地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (3): 236 -247. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.03.0236

综述与评述 上一篇    下一篇

地面重力观测数据在地震预测中的应用研究与进展
毛经伦 1, 2( ), 祝意青 1   
  1. 1.中国地震局第二监测中心,陕西 西安 710054
    2.中国地震局地震研究所,湖北 武汉 430071
  • 收稿日期:2017-08-09 修回日期:2018-01-20 出版日期:2018-03-20
  • 基金资助:
    *国家自然科学基金国家重大科研仪器研制专项项目“高精度绝对重力仪研制与应用”(编号:61627824);国家自然科学基金项目“综合利用地壳形变和重力测量资料定量研究鲜水河断裂强震演化规律”(编号:41374026)资助.

Progress in the Application of Ground Gravity Observation Data in Earthquake Prediction

Jinglun Mao 1, 2( ), Yiqing Zhu 1   

  1. 1.Second Crust Monitoring and Application Center, China Earthquake Administration,Xi’an 710054, China;
    2.Institute of Seismology, China Earthquake Administration,Wuhan 430071, China
  • Received:2017-08-09 Revised:2018-01-20 Online:2018-03-20 Published:2018-05-02
  • About author:

    First author:Mao Jinglun(1990-),male,Xi’an City,Shaanxi Province,Engineer. Research areas include seismic gravimetry,time-varying gravity and its relation to strong earthquakes. E-mail:371857582@qq.com

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the Major Scientific Research Instrument Development Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Development and application of high precision absolute gravimeter”(No.61627824);The National Natural Science Foundation of China“Quantitative study on the evolution law of strong earthquakes in the Xianshuihe fault by using crustal deformation and gravimetry data”(No.41374026).
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地震发生过程和孕育机制异常复杂,加之大地震“非频发性”影响和人类对地球内部结构与活动规律认识的不足,使得地震预测极其困难。地面重力观测已经成为许多国家和地区研究地震前兆信息的主要途径之一。简要总结了中国大陆地面重力观测技术与观测网络:地面重力测量仪器从17世纪的惠更斯物理摆发展到今天的高精度绝对重力仪,测量精度已经达到±1×10-8 m/s2。我国已相继建立了国家重力基本网、中国数字地震观测网络、中国地壳运动观测网络、中国大陆构造环境监测网络等,为重力场非潮汐变化、地震、构造运动等的监测提供了公共平台;通过具体震例阐述了地面重力观测数据在地震预测中的作用,利用地面重力观测数据能较好地捕捉强震孕育过程的重力变化信息,为强震中长期预测提供重要依据;分析了震前区域重力场的时空变化特征及其与强震的关系:在震级高于MS 5.0的地震发生前,一般都会出现较大幅度和范围的重力异常区。强震主要发生在重力场变化分布差异较为剧烈的地区。重力场动态变化图像能够比较清晰地反映大地震在孕育和发生过程中的前兆信息。最后,提出了地面重力技术在地震前兆观测中存在的问题,并对利用重力测量资料开展地震预测研究进行了展望。

关键词: 重力数据, 重力场变化, 地震重力前兆, 地震预测, 孕震过程

The mechanism of earthquake inoculation and the process of earthquake occurrence are very complicated. Additionally, earthquakes do not happen very often, and we lack enough cognition to the earth’s interior structure, activity regularity and other key elements. As a result, research progress about the theory of earthquake precursors has been greatly restricted. Ground gravity observation has become one of the main ways to study earthquake precursor information in many countries and regions. This paper briefly summarized the surface gravity observation technology and observation network in China: the surface gravity measurement instrument developed from Huygens physical pendulum in seventeenth Century to today’s high-precision absolute gravimeter, and its accuracy reached to ±1×10-8 m/s2. China has successively established the National Gravity Network, Digital Earthquake Observation Network of China,the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China Ⅰ and the Crustal Movement Observation Network of China, to provide a public platform for monitoring non tidal gravity change, seismic gravity and tectonic movement. The use of specific examples illustrated the role of gravity observation data in earthquake prediction. The gravity observation data of ground gravity can be used to capture the information of gravity change in the process of strong earthquake inoculation, and to provide an important basis for the long-term prediction of strong earthquakes. The temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the regional gravity field and its relation to strong earthquakes were analyzed: Before the earthquake whose magnitude is higher than MS 5, generally there will be a large amplitude and range of gravity anomaly zones. Strong earthquakes occur mainly in areas where the gravity field changes violently. The dynamic change images of gravity field can clearly reflect the precursory information of large earthquakes during the inoculation and occurrence. Finally, the existing problems of surface gravity technology in earthquake precursor observation were put forward and the use of gravity measurement data in earthquake prediction research was prospected.

