气候突变:史实与意义

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.1999.02.0177

地球科学进展 ›› 1999, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 177 -182. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.1999.02.0177

气候突变:史实与意义

郑景云,葛全胜,张丕远

中国科学院地理研究所,北京 100101

收稿日期:1998-05-28 修回日期:1998-08-17 出版日期:1999-04-01
通讯作者: 郑景云,男,1966年2月生,副研究员,主要从事全球变化研究。
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“近两千年来中国主要农业界限土地覆盖变化过程研究”(编号:49771006)资助。

ABRUPT CLIMATIC CHANGE:EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATION

ZHENG Jingyun,GE Quansheng,ZNAHG Piyuan

Institute ofGeography,Chinese Academy ofSciences,Beijing 100101,China

Received:1998-05-28 Revised:1998-08-17 Online:1999-04-01 Published:1999-04-01

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利用国际上有关气候突变研究的最新结果,综述了冰期与间冰期气候突变的史实,重点探讨了近2 000年以来的气候突变问题。结果表明:无论是冷期或是暖期,气候均存在突变。特别是发生于Eemian期间和近2 000年以来的气候突变,为暖期气候也存在突变提供了非常重要的证据。同时还发现:发生于1230AD年的气候突变,虽然其幅度较冰期与间冰期气候突变要小得多,但同样具有全球性。这些结果动摇了过去认为“气候只在冷期发生突变及全新世以来气候基本稳定”的结论,也预示着下一世纪气候不稳定的可能性将可能会增加,对全球气候和气候预测研究具有非常重要的意义。

关键词: 气候突变, 全球气候变化, 气候预测

The abrupt change of climate discoveredwithin recentyearsmainlyoccurredwithin glacial period ortransition period from cold to warm,which were assumed caused by the melting and freezing process of the huge ice sheet,these processes drove the vertical oceanic circulation and resulted the abrupt climate change.However,it has been found that the abrupt events also characterized in Eemain andHolocene more recently,particularly at lowtomid-latitudes,which was supposed as a climatic stable episode.The evidences fromGreenland and France showthere were some abrupt events embedded in Eemain: And the evidences from Chinese Historical writings show there was an abrupt event around 1230 AD,whichwas also identified bythe other proxy data fromChina,includingthe lake sediment fromLake Kunming in Beijing,ice core from Guliya in Tibet Plateau and salt lake sediment from Lake Hetong-chahan and Lake Hammer in Inner Mongolia.Moreover,the abrupt event around 1230 ADwas identified by evidences fromNorthAmerica and Europe. These evidencessuggest that the abrupt climatic event around 1230 AD occurred not only in China but also in Europe and America.The implication for the mentioned results suggests that the climate inHolocene is also unstable and that the instability of the climate for coming century may increase.

Key words: Abrupt climatic change, Global climate change, Climate predication.

中图分类号:

P467/P532

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