地球科学进展 ›› 2001, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (1): 98 -105. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2001.01.0098

全球变化研究 上一篇    下一篇

20世纪全球变暖的冰冻圈证据
王宁练,姚檀栋   
  1. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所冰芯与寒区环境开放研究实验室,甘肃 兰州  730000
  • 收稿日期:2000-03-14 修回日期:2000-07-13 出版日期:2001-02-01
  • 通讯作者: 王宁练(1966-),男,陕西兴平人,研究员,主要从事冰芯气候环境记录、冰川变化与全球变化研究. E-mail:nlwang@ns.lzb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    中国科学院“九五”重大项目“西部冰川资源变化及其对社会经济发展的影响”(编号:KZ951-B1-212)和“冰冻圈动态变化基础研究(三期)”联合资助.

EVIDENCES FOR GLOBAL WARMING IN THE 20TH CENTURY FROM CRYOSPHERE

WANG Ning-lian,YAO Tan-dong   

  1. Laboratory of Ice Core and Cold Regions Environment,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,CAS,Lanzhou730000,China
  • Received:2000-03-14 Revised:2000-07-13 Online:2001-02-01 Published:2001-02-01

20世纪80年代以来,地面气象观测结果表明全球气温在明显升高,而探空资料和卫星遥感资料却表明低层大气在降温,这使得人们对于全球变暖问题提出了质疑。通过对近100多年来冰冻圈各组成要素 (冰川、积雪、冻土、海冰等 )变化的综合分析,并结合全球不同地区的冰芯记录,证明了20世纪全球气候是在变暖,指出开展冰冻圈(尤其是冰盖、积雪、冻土和海冰)与大气/海洋之间相互作用(影响和响应)过程研究的必要性和迫切性.

The apparent difference between the thermometer estimated surface warming and the air temperature decreasing in the lower troposphere estimated from satellites and radiosondes in recent years, makes the global warming being as an open question. By comprehensive analyses for the variations of the every component of the cryosphere, such as glacier, snow cover, permafrost and sea ice, etc., together with the records of ice cores from different areas, it was verified that climate was warming over the global surfaces, both in lower and high altitudes, in the 20th century. Moreover, it was pointed out that it is necessary to study the interaction process between the cryosphere and atmosphere/ocean for understanding the Earth climate system.

中图分类号: 

