陆地表层水贮量变化对海平面上升贡献的综合评估

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2001.01.0106

地球科学进展 ›› 2001, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (1): 106 -112. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2001.01.0106

丁永建,秦大河,叶柏生,刘时银

中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2000-03-15 修回日期:2000-07-10 出版日期:2001-02-01
通讯作者: 丁永建(1958-),男,甘肃天水人,研究员,主要从事寒区水文与环境研究. E-mail:dyj@ns.lzb.ac.cn
基金资助:
中国科学院冰冻圈动态变化基础研究(三期)和国家自然科学基金项目“青藏高原典型地区多年冻土活动层内水文过程模拟研究”(编号:49971022)联合资助.

ASSESSMENT ON CONTRIBUTIONS OF LAND WATER STORAGE TO SEA LEVEL RISE

DING Yong-jian,QIN Da-he,YE Bai-sheng,LIU Shi-yin

Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute,CAS,Lanzhou730000,China

Received:2000-03-15 Revised:2000-07-10 Online:2001-02-01 Published:2001-02-01

由于气候变暖和人为活动的加剧,大陆表面水贮量正在发生着显著的变化,这必将引起海平面的变化。然而,陆地表层水贮量的变化是非常复杂的。主要讨论了地下水、人工水库、天然湖泊和森林退化对海平面影响的主要研究结果,重新评估了这些因素对海平面贡献的程度,尤其是考虑了中国相关因子的作用。还就一些很不确定的因素,如水库深层渗透水、土壤水贮量变化、灌溉蒸腾等对海平面的影响也进行了初步讨论。

关键词: 气候变化, 地下水, 人类活动, 海平面上升, 地表水

The surface water and ground water storages are changing due to direct anthropogenic and climatic causes. Changes of the surface water and ground water storage should arouse sea level rise. However, changes of the surface water and ground water storage are very complicated. Their effect on the sea level is attributed by the ground water depletion, changes in man made reservoir and natural lake storage, deforestation, loss of wetlands, permafrost thawing, retreating of glaciers and ice sheets and increase in soil moisture and so on. This paper focuses on effect of the ground water, man made reservoir, natural lake and deforestation on the sea level. We re examine recent estimates and re assess the contributions of those factors to sea level rise, especially added the contributions of some corresponding factors from China, which have been neglected in former studied. Some overestimates and uncertain factors such as deep seepage beneath reservoirs, evaporation over reservoirs,soil water storage, evaporation and transpiration by irrigation are discussed. The contribution of the total excess charge for the global ground water to the sea level rise might fall in the range of 0.35~0.45 mm/a, and the cumulating sea level rise caused by this factor is estimated to be 11.05 mm. We suggest that the total water impoundment at present would be about 5.0×10¹² ~6.0×10¹² m³(by 50% to 60% of total reservoir capacity) in the world. These figures amount to a 13.9 to 16.7 mm sea level decrease, equivalent to an average rate of 0.232 to 0.278 mm/a over the last 60 years. The contribution of lake storage to sea level rise estimated is 0.112 mm/a for rate and 3.69 mm for total. The deforested rate of 10×10 10 m²/a is available value to estimate contribution of deforestation to sea level rise in the past 50 years. It would add 3.3×10¹⁰ m³/a water to the ocean, amounting to 0.092 mm/a, or 4.58 mm in 50 years.

Key words: Human activity, Ground water, Climate change, Sea level rise, Surface water.

中图分类号:

P467

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