地球科学进展 doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.023

   

2022 年夏季长江流域极端高温的 研究进展与展望
华文剑1,2,冯慧婷1,2,崔亚朱1,2,3,胡宇涵1,2,4   
  1. (1. 南京信息工程大学 气候系统预测与变化应对全国重点实验室/气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气象灾害 预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏 南京 210044;2. 南京信息工程大学 大气科学学院, 江苏 南京 210044;3. 徐州市气象局,江苏 徐州 221000;4. 复旦大学 大气与海洋科学系/大气科学研究院,上海 200348)
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2022YFF0801601);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42075022)资助.

2022 Summertime Heat Extremes in the Yangtze River Basin: Review and Prospect

HUA Wenjian1,2, FENG Huiting1,2, CUI Yazhu1,2,3,  HU Yuhan1,2,4   

  1. (1. State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 2. School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; 3. Xuzhou Meteorological Administration, Xuzhou Jiangsu 221000, China; 4. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai 200348, China)
  • About author:HUA Wenjian, Research areas include climate variability and change. E-mail: wenjian@nuist.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    Project supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2022YFF0801601); The National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42075022).
2022 年夏季长江流域经历了前所未有的高温热浪,引发科学界的广泛关注。受长达一个 多月的破纪录高温与干旱影响,此次极端事件不仅对人类、经济和环境造成了日益严重的损失,也 加剧了粮食不安全状况,阻碍了可持续发展。因此,更加全面地认识2022 年夏季长江流域极端高 温,对于理解全球变暖背景下极端事件变化的原因,认识人类活动和自然变率的影响,以及评估可 能面临的气候风险都具有重要的科学意义。首先回顾了2022 年夏季长江流域极端高温的主要特 征、形成机制和原因,以及近3 年来对此次极端高温事件的研究进展。研究表明,2022 年夏季长江 流域高温是一次罕见的极端热事件,此次事件的发生主要是由西太平洋副热带高压(西太副高)、 南亚高压等环流异常,“三重”La Niña(连续3 年发生的La Niña 事件)、大西洋和印度洋等海温强 迫,以及土壤湿度—气温等陆气反馈等综合作用造成。除了自然变率的贡献,人类活动也是造成 本次事件的主要因素。随着全球变暖,此类极端高温事件将会成为常态。最后,讨论了极端高温 相关的研究要点、存在问题以及未来可能的发展方向。
Abstract: In the summer of 2022, the Yangtze River Basin experienced unprecedented heatwaves, which aroused wide attention from the scientific community. Affected by over a month of record-breaking high temperature and drought, this extreme event has not only caused increasingly serious losses to humans, economic and environment, but exacerbated food insecurity and hindered sustainable development. Therefore, a more comprehensive understanding of the extreme heat in the Yangtze River Basin in the summer of 2022 is essential for understanding the causes of changes in extreme events under the context of global warming, and for recognizing the impacts of human activities and natural variability, as well as evaluating the potential climate risks. The study firstly reviews the main characteristics, formation mechanisms and causes of the extreme high temperature in the Yangtze River Basin in the summer of 2022, and further summarizes the research progress of the 2022 summertime heat extremes in the last three years. Results show that 2022 summertime high temperature in the Yangtze River Basin is a rare extreme heat event. The occurrence of this event was mainly caused by the atmospheric circulation anomalies due to the western Pacific subtropical High and the South Asian High, the triple La Nina, the Atlantic and Indian SST forcing, and the land-atmosphere feedback (e.g., soil moisture and air temperature). In addition to the contribution of natural variability, human activities are also the main factors influencing the heat extremes. Without anthropogenic forcing, it is almost impossible to happen. Such rare extreme heatwaves are projected to become much more common under global warming. Finally, this study discusses the relevant research points and problems of the extreme high temperature.

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