中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示
  <sup>*</sup>

doi:1001-8166(2014)01-0023-07

气候变化的社会影响是当前全球变暖影响研究的一个重要领域。以古鉴今, 历史上应对气候变化的经验和教训可以为现代人类应对以全球变暖为突出标志的气候变化挑战提供宝贵的借鉴。总结中国历史气候变化对社会影响研究领域的成果, 归纳得到了历史时期气候变化对中国社会发展影响的若干认识及其对适应未来气候变化的启示。主要结论是：历史气候变化影响的总体特征是“冷抑暖扬”, 但影响与响应存在区域差异；社会经济的衰落与百年尺度的气候由暖转冷呈现同期性, 与暖期相伴的社会快速发展会增加社会对资源、环境需求的压力, 导致社会脆弱性加大；历史上应对气候变化策略因时、因地、因主体而异；而以政府为主导的主动因地制宜适应是应对气候变化的有效策略。

关键词: 历史时期, 气候变化影响, 中国

The social impact of global climate change is one of the hotspots in the current research. To deal with the challenges from climate change, it could be learned from the adapting experiences and lessons to climate change in the history. The main achievements of cognition on the historical impacts of climatic change in China and on coping with the climate changes in the future based the published papers in recent years is summarized. The followings are the main conclusions. ①The general characteristics of the impacts of climatic change in the history was negative in the cold periods and positive in the warm periods, but there were regional differences in the impact and responses. ②The cooling trend on centurial scale and the socialeconomic decline run concurrently. The rapid development supported by better resources and environment in the warm period could lead to the increase of the social vulnerability when the climate turned to the cold period. ③Strategies and policies to cope with the climate change in the history were adopted according to the temporal and spatial circumstances and the subjects. Initiative adaptation promoted by governments was an effective way.

Key words: Historical period, The impacts of climatic change, China

中图分类号:

P467

图1 秦汉以来中国气候变化及其影响 ^{[

16
]} A.秦汉以来全国每30年发生战争的次数（资料源自文献[22]）；B.秦汉以来黄河中下游地区米价指数曲线（每个朝代分别标准化, 30年分辨率。清朝以前由著者重建, 清朝（覆盖范围为全国）引自文献[23]）；C.秦汉以来农牧交错带西段（呼和浩特至潼关一线以西）北界的变化（秦汉、魏晋南北朝、隋唐和明朝系著者重建, 其中450s至530s引自文献[24], 宋、元和清朝引自文献[25]）；D.秦汉以来东中部地区（105°E以东, 25°～40°N）冬半年温度变化（分辨率为30年, 柱图代表相对于1951—1980年冬温均值的正、负距平值, 点线为60年滤波结果, 本曲线在文献[26, 27]基础上进行了修订；E.东汉以来东中部地区（105°E以东, 25°～40°N）每50年发生重大旱涝事件的年数（曲线分别为旱涝灾害（E）、重大旱灾（E1）和重大涝灾（E2）百年滑动平均历史时期气候变化影响“冷抑暖扬”的总体特征有助于人们更全面地认识全球变暖对我国的影响。20世纪暖期是过去2 000年中百年尺度的暖期之一^{[

35
]}, 虽然现代中国已进入工业化阶段, 社会经济状况与以农立国的历史时期有显著不同, 但历史上暖期影响的某些方面对现代仍有借鉴意义, 历史上暖期对社会发展有促进影响的基本事实可以帮助我们在了解气候增暖的负面影响时, 也要同时深入了解气候增暖的正面作用, 从而更有针对性的适应气候增暖。

Fig.1 Impacts of climate change in China since the Qin Dynasty ^{[

16
]} A.The number of the war per 30 years since the Qin Dynasty( the data is from reference[22]); B. The rice price index in the middle and lower basins of the Yellow River since the Qin Dynasty(30 years resolution. The index in the Qing Dynasty is nationwide, from reference[23]); C. Changes of the north boundary of farmingpastoral zone(west to Hohhot-Tongguan) (the boundary in 450s～530s is from reference[24]; the boundaries in the dynasties of Song, Yuan and Qing are from reference[25]); D.Winter half year temperature change in easterncentral China (east of 105°E, 25°～ 40°N ) revised on the basis of references[26, 27] (30 years resolution, the bars represent positive or negative anomaly relative to the average temperature in winter in 1951-1980, dotted line is filtering result for 60 years); E. The years of severe drought and flood per 50 years in easterncentral China (east of 105°E, 25°～40°N) since the Eastern Han Dynasty(The lines are 100 years moving means for total(E), droughts (E1) and floods (E2), respectively)

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