地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2018, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (12): 1248 -1258. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.12.1248

研究论文 上一篇    下一篇

基于Budyko理论分析珠江流域中上游地区气候与植被变化对径流的影响 *
李天生( ), 夏军 *( )   
  1. 1.武汉大学 水资源与水电工程国家重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430072
    2.武汉大学 水安全研究院,湖北 武汉 430072
  • 收稿日期:2018-06-24 出版日期:2018-12-10
  • 通讯作者: 夏军 E-mail:2012301580244@whu.edu.cn;xiajun666@whu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    *国家自然科学基金项目“中小河流及无测站流域径流形成非线性机理及其模型的应用基础研究”(编号:41571028)资助.

Analysis of the Influence of Climate and Vegetation Change on Runoff in the Middle and Upper Reaches of the Pearl River Basin Based on Budyko Hypothesis *

Tiansheng Li( ), Jun Xia *( )   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072,China
    2.The Research Institute for Water Security,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China
  • Received:2018-06-24 Online:2018-12-10 Published:2019-01-18
  • Contact: Jun Xia E-mail:2012301580244@whu.edu.cn;xiajun666@whu.edu.cn
  • About author:

    First author:Li Tiansheng(1994-),male,Baiyin City,Gansu Province,Ph.D student. Research areas include water resource and hydrology. E-mail:2012301580244@whu.edu.cn

  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China "Study on the nonlinear mechanism of runoff formation in medium and small watersheds and non-station basins and the application of models" (No. 41571028).
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径流作为水文循环的关键环节,在人类活动影响较小的地区受气候因素控制的同时,也受植被等陆面要素的影响。以珠江流域中上游地区为研究区域,基于Budyko理论具体分析了气候和植被变化对该区域径流的影响。首先应用TFPW-MK方法分析了1981—2013年研究区各要素的变化趋势;其次通过逐步回归拟合参数n,改进了Budyko理论框架下的傅抱璞公式,并基于改进的蒸散发模型模拟计算了区域蒸散发和径流;最后基于敏感性分析方法,分析了区域径流对气象要素和植被要素的敏感性。结果显示:1981—2013年珠江中上游地区平均温度(T)、最高温度(Tmax)和最低温度(Tmin)都存在上升趋势,而径流(Q)、降雨(P)、风速(u2)、相对湿度(RH)呈下降趋势。傅抱璞实际蒸散发计算公式中参数n同时受气候要素P、T、RH、日照时数(S)、u2和植被覆盖指数(NDVI)的制约。敏感性分析结果显示,流域径流对降雨和NDVI具有较高的敏感性,且流域降雨减少是径流减少的主导因素,而NDVI在研究时段没有显著的变化趋势,其对径流减少的贡献不显著。总体而言,气候变化对研究区域径流的影响主要是通过同时改变水文输入要素(降雨、潜在蒸散发)和表针流域特性的参数n来表现,而植被对研究区域径流的影响主要是通过改变表针流域特性的参数n来表现。

关键词: 径流, 气候与植被变化, 水量平衡, Budyko理论, 珠江中上游

Runoff, which is a key component in the hydrological cycle, is mainly controlled by climate factors and land-surface elements in non-humid regions. The impacts of climate and vegetation changes on runoff based on Budyko hypothesis in the middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin was analyzed in this article. First, the temporal trend of variables in the study area during 1981-2013 was examined by using the Mann-Kendall trend test with trend-free pre-whitening. Second, the relationship of the parameter n in Fu's equation with factors of climate and vegetation coverage was built to reveal the time-variation process of n. Finally, the effects of climatic factors and vegetation coverage on runoff were assessed by analyzing the sensitivity of runoff to each variable. It is found that average temperature (T), maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) in the study area present an increasing trend while runoff (Q), precipitation (P), wind speed (u2) and relative humid (RH) present decreasing trend. The parameter n in Fu's equation is significantly related to both climatic factors (including precipitation (P), average temperature (T), relative humid (RH), sunshine duration (S), wind speed (u2)) and vegetation coverage index (NDVI). In terms of sensitivity of Runoff (Q) to the variation of each climatic factors and NDVI in the middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin, precipitation (P) and NDVI have the highest sensitivity, followed by other climatic factors. Additionally, the precipitation (P) reduction is the main driving factor to the decline in runoff, while vegetation coverage is another important factor. In general, climate change affects runoff not only by changing the hydrological inputs (precipitation (P) and potential evaporation (PET) but also by altering the watershed characteristics as represented by the parameter n, while the impacts of vegetation coverage on runoff are exerted mainly through the alteration of the watershed characteristics.

