近千年来中国区域降水模拟与重建资料的对比分析

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.02.0159

依据中国区域27年GPCP降水观测再分析资料、500年旱涝等级资料及近千年冰芯、树轮、湖芯等降水代用资料，对全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO-G近千年积分模拟降水进行时空变化的对比分析，检验模式对中国地区降水的模拟性能。结果表明模拟降水较好体现了中国区域降水年平均和季节平均的分布型态，并在年代际变化上与历史记录一致。中国西部模拟降水呈现出与重建资料一致的准200年的百年际周期及20～30年左右的年代际周期，并与湖泊盐度的高低时段对应较好。总体而言，模式成功再现了观测及代用资料所体现的中国区域近千年降水的主要时空变化特征。EOF分析结果进一步揭示了3个不同气候特征时期模拟降水存在不同的区域分异特点。

关键词: 近千年, 中国, 区域降水, 模拟与重建, 对比分析

With more and more effects of human activities on natural climate variability, the climate change has becomes more complex in the past 1 000 years, which is the key period for linking the proxy data and instrumental observation periods. Aimed to the scarcity of observation and uncertainty of reconstructed proxy data in this period, climate model is developed as a useful tool for studying paleoclimate. ECHO-G is one of such advanced climate models, but its performance in simulating the rainfall in China has not been examined. In this paper, the datasets of 27 years′ observed precipitation reanalysis data of GPCP in China，500 years′ classified drought and flood data，and proxy data like ice core, tree-ring, lake sediment during the past 1000 years are chosen to examine the performance of the atmosphere-ocean coupled model ECHO-G in simulating precipitation in China. The comparison between GPCP reanalysis and simulated precipitation in each season shows the model well reproduced the spatial distributions of precipitation in China; and the comparison with 500 years′ classified drought and flood data indicates the simulation is in good consistent with the precipitation classification in interdecadal time scale. It is prone to be flood when there is more simulated precipitation, and drought when there is less simulated precipitation. Furthermore, both the simulated and tree-ring reconstructed precipitation show there exit inter-centennial cycle of quasi-200 year and inter-decadal oscillation of 20~30 year, i.e. the simulation well reflects the inter-decadal and inter-centennial variations of precipitation. Compared with the lake sediment, the period with more simulate precipitation is corresponding to low lake salinity, vice versa.. In total, simulated results successfully reflect the main temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in China during the last millennium. Furthermore, the EOF analysis reveals there exit different regional differentiation characteristics in simulated precipitation of three different typical climate periods.

Key words: Last millennium, China, Simulated precipitation, Reconstructed data

中图分类号:

P426.61+4

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Comparison of Simulated and Reconstructed Precipitation in China during the Last Millennium