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地球科学进展  2012, Vol. 27 Issue (3): 337-346    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.03.0337
研究论文     
近50年中国北方不同地区降水周期趋势的比较分析
刘扬1,2,韦志刚1,3
1.中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000;2. 中国科学院研究生院,北京100049;
3.北京师范大学全球变化与地球系统科学研究院,北京100875
Comparison of the Precipitation Cycle and Trend in Different Areas of Northern China in Recent 50 years
Liu Yang1,2, Wei Zhigang1,3
1.Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions,Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou730000, China;
2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing100049, China;
3.College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing100875, China
 全文: PDF(2467 KB)  
摘要:

对中国北方243个站点1958—2009年逐月降水资料,采用小波分析和奇异谱分析(SSA)方法,在分4区基础上,对北方不同地区降水的周期和趋势进行分析,并进行比较。结果表明,西北地区(青海区、干旱区)降水的趋势性比北方中、东部区的明显。北方中、东部区在20世纪50年代末到60年代相对多雨,而青海区、干旱区在20世纪50年代末到70年代末或80年代中相对少雨。在20世纪80年代,北方中部区降水由偏多转为偏少,而其余3个区域(北方东部区、青海区、干旱区)的降水由偏少转为偏多,发生和持续时间各不相同。近几年,北方东部区、北方中部区、青海区的降水增加,而干旱区降水下降。北方东部区、中部区、干旱区存在10年以上的长周期,北方东部区为准22年,北方中部区为准15年,干旱区为准11年,这种长周期在20世纪80年代之后变得规则且稳定。北方降水普遍存在准2~3年周期和准5年周期,其振幅有明显的年际、年代际变化,具有一定的周期性。

关键词: 北方降水周期趋势小波分析奇异谱分析    
Abstract:

Based on division, precipitation cycle and trend in different areas of Northern China (NC) are analyzed and compared by using wavelet analysis and singular spectrum analysis based on the monthly precipitation data of 243 stations in the northern part of China during 1958-2009. The study results show that the precipitation in Northwest China (Qinghai Area and Arid Area) has stronger tendency than that in the Eastern NC and Middle NC. From the late 1950’s to 1960’s the precipitation in Eastern NC and Middle NC was on high side, while it was on low side in Qinghai and Arid Area at that time. During the 1980’s, the precipitation in Middle NC turned from high side to low side, while it turned reversely in the other three areas. The turning point and the lasting time were different in different areas. In recent several years, the precipitation has increased in Eastern NC, Middle NC and Qinghai area, and decreased in Arid Area. Except for Qinghai area, precipitation in Northern China has  longer period  than 10 years—22 a in Eastern NC, 15 a in Middle NC and 11 a in Arid Area—that has became stable and significant since the 1980’s. Northern China’s precipitation, in common, has a period of 2~3 a and 5 a. The oscillation amplitude has obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal variability, which is quasiperiodic. 

Key words: Precipitation in northern China    Period    Trend    Wavelet analysis    Singular spectrum analysis
收稿日期: 2011-10-13 出版日期: 2012-03-10
:  P332.1  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国北方春夏大气长波的变化及其对局地降水的影响”(编号:40875045);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“我国西北典型干旱半干旱区能量和水分循环观测试验与分析研究”(编号:2009CB421402)和“气候系统圈层相互作用过程及其对气候变化的影响与响应的模拟分析研究”(编号:2010CB950503)资助.

通讯作者: 刘扬(1988-),女,江苏泰州人,硕士研究生,主要从事陆气相互作用与气候变化研究.     E-mail: liuyang12@lzb.ac.cn
作者简介: 刘扬(1988-),女,江苏泰州人,硕士研究生,主要从事陆气相互作用与气候变化研究. E-mail:liuyang12@lzb.ac.cn
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引用本文:

刘扬,韦志刚. 近50年中国北方不同地区降水周期趋势的比较分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(3): 337-346.

Liu Yang, Wei Zhigang. Comparison of the Precipitation Cycle and Trend in Different Areas of Northern China in Recent 50 years. Advances in Earth Science, 2012, 27(3): 337-346.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2012.03.0337        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2012/V27/I3/337

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