[1]  Singer S F. Climate change and consensus[J]. Science, 1996,271(5249): 581~582.
[2]  Philander S G. Is the Temperature Rising? [M]. Princeton:Princeton University Press, 1998.191~205.
[3]  Spencer R W, Christy J R. Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites[J]. Science, 1990, 247(4950):1 558~1 562.
[4]  Christy J R, McNider R T. Satellite greenhouse signal[J].Nature, 1994, 367(6461): 325.
[5]  Christy J R. Temperature above the surface layer[J]. Climatic Change, 1995, 31(2~4): 455~474.
[6]  Christy J R, Spencer R W, Lobel E S. Analysis of the merging procedure for the MSU daily temperature time series[J].Journal of Climate, 1998, 11(8): 2 016~2 041.
[7]  Hansen J, Wilson H, Sato M,et al. Satellite and surface temperature data at odds?[J]. Clmatic Change, 1995, 30(1): 103~117.
[8]  Hurrell J W, Trenberth K E. Spurious trends in satellite MSU temperature from merging different satellite records[J].Nature, 1997, 386: 164~167.
[9]  Hansen J E, Sato M, Ruedy R,et al. Global climate data and models: A reconciliation[J]. Science, 1998, 281: 930~932.
[10]  Bengtsson L, Roeckner E, Stendel M. Why is the global warming proceeding much slower than expected?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1999, 104(D4): 3 865~3 876.
[11]  Santer B D, Wigley T M L, Gaffen D J,et al. Interpreting differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere[J]. Science, 2000, 287(5456): 1 227~1 232.
[12]  Wentz F J, Schabel M. Effects of orbital decay on satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature trends[J]. Nature,1998, 394(6694): 661~664.
[13]  Kerr R A. Among global thermometers, warming still wins out[J]. Science, 1998, 281(5385): 1 948~1 949.
[14]  Gaffen D J, Santer B D, Boyle J S,et al. Multidecadal changes in the vertical temperature structure of the tropical troposphere[J]. Science, 2000, 287(5456): 1 242~1 245.
[15]  Parker D E. Temperature high and low[J]. Science, 2000,287(5456): 1 216~1 217.
[16]   Porter S C. Pattern and forcing of Northern Hemisphere glacier variations during the last millennium[J]. Quaternary Research, 1986, 26(1): 27~48.
[17]  Wang Ninglian, Zhang Xiangson. Mountain glacier fluctuations and climatic change during the last 100 years[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1992, 14(3): 242~250.[王宁练,张祥松.近百年来山地冰川波动与气候变化[J].冰川冻土, 1992, 14(3): 242~250.]
[18]  Wang Ninglian. Fluctuations of glaciers in the Northern Hemisphere in recent 30 years and their future trend [A].In: the Proceedings of the First Chinese Youth Meeting of the Study on the Cold Region Environment and engineering[C]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University Press, 1994. 16~21.[王宁练.北半球观测冰川近30年来的变化及未来趋势探讨[A].见:第一届全国寒区环境与工程青年学术会议论文集[C].兰州:兰州大学出版社, 1994.16~21.]
[19]  Ding Yongjian. Response of cryosphere to climatic warming since 1980 over the Northern Hemisphere [J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1996, 18(2): 131~137. [丁永建. 1980年以来冰冻圈对气候变暖响应的若干证据[J].冰川冻土, 1996, 18(2): 131~137.]
[20]  Su Zhen, Liu Zongxiang, Wang Wenti,et al. Glacier fluctuations responding to climate change and forecast of its tendency over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Advance in Earth Sciences, 1999, 14(6): 607~612. [苏珍,刘宗香,王文悌,等.青藏高原冰川对气候变化的响应及趋势预测[J].地球科学进展, 1999, 14(6): 607~612.]
[21]  Pu Jianchen, Yao Tandong, Zhang Yingsheng,et al. Variations of the glaciers in the source of Yangtze River[J]. Advance in Earth Sciences, 1998, 13(Suppl.): 58~64. [蒲健辰,姚檀栋,张寅生,等.长江河源区的冰川变化[J].地球科学进展, 1998, 13(增刊): 58~64.]
[22]  Casassa G, Espizua L E, Francou B,et al. Glaciers in South America[A]. In: Haeberli W, Hoelzle M, Suter S, eds, Into the Second Century of Worldwide Glacier Monitoring:Prospects and Strategies[C]. UNESCO, Paris, 1998. 125~141.
[23]  Brecher H H, Thompson L G. Measurement of the retreat of Qori Kalis in the tropical Andes of Peru by terrestrial photogrammetry [ J ]. Photogrammetric Engineering Remote Sensing, 1993, 59: 1 017~1 022.
[24]  Thompson L G. Ice core evidence for climate change in the Tropics: implication for our future[J]. Quaternary Science Reviews, 2000, 19(1-5): 19~35.
