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地球科学进展  2016, Vol. 31 Issue (11): 1172-1181    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.11.1172
研究论文     
宁夏近53年冬季气温变化趋势及对农业的影响
董国庆1, 2, 李丽平1*, *, 郑广芬3
1.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏 南京 210044;
2.宁夏石嘴山市惠农区气象局,宁夏 石嘴山 753200;
3.宁夏气候中心,宁夏 银川 750002
Changing Trends of Winter Temperature in Recent 53 Years in Ningxia and Impact for Agriculture
Dong Guoqing1, 2, Li Liping1, *, Zheng Guangfen3
1.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;
2.Huinong Meteorological Station, Shizuishan 753200,China;
3.Ningxia Climate Center,Yinchuan 750002,China
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摘要: 根据宁夏20个地面气象观测站1961年来冬季(12月至次年2月)逐日气温资料, 采用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检验等方法,分析了宁夏全区、引黄灌区、中部干旱带和南部山区冬季平均、最高、最低气温年际、年代际变化趋势及突变特征;对比分析了21世纪以来冬季最冷月平均气温、<0 ℃负积温变化的新特点及对农业的影响。结果表明:①宁夏全区及各地冬季平均气温2000年以前上升趋势显著,其中引黄灌区冬季增暖最明显,中部干旱带次之,南部山区增暖幅度最小,1985年为宁夏大部分地区冬季平均气温升高的突变点。21世纪以来宁夏大部分地区冬季平均气温上升趋势趋缓,中部干旱带甚至出现下降。②宁夏各地冬季平均最低气温的上升幅度明显高于冬季平均气温和冬季平均最高气温,说明宁夏各地冬季气温升高的原因主要是冬季最低气温升高;进入21世纪以来,冬季平均最高气温变化幅度较冬季平均气温剧烈,大部分地区出现下降;冬季平均最低气温除中部干旱带2002年后略微下降之外,大部分地区持续上升。③冬季最冷月平均气温升高,<0 ℃负积温绝对值大幅降低,有利于越冬作物种植区北界北移,种植面积扩大,遭遇冻害的风险降低,也易使农作物病虫害增加。
关键词: 线性趋势突变分析气温负积温    
Abstract: Based on winter (December to February) daily temperature data of 20 meteorological stations in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region since 1961, the interannual and interdecadal change trend and the mutation characteristics of the winter average, the maximum, and the minimum temperature of the whole Ningxia region, the Yellow River irrigation area, the central arid zone and the southern mountainous area were analyzed using linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and other methods; Meanwhile,the new characteristics of average temperature of the coldest month, <0 ℃ negative accumulated temperature in winter of the 21st century and impact on agriculture were comparatively analyzed. The results showed that: Firstly, in the whole region and different areas of Ningxia, winter average temperature rose significantly before 2000, the Yellow River irrigation area was the most obvious in winter warming than that in the central arid zone and the southern mountainous area. 1985 was the abrupt change point of winter average temperatures in most areas of Ningxia. In the early 21st century the winter average temperature rose slowly in most areas of Ningxia, even falling in the central arid zone. Secondly, the rise of average minimum temperature was significantly higher than average temperature and average maximum temperature in the winter, indicating that the rise of winter temperature in Ningxia was mainly due to winter minimum temperature. Since the 21st century, the average maximum temperature had changed more dramatically than the average temperature in the winter, dropping in most areas. Winter average minimum temperature in addition to the central arid zone declined slightly after 2002, and continued to rise in most areas of Ningxia.Thirdly, both rise of the average temperature of the coldest month and dramatic reduction of the absolute value of negative accumulated temperature is not only beneficial to the northern planting boundary of winter crops spreading further to north and planting areas expanding with a lower risk of freezing injury, but also beneficial to crop pests increase.
Key words: Temperature    Mutation analysis    Negative accumulated temperature.    Linear trend
收稿日期: 2016-08-08 出版日期: 2016-11-20
:  P467  
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金重点项目“海洋性大陆区域气候变动及其对亚奥季风环流和中国气候异常影响的机理研究”(编号:41330425); 宁夏自然科学基金项目“宁夏绿色建筑气候资源精细化评估”(编号:NZ13254)资助
通讯作者: 李丽平(1971-),女,山西寿阳人,教授,主要从事短期气候预测研究.E-mail:li.liping@163.com   
作者简介: 董国庆(1978-),女,宁夏固原人,工程师,主要从事气象服务及气候变化研究.E-mail:dongguoqing2003@163.com
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引用本文:

董国庆, 李丽平, 郑广芬. 宁夏近53年冬季气温变化趋势及对农业的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(11): 1172-1181.

Dong Guoqing, Li Liping, Zheng Guangfen. Changing Trends of Winter Temperature in Recent 53 Years in Ningxia and Impact for Agriculture. Advances in Earth Science, 2016, 31(11): 1172-1181.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.11.1172        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2016/V31/I11/1172

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