稿日期: 2011-01-26 出版日期: 2011-07-10
:  P426.616  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金重点项目“黄土高原陆面过程观测与试验研究”(编号: 40830957);国家公益性行业科研专项“西北地区旱作农业对气候变暖的响应特征及其预警和应对技术研究”(编号:GYHY200806021)资助.

通讯作者: 张强     E-mail: zhangqiang@cma.gov.cn
作者简介: 张强(1965-),男,甘肃靖远人,研究员,主要从事大气边界层、陆面过程、干旱气候与环境研究.E-mail:zhangqiang@cma.gov.cn
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张强,张良,崔显成,曾剑. 干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(7): 763-778.

Zhang Qiang, Zhang Liang,Cui Xiancheng, Zeng Jian. Progresses and Challenges in Drought Assessment and Monitoring. Advances in Earth Science, 2011, 26(7): 763-778.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.07.0763        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2011/V26/I7/763

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