地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (6): 634 -642. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.06.0634.

所属专题： 青藏高原研究——青藏科考；

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基于树轮资料初探过去千年强火山喷发与青藏高原东部温度变化关系
李明启 1( ), 邵雪梅 1, 2   
  1. 1.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京 100101
    2.中国科学院青藏高原地球科学卓越创新中心,北京 100101
  • 收稿日期:2016-03-08 修回日期:2016-05-20 出版日期:2016-06-20
  • 基金资助:
    *国家自然科学基金重点项目“过去千年自然外强迫异常期的中国气候变化空间型及其形成机制”(编号:41430528);国家自然科学基金面上项目“横断山区树轮揭示的过去500年火山喷发信号及其气候效应”(编号:41571194)资助

Study on the Relationship between Large Volcanic Eruptions and Temperature Variation Based on Tree-Ring Data in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Past Millennium

Mingqi Li 1( ), Xuemei Shao 1, 2   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
    2.Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth System Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
  • Received:2016-03-08 Revised:2016-05-20 Online:2016-06-20 Published:2016-06-10
  • About author:

    First author:Li Mingqi(1979-), male, Dongming County, Shandong Province, Research Assistant. Research areas include the dendroclimatology.E-mail:limq@igsnrr.ac.cn

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China “Spatial patterns of climate change in China driven by the anomalies of natural external forcings during the past millennium”(No.41430528);The General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China “Volcanic eruption signals from tree-ring and its effect on climate in the Hengduan Mountain area in the past 500 years”(No.41571194)
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强火山喷发是影响年际至年代际全球气候变化的重要因素之一。基于树木年轮资料重建的6条温度序列,集成重建了青藏高原东北部过去1 300多年和青藏高原东南部过去600多年的温度序列。在过去1 300多年,青藏高原东北部存在3个明显的冷期:670—920年、1000—1310年和1590—1930年;3个明显的暖期:920—1000年、1310—1590年和1930—2000年。青藏高原东南部过去600多年存在2个明显的冷期:1385—1450年和1570—1820年,2个明显的暖期:1450—1570年和1820—2000年。结合火山活动序列年表,利用时序叠加法,初步分析了过去千年强火山喷发对青藏高原东部温度变化的影响。结果表明:10°S~10°N的强火山喷发后第一年青藏高原东部出现降温,并且在α=0.05置信水平上东北部地区降温显著,东南部地区第二年达到降温显著水平;其他纬度的强火山喷发对青藏高原东北部和东南部的温度影响存在一定差异,第一年后两区均发生降温,但均未达到显著水平,然而青藏高原东北部地区第四年降温达到显著水平。这可能主要是由区域差异、不同季节温度对火山活动响应差异,或者火山喷发性质、季节、纬度以及区域的气候背景存在差异引起的。

关键词: 青藏高原东部, 强火山喷发, 树木年轮, 过去1 000年, 温度

Volcanic eruptions can significantly cool the global troposphere on the time scales from several months up to a decade due to reflection of solar radiation by sulfate aerosols and feedback mechanisms in the climate system. The impact of volcanic eruptions on global climate are discussed in many studies. However, few studies have been done on the impact of volcanic eruption on climate change in China in the past millennium. The 1300-year and 600-year temperature series were reconstructed based on the six tree-ring temperature proxy data in northeastern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Three warm periods occurred in 670-920,1000-1310 and 1590-1930, and three cold periods happened at 920-1000,1310-1590 and 1930-2000 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. There were two obviously warm periods (1385-1450 and 1570-1820) and two cold periods (1450-1570 and 1820-2000) in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. Contrasting with volcanic eruption chronology, we analyzed the relationship between volcanic activity and temperature variation in the eastern Tibetan plateau during the past millennium using Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) method. The results indicated that the temperature decreased one year after large volcanic eruptions located beteen 10°S and 10°N in latitude in northeastern Tibetan Plateau and two years in southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The volcanic eruptions occurred at different latitudes have different impacts on the temperature variations, which may be caused by regional difference, the nature of the eruption, the magnitude of the resulting change in incoming solar radiation, prevailing background climate and internal variability, season, latitude, and other considerations.

Key words: The eastern Tibetan Plateau, Large volcanic eruption, Tree-ring, Past millennium, Temperature.

