21世纪地震灾害的一些新特点

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.03.0359

地球科学进展 ›› 2004, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (3): 359 -363. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2004.03.0359

21世纪地震灾害的一些新特点

陈颙 ¹;彭文涛 ²;徐文立 ²

中国地震局，北京 100036；中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所，北京 100029

收稿日期:2004-04-09 修回日期:2004-04-22 出版日期:2004-12-20
通讯作者: 陈颙（1942-），男，江苏宿迁人，研究员，中国科学院院士，主要从事地震学和实验岩石物理学的研究. E-mail:E-mail：yongchen@seis.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“首都圈地区的活动构造、地质灾害和成灾机理的研究”（编号：40234038）资助

NEW FEATURE OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IN 21st CENTURY

CHEN Yong ¹， PENG Wentao ², XU Wenli ²

1.China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036,China；2.Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029,China

Received:2004-04-09 Revised:2004-04-22 Online:2004-12-20 Published:2004-06-01

下载PDF ( 1226 )

灾害定量化是地球科学、工程科学和社会经济科学的交叉领域。人口城市化是全球的发展趋势，特别在第三世界人口城市化的趋势越来越显著。和农村发生突发灾害农民可以很容易地进行自救和互救不同，城市居民对供水、供电、煤气、暖气、通讯和交通等基础设施有很大的依赖性，现代城市在抗御自然灾害方面，比过去任何时候都显得更加脆弱。通过统计，我们发现在灾害损失 L和表征社会财富的GDP之间存在着经验关系：L＝ a＋ b×GDP＋ c×GDP 2其中 a，b，c为正的常数。关系式表明，自然灾害造成的灾害增长要比GDP的增长要快。

关键词: 城市化, 易损性, 灾害损失

uantification of natural disaster is a new research area between the earth science, engineering science and the socio-economical science. The urbanization is an worldwide trend. This trend is especially pronounced in the countries of the Third World, where the number of cities over a million inhabitants has increases sixfold in the past 50 years. City people are more dependent on the infrastructure, i.e. the supply of water, electricity, gas, heating, telecommunications and transport connections than the more selfreliant rural population, which is more accustomed to helping one another in emergencies. Numerous natural catastrophes of recent years have shown quite emphatically how vulnerable the infrastructures of major cities are to minor breakdowns and how acute shortages in supply can develop within a short time. Our statistics showed that there is a empirical relation between the economic loss caused by natural hazards (in million US$) and the social wealth expressed by GDP²(in million US$) is:
Loss cause by natural hazards=a+b GDP+c GDP^2, where a, b and c are positive constants, it means that the losses increase faster than the increase of GDP. 

Key words: Urbanization, Disaster loss, Vulnerability.

中图分类号:

P315

[1]Wu Liangyong(吴良镛)，Wu Weijia(吴唯佳)，Wu Yanhai(武延海). A way to urbanization in Jiangsu Province seen from the main tendency to urbanization in the World［J］. Science & Technology Review(科技导报)，2003, 9: 3-6(in Chinese).
[2]Tao Xidong(陶希东)，Liu Junde(刘君德). A study on the conformity of spatial economy in the Changjiang River Delta metropolitan in the World［J］. Science & Technology Review(科技导报)， 2003, 9 :7-9(in Chinese)
[3]United Nations. World Demographic Estimates and Projections( 1950-2025)［M］. New York: Press of United Nations, 1990.
National Bureau of Statistics of China(国家统计局). China Daily［N］.1999-10-01(1).
[4]Research and development Geoscience Research Group. Topics 2000［J］. Munich: Special Issue, Munich Re Group, 2000. 42-52. 
[5]Committee on Status and Research Objectives in Solid-Earth Sciences. A Critical Assessment. Solid Earth Sciences and Society［M］. Washington DC，New York: National Academy Press, 1993. 120-125. 
[6]Chen Yong. Estimating losses from future earthquakes in China［A］. In：Schenk V, eds. Earthquake Hazard and Risk［C］. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1996. 49-56. 
[7]Chen Yong, Liu J, Chen L, et al. Global seismic hazard assessment based on area source model and seismicity data［J］.Natural Hazards, 1998, 17: 251-267.
[8]Chan L S, Chen Yong, Chen Q, et al. Assessment of global seismic loss based on macroeconomic indicators［J］. Natural Hazards, 1998, 17: 269-283.
[9]World Bank. World Development Report 1998［M］. New York: Oxford University Press, 1999. 15-40.
[10]Chen Yong(陈颙), Li Li(李丽), Wang Baoshan(王宝善). Human activity, natural disasters and active tectonics［J］. Quaternary Sciences(第四纪研究), 2002,21(4): 313-320(in Chinese)
[11]Chen Yong(陈颙)，Chen Qifu(陈棋福)，Li Juan(李娟). Advance in active tectonics research［J］. Earthquake Research in China(中国地震)，2001,(2): 103-109(in Chinese)
[12]Chen Yong(陈颙)，Chen Qifu(陈棋福)，Huang Jing(黄静)，et al. Reduction of earthquake disasters［J］. Acta Seismologica Sinica(地震学报). 2003, 25(6): 621-629(in Chinese).
[13]Risk Management Solution. What if the 1923 Earthquake strikes again ? A five Prefecture Tokyo Region Scenario［M］. Risk Management Solution,1995.

[1]	崔林丽, 史军, 杜华强. 植被物候的遥感提取及其影响因素研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2021, 36(1): 9-16.
[2]	黄婉彬,鄢春华,张晓楠,邱国玉. 城市化对地下水水量、水质与水热变化的影响及其对策分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(5): 497-512.
[3]	黄勋, 唐川. 基于数值模拟的泥石流灾害定量风险评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(10): 1047-1055.
[4]	任国玉, 任玉玉, 李庆祥, 徐文慧. 全球陆地表面气温变化研究现状、问题和展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(8): 934-946.
[5]	胡宁，张朝林，仲跻芹，李玉焕. 大气对流层平流层交换（STE）研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(4): 375-385.
[6]	樊杰，李平星. 基于城市化的中国能源消费前景分析及对碳排放的相关思考[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(1): 57-65.
[7]	符娟林,乔标. 基于模糊物元的城市化生态预警模型及应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2008, 23(9): 990-995.
[8]	姚士谋,管驰明,王书国,陈爽. 我国城市化发展的新特点及其区域空间建设策略[J]. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(3): 271-280.
[9]	AbhineetyGoel,Dr.R.B.Singh. 以减少碳损失为目标的印度大城市可持续林业：以德里地区为例[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(2): 144-150.
[10]	史培军,杜鹃,冀萌新,刘婧,王静爱. 中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(2): 170-177.
[11]	刘桂禄. 兰州市城镇体系发展战略规划构想[J]. 地球科学进展, 2004, 19(2): 321-324.
[12]	于晟，陈颙，常旭，葛洪魁. 城市化进程与地球物理学研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2002, 17(5): 729-733.
[13]	徐小黎，史培军，何春阳. 北京和深圳城市化比较研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2002, 17(2): 221-228.
[14]	李恒鹏,杨桂山. 全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2002, 17(1): 104-109.
[15]	刁承泰. 城市地貌学的探讨[J]. 地球科学进展, 1990, 5(6): 42-47.

阅读次数

全文

摘要