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地球科学进展  2017, Vol. 32 Issue (4): 382-395    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0382
容新尧1, 刘征宇2, 3, 段晚锁4
1.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081;
2.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison,Madison Wisconsin,USA;
3.北京大学物理学院大气与海洋科学系,北京 100871;
4.中国科学研大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029
Seasonal Dependence of the North Pacific and North Atlantic SST Predictability and Forecast Skill
Rong Xinyao1, Liu Zhengyu2, 3, Liu Yun2, Duan Wansuo4
1.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
2.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences & Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison,Madison Wisconsin, USA;
3.Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, School of Physics, Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;
4.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Ateospheric Sciences and GeophysicalFluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
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关键词: 年代际预测耦合模式北大西洋北太平洋季节依赖性    

In this paper, the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean were investigated by conducting three sets of perfect model forecast experiments using a global coupled general circulation model. The results show that the annual mean SSTA in the North Pacific is less predictable on decadal time scale, with the forecast skill notably weaker than that of the North Atlantic. By analyzing the predictability and forecast skill of seasonal mean SSTA, it is found that the decadal predictability and forecast skill of the winter mean (JFM) SSTA in the central and western North Pacific are significantly higher than those of other seasons, and the magnitude is comparable with that of the North Atlantic. The predictability and forecast skill of the North Atlantic SSTA also show seasonal variations. Further analysis indicates that the seasonal dependence of the SSTA decadal predictability and forecast skill in the North Pacific is due to the winter-to-winter reemergence mechanism of SSTA in the North Pacific, which results from the seasonal variation of the mixed layer depth of the North Pacific Ocean. While the seasonal dependence of the North Atlantic SSTA predictability and forecast skill might be related to seasonal variations of other processes, such as the Atlantic Decadal Oscillation. The results of this paper suggest that for decadal climate prediction, if the forecast skill of the seasonal mean is taken into account, we might obtain higher than annual mean forecast skill for some seasons.

Key words: Coupled GCM.    North Atlantic    Decadal prediction    North Pacific    Seasonal dependence
收稿日期: 2016-10-19 出版日期: 2017-04-20
ZTFLH:  P467  

公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目“基于FGOALS-s、CMA和CESM气候系统模式的年代际集合预测系统的建立与研究”(编号:GYHY201506012); 科技部全球变化研究项目(编号:2012CB955201)资助

作者简介: 容新尧(1979-),男,海南三亚人,副研究员,主要从事气候数值模拟及预测研究
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容新尧, 刘征宇, 段晚锁. 耦合模式中北太平洋和北大西洋海表面温度年代际可预报性和预报技巧的季节依赖性[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(4): 382-395.

Rong Xinyao, Liu Zhengyu, Liu Yun, Duan Wansuo. Seasonal Dependence of the North Pacific and North Atlantic SST Predictability and Forecast Skill. Advances in Earth Science, 2017, 32(4): 382-395.


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