全球海平面变化研究新进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.07.0730

综述了近10年来海平面变化研究的主要成果，分析了影响海平面变化的主要因素，探讨了海平面变化研究中存在的一些问题。结果表明：①近10年全球平均海平面上升幅度大约为2.5~3.84 mm/a，热膨胀是引起海平面上升的主因；②海平面变化具有时空分布差异——西太平洋和东印度洋地区上升最快，其值高出全球平均值的10倍以上；大西洋与太平洋30~40°N地区季节变化最明显；③将海平面季节高值时段与北半球热带气旋出现时间进行对比，发现每年8~10月份，在20~50°N的西北太平洋与北大西洋沿岸地区出现海平面最高值与热带气旋相叠加的全球危险海岸带，该地带包括中国大陆东部、日本沿海地区、美国东部海岸带、墨西哥湾地区和加勒比海地区。

关键词: 海平面变化, 海岸带, 冰川冰盖物质平衡, 沿海城市安全

The research of global sea level change of the last 10 years has been comprehensively reviewed and the main results of it have been obtained:(1) the global sea level rising ratios was around 2.5 mm/a to 3.84 mm/a, and the main contribution is from the thermal expansion of sea water; (2) there were some space differences for sea level rise, and the value in the West Pacific Ocean and the East Indian Ocean was especially more 10 times higher than the global average; (3) the seasonal fluctuation of sea level was obvious in areas of the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean with north latitude 30-40 degree. When the season of the highest sea level was compared with the term of the typhoon and hurricane occurring annually, it could be found that there were global dangerous seacoasts, which were vulnerable by sea level rise, located in the regions of the Northwest Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean with north latitude 20-50 degree during the seasons of Typhoon in August and October. The region includes coast areas as Chinese Mainland East Seacoast, Japanese Seacoast, American East Seacoast, Mexico Bay Seacoast and Caribbean Seacoast.

Key words: Sea level change, Seacoast, Mass balance of glacier and polar ice sheets, Coastal city safety.

中图分类号:

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The New Progresses on Global Sea Level Change