地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (3): 420 -428. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2014.03.0420

上一篇    

干旱区绿洲城市城镇化发展状况及协调性浅析--以吐鲁番地区为例
党建华 1, 2( ), 瓦哈甫.哈力克 1, 3, *( ), 张玉萍 3, 邓宝山 1, 2   
  1. 1.新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046
    2. 新疆大学资源与环境科学学院, 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046
    3.新疆大学旅游学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830046
  • 收稿日期:2013-08-15 修回日期:2014-03-03 出版日期:2014-03-20
  • 通讯作者: 瓦哈甫.哈力克 E-mail:dangjianhua0217@163.com;hwahap@xju.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金面上项目“吐鲁番绿洲人与自然耦合系统变化的驱动与适应机制研究”(编号:41271168)资助

A Brief Analysis of the Situations of the Urbanization Development and the Coordination in Arid Area

Jianhua Dang 1, 2( ), Halik Wahap 1, 3( ), Yuping Zhang 3, Baoshan Deng 1, 2   

  1. 1. The Key Laboratory for Oasis Ecosystem of MOE, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
    2. College of Resource and Environment Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
    3. College of Tourism Management, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
  • Received:2013-08-15 Revised:2014-03-03 Online:2014-03-20 Published:2014-03-10
全文 ( 1 ) 下载PDF ( 1205 )

城镇化是一个国家或地区经济发展的必经途径,同时也是衡量某地区经济发展水平的重要标志之一。城镇化进程不仅关系到区域人口、经济和环境的可持续发展,还关系到区域平衡与区域生产效率,以致关系到区域的综合竞争力。利用2001—2011年吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态方面的相关数据,剖析吐鲁番地区城镇化系统,选出并构建吐鲁番地区人口、经济、社会和生态4个城镇化系统的6个评价指标体系,对指标进行定量分析;计算城镇化4个系统以及城镇化发展水平的综合评价指数及其各系统的协调度,根据各子系统评价指数建立数学模型,分析吐鲁番地区城镇化驱动因子以及制约该地区城镇化进程的影响因素;并推算出吐鲁番地区城镇化的变化和发展趋势。

关键词: 城镇化, 人口, 经济, 社会, 生态

The urbanization is the necessary way for the economic development of a country or region and at the same time one of the important signs to measure the level of economic development in a region. This study focuses on the urbanization in Turpan area to analyze the situation and the coordination of the urbanization development in the oasis of the arid area. By building the index system of urbanization in population, economy, society and ecology system including 16 evaluation index and using the entropy-based weight to determine the weight of each index, with the weighted sum of the Turpan area in 2001-2011, the urbanization of the composite index were quantitatively analyzed. Based on the situation of urbanization, the coordination of the urbanization is calculated and the future development trend on the mathematical models is predicted. On this basis, the development trend of Turpan area in the future is predicted with linear-regression analysis method and trend extrapolation method. Through the above information, the main driving force and the restricting factors of urbanization development in Turpan area can be found. Then, the specific suggestions and opinions in the development of the urbanization in Turpan area, even in the arid area are put forward. The innovation of this study is the study area located in the arid zone in oasis area and then the calculation of the coordination in the urbanization development process. Therefore, a more in-depth understanding of urbanization in the arid zone in oasis area is achieved.

Key words: Urbanization, Population, Economy, Society, Ecology.

中图分类号: 

图1 研究区概况图
Fig.1 The overview diagram in the study area
表1 吐鲁番地区2001—2011年城镇化水平分析系统
Table 1 The urbanization level analysis system in Turpan region at 2001-2011
大系统 子系统 评价指标
城镇化测度f 人口城镇化fa 城镇人口比重(%)f1
第二产业就业人口(人)f2
第三产业就业人口(人)f3
城镇登记失业率(%)f4
经济城镇化fb 人均GDP (万元) f5
第二产业占GDP比值(%) f6
社会消费品零售总额(万元)f7
乡镇企业总产值(万元)f8
社会城镇化fc 燃气普及率(%)f9
用水普及率(%)f10
万人拥有医生数(人)f11
万人拥有床位数(张)f12
生态城镇化fd 固体废弃物综合利用率(%)f13
人均公共绿地面积(m2)f14
工业废水排放达标率(%)f15
工业废水排放量(t)f16
表2 吐鲁番地区城镇化水平表
Table 2 The urbanization level table in Turpan area
年份 人口城镇
化水平
fa /%		 经济城镇
化水平
fb/%		 社会城镇
化水平
fc/%		 F生态城镇
化水平
fd/%		 城镇化综
合水平
f*/%
2001 0.516 0.349 0.562 0.438 7.499
2002 0.535 0.361 0.575 0.395 7.502
2003 0.552 0.398 0.588 0.579 8.511
2004 0.582 0.432 0.512 0.632 8.676
2005 0.542 0.406 0.585 0.626 8.680
2006 0.558 0.478 0.537 0.897 9.930
2007 0.602 0.591 0.560 0.438 8.809
2008 0.573 0.691 0.561 0.488 9.230
2009 0.593 0.739 0.568 0.426 9.352
2010 0.611 0.894 0.621 0.589 10.916
2011 0.660 0.910 0.568 0.554 10.823
表3 吐鲁番地区城镇化进程系统协调度测算表
Table 3 The urbanization system coordination degree measurement in Turpan area
年份 H1 H2 H3 H4 HT
2002 0.942 0.169 0.659 0.833 0.088
2003 0.618 0.725 0.510 0.993 0.227
2004 0.600 0.687 0.627 0.804 0.208
2005 0.603 0.626 0.272 0.651 0.067
2006 0.805 0.813 0.808 0.996 0.526
2007 0.626 0.750 0.632 0.497 0.147
2008 0.807 0.900 0.618 0.788 0.353
2009 0.562 0.948 0.881 0.780 0.366
2010 0.867 0.968 0.909 0.986 0.752
2011 0.975 0.969 0.953 0.983 0.885
图2 吐鲁番地区各子系统城镇化发展时间序列趋势
Fig.2 The development trend of time series in Turpan area urbanization
图3 吐鲁番地区综合城镇化发展时间序列趋势
Fig.3 The comprehensive development trend of time series in Turpan area urbanization
图4 吐鲁番地区城镇化发展协调度时间序列趋势
Fig.4 The development coordination degree of time series trend in Turpan area urbanization
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