Key words: Gravity data, Gravity field change, Gravity precursor, Earthquake prediction, Seismogenic process.

中图分类号: 

表1 几种不同时期重力测量仪器的精度
Table 1 The accuracy of several gravity measuring instruments in different periods
时期 重力仪类型 精度/(m/s2) 研制国家
17世纪50年代 惠更斯物理摆 0.01 荷兰
19世纪20年代 斯坦纳克摆仪 ±1×10-5~2×10-5 匈牙利
19世纪30年代 Askania GS型重力仪 ±1×10-7~3×10-7 德国
20世纪40年代 LCR助动金属弹簧重力仪 ±2×10-6 美国
20世纪60年代 GWR-T型超导重力仪 ±1×10-8 美国
20世纪70年代 Scintrex CG型相对重力仪 ±1×10-7~3×10-7 加拿大
20世纪90年代以后 FG5-X型绝对重力仪 ±1×10-8 美国
表2 主流陆地重力仪及其技术参数
Table 2 Main stream land gravimeter and its technical parameters
型号 部分技术参数 产地
CG5全自动石英弹簧重力仪 分辨率:1 μGal;标准差<5 μGal;残余漂移<0.02 mGal/d 加拿大
CG6全自动石英弹簧重力仪 分辨率:0.1 μGal;标准差<5 μGal;残余漂移<20 μGal/d 加拿大
gPhoneX潮汐相对重力仪 分辨率:0.1 μGal;精度:1 μGal;漂移≤1.5 mGal/month 美国
iOSG标准型超导重力仪 噪声< 1(nm/s2)2/Hz,精度:10~40 nanoGal/min;漂移率<2 μGal/a 美国
iGrav轻便型超导重力仪 精度:频率域为1 nanoGal,时间域为0.05 μGal/min;漂移<0.5 μGal/month 美国
A10绝对重力仪 准确度:10 μGal;精确度:10 μGal/10 min;测量时间:2 min 美国
FG5-X绝对重力仪 准确度:2 μGal;精确度:15 μGal/,1 μGal/3.75 min,0.1 μGal/6.25 h 美国
FGL绝对重力仪 准确度:10 μGal;精确度:10 μGal/10 min 美国
表3 利用重力变化做出的地震中期预测结果
Table 3 Mid-term earthquake prediction results made by gravity changes
预测震中 预测震级
(MS)		 预测时窗 实际震级
(MS)		 实际震中 发震时间
36.0°N,80.0°E,R=200 km 6~7 2007—2008年 于田7.3 35.6°N,81.6°E 2008.03.21
31.6°N,103.7°E,R=200 km 6~7 2007—2008年 汶川8.0 31.0°N,103.4°E 2008.05.12
25.3°N,99.6°E,R=150 km >6 2007—2008年 攀枝花6.1 26.2°N,101.9°E 2008.08.30
25.6°N,100.2°E,R=150 km 6~7 2009年 姚安6.0 25.6°N,101.1°E 2009.07.09
30.2°N,102.2°E,R=100 km 约6 2013年 芦山7.0 30.3°N,103.0°E 2013.04.20
35.5°N,105.2°E,R=150 km >6 2011—2013年 岷县6.6 34.5°N,104.2°E 2013.07.22
26.9~30.4°N,101.5~103.5°E,R=100 km 约7 2014年 鲁甸6.5 27.1°N,103.3°E 2014.08.03
37.5°N,102.2°E,R=100 km 约6 2016年 门源6.4 37.68°N,101.62°E 2016.01.21
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