地球科学进展

地球科学进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (2): 165 -176. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2022.010

青促会之地球科学领域 上一篇    下一篇

非线性最优扰动方法在热带气旋目标观测研究和外场试验中的应用
段晚锁 1 , 2( ), 秦晓昊 1( )   
  1. 1.中国科学院大气物理研究所 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室，北京 100029
    2.中国科学院大学海洋学院，北京 101408
  • 收稿日期:2021-12-22 修回日期:2022-01-19 出版日期:2022-02-10
  • 通讯作者: 秦晓昊 E-mail:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn;xhqin@lasg.iap.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目“台风目标观测研究”(2018YFC1506402);国家自然科学基金项目“非线性强迫奇异向量—集合预报方法及其在厄尔尼诺和台风可预报性研究中的应用”(41930971)

Application of Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Methods in the Targeting Observations and Field Campaigns of Tropical Cyclones

Wansuo DUAN 1 , 2( ), Xiaohao QIN 1( )   

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics，Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100029，China
    2.College of Marine Science，University of Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 101408，China
  • Received:2021-12-22 Revised:2022-01-19 Online:2022-02-10 Published:2022-03-08
  • Contact: Xiaohao QIN E-mail:duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn;xhqin@lasg.iap.ac.cn
  • About author:DUAN Wansuo
    DUAN Wansuo （1973-）, Yangcheng County, Shanxi Province, Professor. Research areas include air-sea interaction, as well as the predictability, targeting observation, data assimilation and ensemble forecasts of high-impact weather and climate events. E-mail: duanws@lasg.iap.ac.cn
    QIN Xiaohao. Application of nonlinear optimal perturbation methods in the targeting observations and field campaigns of tropical cyclones［J］.
  • Supported by:
    the National Key Research and Development Program "Targeting observation research on typhoons"(2018YFC1506402);The National Natural Science Foundation of China "The nonlinear forcing singular vector-ensemble forecast method and its application in the predictability study in El Ni?o and tropical cyclone"(41930971)
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综述了我国学者近年来用非线性最优扰动方法探索热带气旋目标观测及其外场试验的主要进展，具体包括：从提高数值模式初始场精度的角度，用条件非线性最优扰动方法确定了热带气旋路径和强度预报的目标观测敏感区，并成功应用于“风云四号”气象卫星和下投探空仪台风目标观测外场试验，助力业务部门获得了宝贵资料。从减小模式误差或外强迫不确定性的角度，将非线性强迫奇异向量方法应用于探讨热带气旋强度预报的敏感性，揭示了模式误差的敏感气象要素和敏感区，以及海表温度强迫的敏感区；用集合扰动的思路识别了热带气旋快速增强过程预报的行星边界层的模式误差敏感区。讨论了目前热带气旋目标观测研究存在的问题以及可能的解决方法，展望了未来热带气旋目标观测研究应努力的前沿方向，及其在实际预报中的应用前景。

关键词: 热带气旋, 目标观测, 非线性最优扰动, 资料同化, 集合预报

The authors review the major progresses in the targeting observations and field campaigns for Tropical Cyclones （TCs） using their proposed nonlinear optimal perturbation methods. They used condition nonlinear optimal perturbation， which aims at reducing the initial errors for numerical models， to identify the sensitive regions for TC track and intensity forecasts. This guides both FY-4 satellite and dropsonde in the field campaigns to effectively collect valuable observation data. Furthermore， they investigated the sensitivity of TC intensity forecast to model errors using nonlinear forcing singular vector， which indicates both the sensitive regions and variables in troposphere and the sensitive regions of sea surface temperature. Simultaneously， they also identified the sensitive regions and variables in the boundary layer during a rapid intensification process of a TC using ensemble perturbation method. In final the unresolved problems， possible solutions， and future recommendations in the targeting observations for TCs are discussed.

Key words: Tropical cyclones, Targeting observations, Nonlinear optimal perturbation, Ensemble forecast, Data assimilation

中图分类号: 

图1 用CNOP方法计算的热带气旋（a）海高斯、（b）浪卡、（c）沙德尔和（d）艾莎尼的目标观测敏感区（填色区域）［ 17 ］
红色和黑色线分别为观测（BEST）和预报（CTRL）的热带气旋移动路径，蓝色点代表下投探空仪的投放位置（DROP）
Fig. 1 Sensitive regions （shaded） identified by CNOP for TC cases （a） Higos， （b） Nangka， （c） Saudel， and （d） Atsani［ 17 ］
Red and black lines respectively denote the tracks in observation （BEST） and control forecast （CTRL）， blue dots denote the dropping sites of dropsondes（DROP） ［ 17 ］
图2 9个热带气旋个例强度（最低海平面中心气压：MSLP）的观测（红线）、控制预报（黑线）以及敏感模式误差被矫正后的预报（蓝线）［ 30 ］
校正后的预报更大程度逼近观测，表明了NFSV方法识别的模式误差敏感性的合理性
Fig. 2 The Minimum Sea Level Pressure （MSLP） in best-track data （red）， CTRL （black）， and with the correction item （blue） for nine Tropical cyslones［ 30 ］
The simulated MSLPs after correction are closer to the best-track data， indicating the reasonability of the model error sensitivity identified by the NFSV
图3 12个热带气旋个例强度预报的NFSV型SST强迫误差（单位：K；填色区域）的空间分布［ 31 ］
主要误差沿着热带气旋移动路径（彩色粗线代表路径）分布，主要位于热带气旋的快速增强阶段的区域，该区域和时段代表了热带气旋强度预报的目标观测敏感区和最优观测时段
Fig. 3 Patterns NFSV-type SST forcing errors （shaded； unit： K） for 12 TC cases［ 31 ］
NFSV-type SST forcing errors often locate along the TC tracks （color dots） but concentrate in a particular region which tends to occur during the intensification phase of TCs. These region and period represent the optimal region and period for targeting observation associated with TC intensity forecasts
图4 热带气旋杜鹃（201521）集合模拟的强度误差和离散度的时间演变
Exp-RT、-GL和-IC分别代表热带气旋边缘区、大风区和内核区边界层方案（YSU）扰动试验；Exp-UV、-T和-Q，以及Exp-TQ、-UVQ和-UVT分别表示大风区YSU水平风场、位温、水汽混合比，以及它们的两两组合的扰动试验。离散度越大，表明热带气旋强度模拟对扰动越敏感
Fig. 4 Time series of intensity errors and spread for the tropical cyclone case Dujuan （201521）
Exp-RT， -GL， and -IC respectively denote the experiments with the perturbations superimposed on the YSU over the outer， gale， and inner-core area of the tropical cyclone. The Exp-UV， -T， -Q， as well as -TQ， -UVQ， and -UVT， respectively represent the experiments with perturbations superimposed on YSU over the gale area of the tropical cyclone for horizontal wind， potential temperature， water vapor mixing ration and the combinations of any two among them. The larger the spread， the more sensitive of the simulated intensity to the perturbations is
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