中国东海海平面变化多尺度周期分析与预测

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.06.0678

地球科学进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (6): 678 -684. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2011.06.0678

全球变化研究上一篇

中国东海海平面变化多尺度周期分析与预测

王国栋 ¹, 康建成 ^1*, Han Guoqi ², 刘超 ¹, 闫国东 ¹

1.上海师范大学城市生态与环境研究中心,上海200234；
2.Fisheries and Oceans Department, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Newfoundland, Canada

收稿日期:2010-11-03 修回日期:2011-03-22 出版日期:2011-06-10
通讯作者: 康建成 (1957-)，男，甘肃武山人，教授，主要从事全球气候环境演化过程及其影响研究. E-mail:kangjc@126.com
基金资助:
上海市教委重点学科建设项目“地理学与城市环境”（编号：J50402）资助.

Analysis and Prediction of Sea-Level-Change Multi-Scale -Cycle for East China Sea

Wang Guodong ¹, Kang Jiancheng ¹, Han Guoqi ², Liu Chao ¹, Yan Guodong ¹

1. Urban Ecology and Environmental Research Center, Shanghai Normal University, Shanghai200234, China;
2.Fisheries and Oceans Department, Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Centre, Newfoundland, Canada

Received:2010-11-03 Revised:2011-03-22 Online:2011-06-10 Published:2011-06-10

下载PDF ( 831 )

海平面变化规律尤其是对海平面变化周期和上升趋势的研究，已成为国内外科学界研究的热点问题。使用1992—2009年海平面卫星测高仪数据资料，运用小波变换方法对中国东海海平面变化的周平均数据信号进行多尺度周期分析，并通过Winters指数平滑法对未来海平面变化进行预测，结果显示：① 1992—2009年东海海平面呈现波动上升的趋势，年平均上升幅度约为0.39 cm/a；并呈现出2~3个月、12个月（1 a）、24个月（2 a）、36个月（3 a）、48个月（4 a）、55个月（4.6 a）等多尺度周期特征；② 海平面变化去噪数据信号表现出比原始信号更加明显的波动上升趋势，相对应的每年海平面峰值（每年夏秋季节），海平面上升趋势更明显，上升幅度约为0.78 cm/a，为年平均海平面增幅的2倍；③ 2006年后，中国东海未来海平面将保持波动上升的趋势，年平均上升幅度为0.49 cm/a，预计到2015年，海平面将比2006年上升4~5 cm；到2030年，海平面将比2006年上升14~15 cm。

关键词: 中国东海, 海平面变化, 小波变换, winters指数平滑

Research of sea level change has become the hot issue in the world, especially in the variability cycle and upward trend of sea level. In this paper, wavelet transform was applied in the sea-level change multi-scale cycle analysis of monthly average data signal in East China Sea, and future sea-level change was predicted by the way of winters exponential smoothing. The results show: ① Sea level showed upward trend in volatility in East China between 1992 to 2009, the annual average growth rate was up to about 0.39 cm/a; it had multi-scale cycle feature as follows: 2 to 3 months, 12 months (1a), 24 months (2a), 36 months (3 a), 48 months (4a), 55 months (4.6a). ② Sea level data denoising signal showed upward trend more obvious than the original signal. Compared to annual maximum of sea level height (in annual summer and autumn), sea level rise was more evident, and the average growth rate is up to about 0.78cm/a, and it was 2 times of the average annual growth rate. ③ Future sea level changes (after 2006) will maintain an upward trend with fluctuations in East China Sea. Annual average growth rate will be about 0.49 cm/a. By 2015, sea level rise rate will be about 4 cm to 5 cm higher than 2006; The rate of sea level rise will increase to about 14 cm to 15 cm by the year 2030 on the basis of the year 2006.