[25]  IAHS/UNESCO. Fluctuations of glaciers 1990-1995 [M].Zurich: World Glacier Monitoring Service, 1998.1~296.
[26]  Wang Ninglian, Liu Shiyin. Summer Temperature rise quantified from the change of the Glacier No.1 at the source of Urumqi River in the 20th century[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1997, 19(3): 207~213. [王宁练,刘时银.从天山1号冰川变化估计近百年来乌鲁木齐河源地区夏季升温[J].冰川冻土, 1997, 19(3): 207~213.]
[27]  Wang Ninglian, Yao Tandong, Tian Lide,et al. Climate sensitivity of Glacier No.1 at the source of Urumqi River in the Tianshan Moutains[J]. Arid Land Geography, 1998, 21(4): 34~40. [王宁练,姚檀栋,田立德,等.天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川的气候敏感性研究[J].干旱区地理, 1998,21(4): 34~40.]
[28]  Oerlemans J. Quantifying global warming from the retreat of glaciers[J]. Science, 1994, 264(5156): 243~245.
[29]  Hastenrath S, Greischar L. Glacier recession on Kilimanjaro, East Africa, 1912-89[J]. Journal of Glaciology, 1997,43(145): 455~459.
[30]  Hodgkins R, Hagen J O, Hamran S-E. 20th century mass balance and thermal regime change at Scott Turnerbreen, SvalBard[J]. Annals of Glaciology, 1999, 28: 216~220.
[31]  Haeberli W. Historical evolution and operational aspects of worldwide glacier monitoring [A]. In: Haeberli W, Hoelzle M, Suter S, eds. In to the Second Century of Worldwide Glacier Monitoring: Prospects and Strategies [C]. UN-ESCO, Paris, 1998. 35~51.
[32]  Dyurgerov M B, Meier M F. Mass balance of mountain and subpolar glaciers: a new global assessment for 1961-1990[J]. Arctic and Alpine Research, 1997, 29(4): 379~391.
[33]  Dyurgerov M B, Meier M F. Year-to-year fluctuation of global mass balance of small glaciers and their contribution to sea level changes[J]. Arctic and Alpine Research, 1997, 29(4): 392~401.
[34]  Robinson D A, Keimig F T, Deway K F. Recent variations in Northern Hemisphere snow cover [A]. In: Proceedings of the 15th NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop [C],1991. 219~224.
[35]  Brown R D, Hughes M G, Robinson D A. Characterizing the long-term variability of snow-cover extent over the interior of North America[J]. Annuals of Glaciology, 1995, 21: 45~50.
[36]  Karl T R, Groisman P Ya, Knight R W,et al. Recent variations of snow cover and snowfall in North America and their relation to precipitation and temperature variations[J]. Journal of Climate, 1993, 6(7): 1 327~1 344.
[37]  Thompson S L, Pollard D. Greenland and Antarctic mass balances for present and doubled atmospheric CO2 from the GENESIS version-2 global climate model[J]. Journal of climate, 1997, 10: 871~900.
[38]  Ye H, Mather R. Polar snow cover changes and global warming [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 199717: 155~162.
[39]  Davis C H, Kluever C A, Haines B J. Elevation change of the southern Greenland ice sheet[J]. Science, 1998, 279:2 086~2 088.
[40]  Mosley-Thompson E, Paskievitch J F, Gow A J,et al. Late 20th century increase in South Pole snow accumulation[J].Journal of Geophysical Research, 1999, 104(D4): 3 877~3 886.
[41]  Li Peiji. Cryosphere fluctuation in the past century[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1988, 10(2): 105~116.[李培基.近百年来冷圈波动[J].冰川冻土, 1988, 10(2):105~116.]
[42]  Li Peiji. Response of Tibetan snow cover to global warming[J]. Journal of Chinese Geography, 1996, 51(3): 260~265. [李培基.青藏高原积雪对全球变暖的响应[J].地理学报, 1996, 51(3): 260~265.]
[43]  Li Peiji. Variation of snow water resources in northwestern China, 1951~1997[J]. Science in China, 1999, 29(Supplement D1): 63~69. [李培基. 1951~1997年中国西北地区积雪水资源的变化[J].中国科学(D),1999, 29(增1): 63~69.]
[44]  Ye H, Cho H R, Gustafson P E. The changes in Russian winter snow accumulation during 1936-83 and its spatial patterns[J]. Journal of Climate, 1998, 11: 856~863.
[45]  Fallot J M, Barry R G, Hoogstrate D. Variations in meancold season temperature, precipitation and snow depths during the last 100 years in the former Soviet Union (FSU)[J]. Hydrol Sci-J Sci Hydrol, 1997, 42(3): 301~327.
