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地球科学进展  2012, Vol. 27 Issue (9): 957-968    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.09.0957
研究论文     
GEV干旱指数及其在气象干旱预测和监测中的应用和检验

王澄海1,王芝兰2,郭毅鹏1

1.兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃 兰州 730000;2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃 兰州 730020
Application and Verification of Drought Index in Meteorology Drought Monitoring and Prediction
Wang Chenghai1, Wang Zhilan2, Guo Yipeng1
1.College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Key Laboratory of Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster  of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, Chnia;
2.Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, Chnia
 全文: PDF(2642 KB)  
摘要:

介绍了一种新的基于广义极值分布(Generalized Extreme Value,GEV)的干旱指数的构建过程及其原理。并利用1951—2010年中国地区160个气象台站的逐月降水资料,选择6个代表台站,检验1951—2010年60年间预测的干旱和实际干旱事件发生的吻合程度;利用2009—2010年资料检验GEV指数和实际发生的干旱事件在月尺度上的监测效果。结果表明,利用GEV方法定义的干旱指数能较好地监测干旱事件的发生和发展,与目前广泛使用的Ci指数监测结果较为一致。同时这种指数也能用于某一地区干旱事件的预测和干旱等级的划分。对干旱业务监测和预测有重要的参考意义。但该指数对站点疏密有一定的依赖性,站点稀疏的区域存在着一些误差。

关键词: GEV分布干旱指数干旱监测    
Abstract:

A new drought index, which is based on generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, was proposed. The GEV index’s theory and method was introduced. By using the monthly precipitation data of 160 sites during 19512010, the drought events calculated and observed are compared and validated. By predicting the drought events occurred during 20092010, the prediction performances of the GEV drought index is validated on monthly scale. The results show that the GEV method has well performances for drought monitoring and prediction, which also has good agreement with CI index, which is widely used for drought monitoring practices. Meanwhile, this drought index can be used for the predication of drought climatology and categorizing of the drought severity. The results also show that the index has good performances in observation sites density regions, but it has some errors in sitesparse regions.

Key words: GEV distribution    Drought Index    Drought Monitoring
收稿日期: 2011-12-19 出版日期: 2012-09-10
:  P49  
基金资助:

国家公益专项项目“多时空尺度干旱监测与预警、评估技术研究”(编号:GYHY201006023);国家自然科学基金项目“全球变暖背景下青藏高原地区不同尺度循环机理及变化研究”(编号:41071028);兰州干旱气象研究所启动基金项目(编号:KYS2011BSKY04)资助.

通讯作者: 王澄海(1961-),男,甘肃秦安人,教授,主要从事气候模拟和气候变化研究.E-mail:wch@lzu.edu.cn   
作者简介: 王澄海(1961-),男,甘肃秦安人,教授,主要从事气候模拟和气候变化研究.E-mail:wch@lzu.edu.cn
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引用本文:

王澄海,王芝兰,郭毅鹏. GEV干旱指数及其在气象干旱预测和监测中的应用和检验[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(9): 957-968.

Wang Chenghai, Wang Zhilan, Guo Yipeng. Application and Verification of Drought Index in Meteorology Drought Monitoring and Prediction. Advances in Earth Science, 2012, 27(9): 957-968.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.09.0957        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2012/V27/I9/957

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[1] 张强,张良,崔显成,曾剑. 干旱监测与评价技术的发展及其科学挑战[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(7): 763-778.