Key words: Runoff, The change of climate and vegetation, Water balance, Budyko theory, Middle and upper reaches of Pearl River.

中图分类号: 

图1 珠江流域中上游地区示意图
Fig.1 The map of middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin
表1 研究区域各要素趋势检验结果统计
Table 1 Results of trend analysis of the climate factors and NDVI in middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin
要素 ZMK 变化趋势
Q -2.51* 下降
P -1.97* 下降
T 2.63* 上升
Tmax 3.53* 上升
Tmin 2.18* 上升
S -0.89 下降
u2 -2.99* 下降
RH -3.1* 下降
NDVI 0.74 上升
图2 珠江中上游地区气象和植被要素变化趋势示意图
(a)径流量( Q),(b)降水量( P),(c)平均温度( T),(d)最高温度( T max),(e)最低温度( T min),(f)相对湿度( RH),(g)风速( u 2),(h)日照时数( S),(i)植被覆盖指数( NDVI)
Fig.2 Changes in climatic variables and NDVI in middle and upper reaches of the Pearl River Basin
(a)Runoff( Q),(b)Precipitation( P),(c)Average temperature( T),(d)Maximum temperature( T max),(e)Minimum temperature( T min),(f)Relative Humid( RH),(g)Wind speed( u 2),(h)Sunshine duration ( S),(i)Normalized Difference Vegetation Index( NDVI)
表2 研究区域参数 nt逐步拟合分析结果
Table 2 Stepwise regression results of parameter nt in study catchment
变量 步数 R2 R2 增量
NDVIt 1 0.2
St 2 0.7 0.5
Tt 3 0.77 0.07
Pt 4 0.8 0.03
RHt 5 0.82 0.02
u2t 6 0.84 0.02
图3 参数标准值 nt与模拟值 nt 0比较
Fig.3 Comparison between nt and nt 0
图4 应用拟合参数 nt 0估算 AETt与 Qt的精度验证
(a)模拟 AETt 0与实际 AETt比较;( b)模拟 Qt 0与观测 Qt比较
Fig.4 Accuracy verification of AETt and Qt by fitting parameter nt 0
 (a) Comparison between AETt 0 and AETt; (b) Comparison between Qt 0 and Qt
图5 Qt对各个要素的敏感性系数
Fig.5 The sensitivity coefficient of runoff to the variables
图6 Pt、 T maxt和 u 2 t变化对 Qt 0变化的影响
(a)、(b)、(c)分别为 Pt、 T maxt、 u 2 t的原始序列和去趋势序列的对比图;(d)为降雨去趋势下径流序列 Q t 0 P t 、最高温度去趋势下的径流序列 Q t 0 T maxt ,风速去趋势下径流序列 Q t 0 u 2 t 与原始径流序列 Qt 0的对比图
Fig.6 Influence of changes in Pt, T maxt and u 2 t on Qt 0 changes
(a)、(b)、(c) show the comparison of the original series with detrended series of Pt、 T maxt、 u 2 t, respectively; (d) shows the comparison of the original runoff with the recalculated runoff. The original runoff denoted as Qt 0, the runoff recalculated by detrended series of Pt、 T maxt、 u 2 t denoted as Q t 0 P t , Q t 0 Tmaxt and Q t 0 u 2 t , respectively
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