[46]  Hughes M G, Robinson D A. Historical snow cover variability in the Great Plains Region of the USA: 1910 through to1993 [J]. International Journal of Climatology, 1996, 16:1 005~1 018.
[47]  Frei A, Robinson D A. Northern Hemisphere snow extent:regional variability 1972~1994[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 1999, 19: 1 535~1 560.
[48]  Brown R D, Goodison B E. Interannual variability in reconstructed Canadian snow cover, 1915~1992[J]. Journal of Climate, 1996, 9: 1 299~1 318.
[49]  Brown R D. Historical variability in Northern Hemisphere spring snow-covered area[J]. Annuals of Glaciology, 1997,25, 340~346.
[50]  Gilichinsky D A, Barry R G, Bykhovets S S,et al. A century of temperature observations of soil climate: methods of analysis and long-term trends [A]. In: Lewkowicz A G, Allard M, eds. Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Permafrost, June 23 ~ 27, 1998, Yellowknife, Canada [C]. 1998. 313~317.
[51]  Lachenbruch A H, Marshall B V. Changing climate: Geothermal evidence from permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic[J].Science, 1986, 234(4777): 689~696.
[52]  Huang S, Pollack H N, Shen P Y. Temperature trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures[J]. Nature, 2000, 403: 756~758.
[53]  Wang Shaoling. Evolution of permafrost along the Qinghai-Tibet Road in the past several decades[J]. Arid Land Geography, 1993, 16(1): 1~7. [王绍令.近几十年来青藏公路沿线多年冻土变化[J].干旱区地理, 1993, 16(1): 1~7.]
[54]  Gu Zhongwei, Zhou Youwu, Liang Fengxian,et al. Permafrost features and their changes in Amur area, Daxinganling Prefecture, Northeastern China [A]. In: Proceedings of Sixth International Coference on Permafrost, July 5-9, Beijing, 1993 [C]. Guangzhou: South China University of Technology Press, 1993, 1: 204~209.
[55]  Yu Shengqing, Wang Zhanchen. The degeneration of permafrost in upstream valley region of Heilong River [A]. In:Proceedings of Sixth International Coference on Permafrost, July 5~9, Beijing, 1993 [C]. Guangzhou: South China University of Technology Press, 1993, 1: 755~757.
[56]  Haeberli W, Hoclzle M, Keller F,et al. Monitoring the long-term revolution of mountain permafrost in the Swiss Alps [A]. In: Proceedings of Sixth International Coference on Permafrost, July 5~9, Beijing, 1993 [C]. Guangzhou: South China University of Technology Press, 1993, 1: 214~219.
[57]  Kwong Y T J, Gan T Y. Northward migration of permafrost along the Mackenzie Highway and climatic warming[J]. Climatic Change, 1994, 26(4): 399~419.
[58]  Osterkamp T E, Romanovsky V E. Evidence for warming and thawing of discontinuous permafrost in Alaska[J]. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, 1999, 10(1): 17~37.
[59]  Lamb H H. Climate: present, past and future [M]. London: Methuen and Co Ltd, 1977, 2: 449~461.
[60]  Mysak L A, Manak D K, Marsden R F. Sea-ice anomalies observed in the Greenland and Labrador Seas during 1901-1984 and their relation to an interdecadal Arctic climate cycle[J]. Climate Dynamics, 1990, 5(2): 111~133.
[61]  Chapman W L, Walsh J E. Recent variations of sea ice and air temperature in high latitudes[J]. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 1993, 74: 33~47.
[62]  Cavalieri D J, Gloersen P, Parkinson C L,et al. Observed hemispheric asymmetry in global sea ice changes[J]. Science, 1997, 278: 1 104~1 106.
[63]  Johannessen O M, Shalina E V, Miles M W. Satellite evidence for an Arctic sea ice cover in transformation[J]. Science, 1999, 286: 1 937~1 939.
[64]  Rothrock D A, Yu Y, Maykut. Thinning of the Arctic seaice cover[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 1999, 26(23):3 469~3 472.
[65]  Vinnikov K Y, Robock A, Stouffer R J,et al. Global warming and Northern hemisphere sea ice extent[J]. Science,1999, 286: 1 934~1 937.
[66]  Diaz H F, Graham N E. Recent changes in tropical freezing heights and the role of sea surface temperature[J]. Nature,1996, 383(6596): 152~155.
[67]  Thompson L G, Mosley-Thompson E, Dansgaard W,et al.The little Ice Age as recorded in the stratigraphy of the tropical Quelccaya Ice Cap[J]. Science, 1986, 234(4774): 361~364.
