基于城市化的中国能源消费前景分析及对碳排放的相关思考

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.01.0057

工业化和城市化是中国未来的两大发展趋势。以往对中国未来能源消费及碳排放的预测大都是从工业化层面出发，忽略了城市化过程导致的生活能源消费的巨大增量。推动城市化进程是提升生活质量、满足人的基本权利的重要手段；立足城市化进程，保障人均能源消费及碳排放空间是确保人人享有基本的生存权和发展权的重要基础。从对中国城市化进程的发展态势出发，提出了城市化率提高、城镇居民生活质量提升、贫困人口脱贫等3个核心问题，并就这3个领域生活能源消费现状及未来可能导致的能源消费增量进行了定量分析；结果发现，无论是城镇人口还是农村人口，其生活能源消费都有大量增长的趋势。在此基础上，构建了以生产能源消费和生活能源消费两大分类为主体的中国未来能源消费预测模型，模型预测结果表明：虽然未来（2010—2050年）生产领域能源消费存在减缓增长甚至趋于稳定的态势，但是由于生活能源的急剧增长，总能源消费量仍然呈现出持续增长的趋势，在很长的时期内不会出现下降的可能。由于碳排放同能源消费密切相关，因而近期难以依赖能源消费量的下降实现碳排放量的降低。最后指出，我国一方面要积极践行绿色发展，走低碳经济之路；另一方面，在与能源消费密切相关的碳减排及排放空间谈判问题上，应该要有清醒的认识，以数据说话，争取最大利益。

关键词: 城市化, 生活能源, 碳排放, 能源消费, 预测

Industrialization and urbanization are two major trends of China's future development. Former predictions on China′s future energy consumption and carbon emission mostly started from the aspect of industrialization, which ignored the huge amount of residential energy consumption related with urbanization. Urbanization is of great importance for improving life quality and satisfies man′s right for subsistence and development. We proposed three core items related with China′s urbanization, i.e. the increasing of urbanization rate, the improving of urban residents′ life quality, and the shaking off of poverty of povertystricken people. Resulted indicated that there are considerable room and obvious trends of residential energy increasing. Model consisting of productive and residential energy consumption was built based on the analysis, and the modeling results indicated that although the increasing of productive energy consumption would slow down, or even the amount tend to be stable, the total energy consumption will tend to grow significantly thanking for the fast increase of residential energy consumption. The peak of total energy consumption will be far away from former judgments. Therefore, it seems impossible that the carbon emission would decline in the near future for the close relationship between carbon emission and energy consumption. At last, the authors suggest that, on the one hand, we promote green development and lowcarbon economy; on the other hand, we pay more carefulness on the international negotiation on reduction and space allocation of carbon emission, in order to avoid putting ourselves in a passive position. 

Key words: Urbanization, Residential energy, Carbon emission, Energy consumption, Prediction.

中图分类号:

F407.2

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摘要

Analysis on the Future Energy Consumption and Preliminary Discussion on Carbon Emission of China from the Perspective Urbanization