中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.02.0170

地球科学进展 ›› 2006, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (2): 170 -177. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.02.0170

“土地利用/覆盖变化与综合减灾”专辑上一篇下一篇

中国城市主要自然灾害风险评价研究

史培军 ^1,2,杜鹃 ^1,2, 冀萌新 ^1,2,刘婧 ^1,2,王静爱 ³

1．北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室，北京 100875；2．北京师范大学资源学院灾害与公共安全研究所，北京 100875；3．北京师范大学地理学与遥感科学学院，北京 100875

收稿日期:2005-12-20 出版日期:2006-02-15
通讯作者: Wang Jing′ai E-mail:sqq@bnu.edu.cn
基金资助:
NSFC-40535024, National "985 Project": Public Security Policy Platform of BNU

Urban Risk Assessment Research of Major Natural Disasters in China

Shi Peijun ^1,2,Du Juan ^1,2,Ji Mengxin ^1,2,Liu Jing ^1,2,Wang Jing´ai ³

1.Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education of China,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China; 2. Institute of Disaster and Public Security, College of Resources Science & Technology, Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China; 3.College of Geography & Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

Received:2005-12-20 Online:2006-02-15 Published:2006-02-15

下载PDF ( 4150 )

本文依据灾害系统理论和中国自然灾害数据库，构建了反映城市承灾体的综合城市化水平（CL）指标，并在此基础上得到城市脆弱性水平指数。考虑对城市具有结构性破坏和易于造成交通灾情的主要灾种，即水灾、地震、滑坡—泥石流、台风、沙尘暴，构建了反映城市主要致灾因子的综合自然灾害强度（QC）指标，并得到城市综合自然灾害强度指数。据此，在定性分析的基础上，通过半定量计算，将中国城市主要自然灾害风险划分为高风险、较高风险、中等风险、较低风险、低风险5个等级，编制了中国城市自然灾害风险评价图，并对灾害链的综合风险评价作了进一步的探讨。

关键词: 综合城市化水平, 灾害脆弱性, 综合自然灾害强度, 综合自然灾害风险评价

According to disaster system theory and the natural disaster database of China, this paper builds the urban vulnerability index on the basis of the integrated urbanization level index (CL) of hazard-affected bodies; and considering the structural damage and the influence on traffic of different natural disasters, this paper chooses five major disaster types (including flood, earthquake, debris flow-rock slide, typhoon and dust storm) to build and compute the integrated intensity index of major natural hazards (QC). Then through qualitative analysis and semi-quantitative calculation, the integrated urban risk of major natural disasters in china is divided into five grades, namely very high, high, medium, low and very low grades, and the corresponding assessment map is worked out. At last, some further discussion is done about the integrated risk assessment of natural disaster chains.

Key words: Integrated urbanization level, Vulnerability of natural disasters, Integrated intensity of natural hazards, Integrated risk assessment of natural disasters

中图分类号:

X820.4

[1] 中国新闻网:中国城市化率进入快速增长期[EB/OL]. http://www.chinanews.com.cn/news/2005/2005-06-02/26/581726.shtml.

[2] Editor group of “Urban Development Report of China”, Chinese Mayor Association. 2003-2004 Urban Development Report of China [M]. Beijing: Electronic Industry Press,2005.[中国市长协会《中国城市发展报告》编委会.2003—2004中国城市发展报告[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2005.]

[3] Wang Jing’ai, Wang Jue, Ye Tao. Hazard assessment of urban flood disaster and sustainable development in China [J]. Journal of Beijing Normal University (Social Science), 2004, (3): 138-143. [王静爱,王珏,叶涛.中国城市水灾危险性与可持续发展[J]. 北京师范大学学报:人文社会科学版,2004, (3):138-143.]

[4] Xu Wei, Wang Jing’ai, Shi Peijun, et al. Hazard degree assessment of urban earthquake disaster in China [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2004, 13(1): 9-15. [徐伟,王静爱,史培军, 等. 中国城市地震危险度评价[J]. 自然灾害学报,2004,13(1):9-15.]

[5] Huang Chongfu. Theory and Practice of Natural Disaster Risk Assessment [M]. Beijing: Science Press,2004. [黄崇福.自然灾害风险评价理论与实践[M]. 北京:科学出版社,2004.]

[6] Arthue Lerner-Lam. Global natural disaster risk hotspots: Transition to a regional approach[C]∥Shi Peijun et al, eds. Proceedings of the Fifth Annual ILASA-DPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management. Beijing: Beijing Normal University,2005.

[7] Liu Xilin. Risk regionalization research of rock slide[J]. Journal of Geologic Mechanics, 2000, 6(4): 37-42. [刘希林. 泥石流风险区划研究[J]. 地质力学学报,2000,6(4):37-42.]

[8] Ding Yan, Shi Peijun. Fuzzy risk assessment model of typhoon hazard[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2002, 11(1): 34-43. [丁燕,史培军.台风灾害的模糊风险评估模型[J]. 自然灾害学报,2002, 11(1):34-43.]

[9] Wang Jing’ai, Shi Peijun, Wang Ying, et al. Urban natural disaster regionalization of China[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2005, 14 (6):42-46. [王静爱,史培军,王瑛,等. 中国城市自然灾害区划编制[J]. 自然灾害学报,2005, 14(6):42-46]

[10] Cutter S. Vulnerability to environmental hazards [J]. Progress in Human Geography, 1996, 20(4): 529-539.

[11] Hossain S M N. Assessing Human Vulnerability due to Environmental Change: Concepts and Assessment Methodologies [D]. Stockholm:Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Royal Institute of Technology, 2001.

[12] Zhou Li, Shi Peijun, Chenjin, et al. Application of compound night light index derived from DMSP/OLS data to urbanization analysis in china in the 1990s[J]. Journal of Geography,2003, 58 (6): 901-902. [卓莉,史培军,陈晋,等. 20世纪90年代中国城市时空变化特征——基于灯光指数CNLI方法的探讨[J]. 地理学报,2003, 58 (6):901-902.]

[13] Ben Wisner, Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon, et al. At Risk Second Ediction[M]. New York: Routledge,2003.

[14] Shi Peijun. The theory of disaster research and its practice[J]. Journal of Nanjing University (Natural Science), 1991, (11):37-42.[史培军. 灾害研究的理论与实践[J]. 南京大学学报:自然科学版,1991,自然灾害研究专辑(11):37-42.]

[1]	王静爱,苏筠,商彦蕊,洪世奇,王志强,刘珍. 中国旱灾农业承灾体脆弱性诊断与评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(2): 161-169.

阅读次数

全文

摘要