[68]  Tandong Yao, Thompson L G, Mosley-Thompson,et al.Climatological significance of δ18O in north Tibetan ice core[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1996, 101(D23): 29531~29 537.
[69]  Yao Tandong, Masson V, Jouzel J,et al. Relationships between δ18O in precipitation and surface air temperature in theUrumqi River Basin, east Tianshan Mountains, China[J].Geophysical Research Letters, 1999, 26(23): 3 473~3 476.
[70]  Zhang Xinping, Shi Yafeng, Yao Tandong. Variational features of precipitation δ18O in Northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Science in China, 1995, 25(B5): 540~547. [章新平,施雅风,姚檀栋.青藏高原东北部降水中δ18O的变化特征[J].中国科学(B), 1995, 25(5): 540~547.]
[71]  Tian Lide, Yao Tandong, Yang Zhihong. Spatial distribution of δ18O in precipitation over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its controlling factors [A]. In: Annual report of the study on the formation, evolution, environmental changes and ecosystem of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, 1995 [C]. Beijing: Science in China Press, 1996. 243~250. [田立德,姚檀栋,杨志红.青藏高原降水中δ18O的空间分布特征及其影响因素[A].见:青藏高原形成演化、环境变迁与生态系统研究学术论文年刊(1995)[C].北京:科学出版社, 1996. 243~250.]
[72]  Thompson L G, Mosley-Thompson E, Davis M E,et al. Late glacial stage and Holocence tropical ice core records from Huascaran, Peru[J]. Science, 1995, 269(5220): 46~50.
[73]  Naftz D L, Klusman R W, Michel R L,et al. Little ice age evidence from a south-central North American ice core, USA[J]. Arctic and Alpine Research, 1996, 28(1): 35~41.
[74]  Holdsworth G, Krouse H R, Nosal M. Ice core climate signals from Mount Logan, Yukon A D 1700-1897 [A]. In:Bradley R S, Jones P D, eds. Climate since A D 1500[C].London: Routledge, 1992. 483~504.
[75]  Baker D, Moser H, Oerter H,et al. Comparison of the  2H and18O content of ice cores from a temperate Alpine glacier (Vernagtferner, Austria) with climatic data[J]. Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie, 1985, 21: 389 ~395.
[76]  Yao Tandong, Xie Zichu, Wu Xiaoling,et al. Climte change since Little Ice Age recorded by Dunde Ice Cap[J]. Science in China, 1990, 20(B11): 1 198~1 201.[姚檀栋,谢自楚,武筱舟令,等.敦德冰帽中的小冰期气候记录[J].中国科学(B),1990, 20(11): 1198~1201.]
[77]  Yao Tandong, Jiao Keqin, Yang H,et al. Climate change since Little Ice Age revealed by the Guliya ice core[J]. Science in China, 1995, 25(B10): 1 108~1 114. [姚檀栋,焦克勤,杨志红,等.古里雅冰芯中小冰期以来的气候变化[J].中国科学(B), 1995, 25(10): 1108~1114.]
[78]  Yao Tandong, Yang Zhihong, Liu Jinshou. Recent warming as recorded in ice cores from the Tibetan Plateau[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 1994, 39(5): 438~441. [姚檀栋,杨志红, 刘景寿.冰芯记录所揭示的青藏高原升温[J].科学通报,1994, 39(5): 438~441.].
[79]  Thompson L G, Mosley-Thompson E, Davis M,et al.“Recent warming”: ice core evidence from tropical ice cores with emphasis on Central Asia[J]. Global and Planetary Chang1993, 7: 145~156.
[80]  Barlow L K, Sadler J P, Ogilvie A E J,et al. Interdisciplinary investigations of the end of the Norse Weastern Settlement in Greenland[J]. The Holocene, 1997, 7(4): 489~499.
[81]  Mosley-Thompson E. Paleoenvironmental conditions in Antarctica since A D 1500: ice core evidence [A]. In: Bradley R S, Jones P D, eds. Climate since A D 1500[C]. London:Routledge, 1992. 572~590.
[82]  Peel D A, Mulvaney R, Pasteur E C,et al. Climate changes in the Atlantic sector of Antarctica over the past 500 years from ice-core and other evidence [A]. In: Jones P D, Bradley R S, and Jouzel J, eds. Climatic Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years [C]. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1996. 243~262.
[83]  Ren Jiawen, Qin Dahe, Allison I. Distribution of stable isotopes in surface snow and climatic change in past decades over the Lambert Glacier Basin, East Antarctica[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 1998, 20(4): 425~431.
[84]  Thompson L G, Peel A D, Mosley-Thompson E,et al. Climate since AD 1510 on Dyer Plateau, Antarctic Peninsula:evidence for recent climate change[J]. Annuals of Glaciology, 1994, 20: 420~426.

