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地球科学进展  2014, Vol. 29 Issue (5): 577-589    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0577
综述与评述     
近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述
高涛1, 2, 谢立安1, 3
1.海洋环境与生态教育部重点实验室,中国海洋大学,山东 青岛 266100; 2.菏泽学院资源与环境系,山东 菏泽 274015; 3.Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695, USA
Study on Progress of the Trends and Physical causes of Extreme Precipitation in China During the Last 50 Years
Gao Tao1, 2, Xie Lian1, 3
1. Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology, Ministry of Education, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100,Shandong, China; 2. The Department of Resources and Environment Science, Heze University, Heze 274015, Shandong, China; 3. Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695, USA
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摘要:

对中国近50年来极端降水事件的研究表明,在全球变暖背景下极端降水事件的频率和强度均有升高的趋势,但存在明显的区域差异。观测分析表明长江中下游,东南地区和西北的部分区域极端降水有增加趋势,而华北、东北和西南的部分地区有减少趋势。现阶段不同模式模拟的结果还存在差异,但总的预测结论表明中国极端降水有极化的趋势。首先从统计学角度通过分析均值和极值的关系,探讨了极端降水事件概念的界定,然后分析了不同区域极端降水的变化趋势。在综述中国极端降水研究的基础上,以极端降水变化趋势较为复杂的长江流域作为典型气候区,从海—气相互作用角度对影响极端降水的物理机制和过程进行了总结。分析表明能够反映极端降水本质特性的定义和影响极端降水的物理过程还需要进一步研究,并且随着研究深入,新的影响极端降水的因子也会被逐渐发现。

关键词: 物理成因全球气候变化极端降水事件    
Abstract:

Studies on extreme precipitation events during last 50 years indicated that the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes increased but exhibited distinct regional difference under the background of global warming. Observations showed that extreme precipitation increased in mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, southeast and some regions in northwestern China, moreover the decreasing trends of extreme precipitation were investigated in north, northeast and southwest regions. Overall prediction of models suggested that the extreme precipitation in China would be polarized although differences of outputs presented between different models. Concepts and definitions of extreme precipitation events were investigated by analyzing the relationship between mean and extreme from the angle of statistics, and then the trends of precipitation extremes were analyzed in different regions. Physical mechanisms and processes affecting extreme precipitation were summarized from the viewpoint of air-sea interaction taking Yangtze River basin, where the trends of extreme precipitation were complex, as typical climate zone, on the basis of summary of studies of extreme precipitation in China. However, the definitions that can reflect the essence of extreme precipitation need further study, and the physical processes affecting extreme precipitation are not fully understood. In addition, the new impact factors are constantly discovered along with the in-depth study of extreme precipitation events.

Key words: Physical causes.    Extreme precipitation events    Global climate change
出版日期: 2014-05-10
:  P47  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目“亚洲沙尘沉降对近海和大洋初级生产过程影响的对比研究”(编号:41210008); 菏泽学院中青年学术骨干基金资助

通讯作者: 谢立安(1961-),男,美国北卡罗来纳州罗利市人,教授,主要从事海洋气象研究. E-mail: xie@ncsu.edu     E-mail: xie@ncsu.edu
作者简介: 高涛(1980-),男,山东曹县人,博士研究生,主要从事极端降水观测和模拟研究. E-mail:gaotao212@163.com
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高涛, 谢立安. 近50年来中国极端降水趋势与物理成因研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(5): 577-589.

Gao Tao, Xie Lian. Study on Progress of the Trends and Physical causes of Extreme Precipitation in China During the Last 50 Years. Advances in Earth Science, 2014, 29(5): 577-589.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.05.0577        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2014/V29/I5/577

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