Key words: East China Sea, Sea Level Change, Wavelet transform, , Winters exponential smoothing

中图分类号:

P722.6
P76

[1]IPCC. Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R]. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[2]James P M，Syvitski A J K, Irina Overeem,et al.Sinking deltas due to human activities[J].Nature Geoscience,2009, 2: 681-686.
[3]State Oceanic Administration, Bulletin of Sealevel in China Sea 2009[EB/OL]. http:∥www.coi.gov.cn/hygb/hpm/2009.html,2010.[国家海洋局.2009中国海平面公报[EB/OL]. http:∥www.coi.gov.cn/hygb/hpm/2009.html,2010.]
[4]Shi Yafeng, Zhu Jinwen, Xie Zhiren, et al. Prediction and prevention of the impacts of sea level rise on the Yangtze River Delta and its adjacent areas
[J].Science in China(Series D), 2000, 43(4):412-422.
[5]Wu Tao, Kang Jiancheng, Wang Fang,et al. The new progresses on global sea level change[J].Advances in Earth Science,2006,21(7):730-737.[吴涛, 康建成,王芳,等.全球海平面变化研究新进展[J]. 地球科学进展,2006,21(7):730-737.]
[6]Wen Jiahong. International study on antarctic ice sheet and sea level change:A review[J]. Advances in Earth Science,2010,15(5):586-591.[温家洪.国际南极冰盖与海平面变化研究述评[J]. 地球科学进展,2010,15(5):586-591.]
[7]Cheng X, Qi Y. Trends of sea level variabilitys in the South China Sea from Merged Altimetry data[J].Global and Planetary Change,2007,(57): 371-382.
[8]White N J, Church J A, Gregory J M. Coastal and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2005, 32(1): L01601.
[9]Li Yongping, Qin Zenghao, Duan Yihong. An estimation and assessment of future sea level rise in Shanghai region[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1998, 53(5): 393-403.[李永平, 秦曾灏, 端义宏. 上海地区海平面上升趋势的预测和研究[J]. 地理学报, 1998, 53(5):393-403.]
[10]Cazenave A N R. Presentday sealevel change observations and causes[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2004, 42: RG3001.
[11]Xu Shanshan, Zuo Juncheng, Chen Meixiang. North Pacific Sea level change and its impact factors during 1993-2006[J].Periodical of Ocean University of China,2010,40(9): 24-32.[徐珊珊 ,左军成, 陈美香. 1993—2006年北太平洋海平面变化特征及影响因素[J].中国海洋大学学报, 2010,40(9): 24-32.]
[12]Cazenave A, Wang Xiuling. Global sealevel change assessment from 2003 to 2008[J].Marine Geology Letters,2009,25(11):30-31.[Cazenave A,王秀玲. 2003—2008年全球海平面变化评估[J]. 海洋地质动态,2009,25(11):30-31.]
[13]Yu Zhaoyuan, Yuan Linwang, Xie Zhiren, et al. Prediction experiment of sealevel change based on the SSA and AR model[J].Transactions of Oceanology and Limnology,2007,(4):14-20.[俞肇元, 袁林旺, 谢志仁,等. 基于SSA和AR模型的海面变化预测试验[J]. 海洋湖沼通报, 2007，(4):14-20.]
[14]Han G, Huang W. Pacific decadal oscillation and sea level variability in the Bohai, Yellow and East China Seas[J].Journal of Physical Oceanography,2008,38:2 772-2 783.
[15]Han G,Huang W. Lowfrequency sea level variability in the South China Sea and its relationship with ENSO[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2009,97:41-52.
[16]Zhan Jingang,Wang Yong, Liu Lintao. Time-frequency analysis of the inter-seasonal variations of China-Neighboring Seas level[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2003,46(1):36-41.[詹金刚, 王勇, 柳林涛. 中国近海海平面季节尺度变化的时频分析[J]. 地球物理学报, 2003, 46(1): 36-41.]
[17]Zhan Jingang,Wang Yong, Xu Houze, et al. The wavelet analysis of sea level change in China Sea during 1992-2006[J].Acta Geodaetica et Cartographica Sinica,2008, 37(4): 438-443. [詹金刚, 王勇, 许厚泽, 等. 我国近海1992—2006年海平面变化的小波分析[J]. 测绘学报, 2008, 37(4): 438-443.]
[18]Xiao Zhigang, Wang Liang, Tian Lifang. Application research of wavelet analysis in GIS [J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2005, 30(1):57-59.
[肖志刚, 王亮, 田丽芳. 小波分析在空间数据处理中的应用研究[J].测绘科学, 2005, 30 (1):57-59.]
[19]Feisi Technology R&D Center. Wavelet Analysis and Application of Auxiliary in Matlab6.5[M]. Beijing: Electronic Industry Press,2003. [飞思科技产品研发中心. Matlab 6.5辅助小波分析与应用[M]. 北京：电子工业出版社，2003.]
[20]Ju Tongjun, Shi Hui, Hu Qing. Wavelet analysis of precipitation variation and trend in nearly 50 years in Yan’an[J]. Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2008, 26(4): 416-418.[琚彤军, 石辉, 胡庆. 延安市近50年来降水特征及趋势变化的小波分析研究[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2008, 26(4): 416-418.]
[21]Liu Luoman. Application of exponential smoothing in time series analysis [J]. Journal of Shenyang Normal University(Natural Science),2009, 27(4): 230-235.[刘罗曼. 时间序列分析中指数平滑法的应用[J]. 沈阳师范大学学报:自然科学版, 2009, 27(4): 230-235.]
[22]Gao Junxing, Zhang Daiqing. Study on periodic variation characteristics of the amount of regional water resources by wavelet analysis [J].Journal of Water Resources & Water Enginerring,2009, 20(6): 5-8.[高军省, 张代青. 基于小波分析的区域水资源总量变化的周期特性研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2009, 20(6): 5-8.]
[23]Qiao Xin, Chen Ge. A preliminary analysis on the China Sea level using 11 years’ TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data[J].Marine Science,2008, 32(1): 60-64.[乔新, 陈戈. 基于11年高度计数据的中国海海平面变化初步研究[J]. 海洋科学, 2008, 32(1): 60-64.]
[24]Wang Zhengtao, Li Jiancheng, Chao Dingbo,et al.Correlativity study between El Niño phenomenon and mean sea level abormal variations in equator pacific area using multi-satellite altimetric data [J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2004, 29(8): 700-703.[王正涛, 李建成,晁定波,等.利用卫星测高数据研究海面高月异常变化与厄尔尼诺现象的相关性[J]. 武汉大学学报:信息科学版, 2004, 29(8): 700-703.]
[25]Liu Xueyuan, Liu Yuguang, Guo Lin, et al. Mean sea level change in East China Sea and its response to ENSO[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2009,28(5):34-42.[刘雪源,刘玉光,郭琳,等.渤黄海海平面的变化及其与ENSO的关系[J].海洋通报,2009,28(5):34-42.]