[1] 王澄海, 张晟宁, 张飞民, 李课臣, 杨凯. 论全球变暖背景下中国西北地区降水增加问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(9): 980-989.
[2] 张子洋, 闫明, MULVANEY Robert, 季峻峰, 效存德, 刘雷保, 安春雷. 东南极 LGB69冰芯 17122001年气温变化记录的初步研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(2): 172-184.
[3] 康世昌, 郭万钦, 吴通华, 钟歆玥, 陈仁升, 许民, 陈金雷, 杨瑞敏. “一带一路”区域冰冻圈变化及其对水资源的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(1): 1-17.
[4] 徐一丹,李建平,汪秋云,林霄沛. 全球变暖停滞的研究进展回顾[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(2): 175-190.
[5] 牛富俊, 王玮, 林战举, 罗京. 青藏高原多年冻土区热喀斯特湖环境及水文学效应研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(4): 335-342.
[6] 黄平, 周士杰. 全球变暖下热带降水变化研究回顾与挑战 *[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(11): 1181-1192.
[7] 马天鸣, 谢周清, 李院生. 极地冰芯电学性质及导电测量技术研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(2): 161-170.
[8] 林霄沛, 许丽晓, 李建平, 罗德海, 刘海龙. 全球变暖“停滞”现象辨识与机理研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(10): 995-1000.
[9] 杨建平, 丁永建, 方一平, 秦大河. 冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(5): 517-529.
[10] 陈幸荣, 蔡怡, 谭晶, 黄勇勇, 汪雷. 全球变暖hiatus现象的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(8): 947-955.
[11] 游超, 姚檀栋, 邬光剑. 雪冰中生物质燃烧记录研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(6): 662-673.
[12] 王磊, 李秀萍, 周璟, 刘文彬, 阳坤. 青藏高原水文模拟的现状及未来[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(6): 674-682.
[13] 陈仁升, 阳勇, 韩春坛, 刘俊峰, 康尔泗, 宋耀选, 刘章文. 高寒区典型下垫面水文功能小流域观测试验研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(4): 507-514.
[14] 余克服, 张光学, 汪稔. 南海珊瑚礁: 从全球变化到油气勘探—第三届地球系统科学大会专题评述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(11): 1287-1293.
[15] 丁永建,效存德,. 冰冻圈变化及其影响研究的主要科学问题概论[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(10): 1067-1076.
阅读次数
全文


摘要