中图分类号: 

表1 本文所收集的6条温度序列的信息
Table 1 Information of six temperature series selected in this study
序号 区域 树轮指标 重建指标 时段 编号 参考文献
1 祁连山中部 宽度 Tmin(1~8月) 670—2012年 Zhang2014 [19]
2 乌兰 宽度 T(p9~c4月) 1000—2004年 Zhu2008 [26]
3 阿尼玛卿山 宽度 Tmin(p10~c4月) 1560—2001年 Gou2008 [34]
4 波密—林芝 宽度 T(8月) 1385—2002年 Zhu2011 [27]
5 高黎贡山 宽度 T(5~8月) 1585—2005年 Fan2010 [32]
6 高黎贡山 密度 T(8~9月) 1690—2008年 Li2015 [33]
图1 本文所收集序列和气象站点分布图
黑圆圈:1.Zhang2014, 2.Zhu2008,3.Gou2008,4.Zhu2011,5.Fan2010,6.Li2015;黑三角:7.张掖站,8.野牛沟站,9.德令哈站,10.兴海站,11.波密站,12.德钦站
Fig.1 Locations of the six temperature series and six meteorological stations in this study
Black dots: 1.Zhang2014, 2.Zhu2008, 3.Gou2008, 4.Zhu2011,5.Fan2010,6.Li2015; Black triangles: 7.Zhangye,8.Yeniugou,9.Delingha,10.Xinghai,11.Bomi,12.Deqin
表2 青藏高原东北部及东南部3条序列相关系数
Table 2 Correlation coefficients between the selected series in the eastern Tibetan Plateau
青藏高原东北部 青藏高原东南部
Gou2008 Zhu2008 Li2015 Fan2010
Zhu2008 0.206* Fan2010 0.447*
Zhang2014 0.222* 0.49* Zhu2011 -0.023 -0.024
表3 过去千年10次强火山喷发(VEI≥6)的喷发年份、经纬度和VEI等级
Table 3 The time, latitude, longitude and VEI of 10 volcanic eruptions (VEI≥6) in the past millennium
序号 喷发年份 纬度 经度 VEI
1 942年 41.98°N 128.08°E 7
2 1257年 8.42°S 116.47°E 7
3 1280年 0.85°S 78.9°W 6
4 1477年 64.63°N 17.53°W 6
5 1600年 16.608°S 70.85°W 6
6 1815年 8.25°S 118°E 7
7 1883年 6.102°S 105.423°E 6
8 1902年 14.756°N 91.552°W 6
9 1912年 58.27°N 155.157°W 6
10 1991年 15.13°N 120.35°E 6
图2 青藏高原东北部冬春季和东南部夏季温度变化
灰色曲线为温度距平值,黑色粗曲线是11年平滑曲线
Fig.2 The winter-spring temperature variations in northeastern Tibetan Plateau and summer temperature variations in southeastern Tibetan Plateau
Grey line: Temperature anomaly; Thick black line: 11-year smoothing values
表4 青藏高原东北部(NE)和东南部(SE)集成温度序列与季节观测温度的相关系数
Table 4 Correlation coefficients of instrumental seasonal temperature and the reconstructed temperature in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NE) and Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SE)
气象站点 秋 冬 春 夏
张掖与野牛沟 NE 0.164 0.522** 0.511** 0.563**
SE 0.082 0.182 0.018 0.394*
德令哈 NE 0.536** 0.587** 0.282 0.210
SE 0.203 0.264 0.161 0.2
兴海 NE 0.423** 0.536** 0.476** 0.440**
SE 0.183 0.286 0.304 0.403**
波密 NE 0.301 0.41** 0.319* 0.278
SE 0.08 0.343* 0.206 0.422**
德钦 NE 0.471** 0.298* 0.377** 0.585**
SE 0.224 0.152 0.194 0.43**
表5 青藏高原东北部(NE)和东南部(SE)集成温度序列与观测年温度的相关系数
Table 5 Correlation coefficients of instrumental annual temperature and the reconstructed temperature in Northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NE) and Southeastern Tibetan Plateau (SE)
气象站点 野牛沟与张掖 德令哈 兴海 德钦 波密
资料长度 1960—2000年 1956—2000年 1960—2000年 1954—2000年 1961—2000年
NE 0.59** 0.616** 0.624** 0.532** 0.412**
SE 0.228 0.3* 0.383** 0.279 0.422**
图3 10次强火山喷发(VEI≥6)对青藏高东部过去1 000年温度变化影响的时序叠加法分析结果
(a),(b)和(c)分别代 表10 °S~10°N、南北纬10°~40°及北纬40°以北强火山喷发对青藏高原东北部温度变化影响分析结果;(d),(e)和 (f)分别为10°S~10°N、南北纬10°~40°及北纬40°以北强火山喷发对青藏高原东南部温度变化影响分析结果;虚线表示95%置信度
Fig.3 Superposed epoch analyses centered on 10 large volcanic eruptions (VEI≥6) of the past millennium in the eastern Tibetan Plateau
(a)~(c): The impact of large volcanic eruptions in 10°S~10°N, 10°~40°S/N and north of 40°N on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, respectively; (d)~(f): The impact of large volcanic eruptions in 10°S~10°N, 10°~40°S/N and north of 40°N on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, respectively. The dot lines:95% confidence limit
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