[1]	效存德,陈卓奇,江利明,丁明虎,窦挺峰. 格陵兰冰盖监测、模拟及气候影响研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(8): 781-786.
[2]	翁成郁. 巽他区域地质气候环境演变与陆地生物多样性形成与变化[J]. 地球科学进展, 2017, 32(11): 1163-1173.
[3]	李悦, 王汝建, 李文宝. 利用有孔虫氧同位素重建古海平面变化的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(3): 310-319.
[4]	祁晓凡，杨丽芝，韩晔，尚浩，邢立亭. 济南泉域地下水位动态及其对降水响应的交叉小波分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(9): 969-978.
[5]	罗坚,姜勇强,戴彩悌. 提升小波变换在气象格点数据无损压缩中的应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(4): 460-465.
[6]	贺子丁，刘志飞，李建如，谢昕. 南海西部54万年以来元素地球化学记录及其反映的古环境演变[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(3): 327-336.
[7]	吴兆福，高飞，陶庭叶. 小波变换后的噪声信息在大坝变形监测精度评定中的应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2008, 23(6): 590-594.
[8]	吴涛,康建成,王芳,郑琰明. 全球海平面变化研究新进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(7): 730-737.
[9]	吴兆福;高飞;宫鹏. 基于边缘特征的遥感影像小波变换融合法[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(7): 705-709.
[10]	钟广法. 海平面变化的原因及结果[J]. 地球科学进展, 2003, 18(5): 706-712.
[11]	陈仁升,康尔泗,张济世. 小波变换在河西地区水文和气候周期变化分析中的应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2001, 16(3): 339-345.
[12]	李增学,魏久传,韩美莲. 海侵事件成煤作用——一种新的聚煤模式[J]. 地球科学进展, 2001, 16(1): 120-124.
[13]	李荣西,魏家庸,杨卫东,郭庆军. 用 ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr研究海平面变化与全球对比问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 2000, 15(6): 729-733.
[14]	许厚泽,蒋福珍,张赤军. 我国动力大地测量学的进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2000, 15(2): 127-133.
[15]	李祥辉,包向农. 海平面变化成因及其盆地响应[J]. 地球科学进展, 2000, 15(1): 71-75.

阅读次数

全文

摘要