中国多年冻土制图：进展、挑战与机遇

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.10.1015

多年冻土制图是冻土学的基础研究方向之一。通过总结我国多年冻土制图的发展历程，讨论了多年冻土分类系统和多年冻土（区）面积，并从经验模型、物理模型、统计学习3个方面探讨了我国多年冻土制图方法的研究进展。根据制图手段、数据可用性、模型和方法的不同，将我国多年冻土制图分为3个发展阶段：起步阶段（20世纪60~80年代）、遥感和GIS初步应用阶段（20世纪90年代至2010年）和多源观测与综合模型融合阶段（2010年至今）。不同阶段对多年冻土面积的认识有较大差别，随着制图空间分辨率与精度的提高，新的冻土图更接近代表真实的多年冻土面积。在制图方法方面，经验模型与物理模型的发展贯穿3个阶段，经验模型与遥感的结合是目前中国多年冻土制图的主要方法；冻土物理模型发展迅速，通过与其他模型的耦合，特别是与分布式水文模型的耦合，为模拟冻土变化的生态水文效应提供了重要工具；随着地面与遥感观测数据的积累，统计学习方法表现出较大潜力。地球观测系统的发展为冻土监测提供了前所未有的机遇。地面调查的优化、数据积累与开放共享、冻土遥感方法的进一步发展、深化多年冻土深层过程的理解与物理模型的进一步改进及其与观测的融合等，都将有助于突破中国多年冻土制图面临的挑战，促进对中国多年冻土过去、现在和未来变化的认识。

关键词: 冻土遥感, 经验模型, 物理模型, 多年冻土面积, 统计学习

Permafrost mapping is the basic research direction of geocryology. This paper summarized the development history of permafrost mapping in China. The classification system, permafrost (region) area, and the progress of mapping methods at three aspects, i.e. statistical learning, empirical model and physical model in China were discussed. According to the differences of tools, data availability, models, and methods, permafrost mapping in China has experienced three development stages, including initial stage (1960s-1980s), preliminary application of remote sensing and GIS (1990s-2000s), and fusion of multi-source observation and integrated model (2010-). There are differences in the understanding of permafrost distribution and area in different stages. With the improvement of spatial resolution and maps accuracy, the new permafrost map represents the true permafrost distribution and area better. For methodology, the development of empirical model and physical model runs through three stages. The combination of remote sensing and empirical-based model is the dominated method at present, but statistical learning shows great potential with the accumulation of ground-based and remote sensed data, and physical-based model develops rapidly in China. Coupling with other models, especially with distributed hydrological models, physical-based model provides an important tool for simulating the ecological and hydrological effects of frozen soil changes. The development of earth observation system provides unprecedented opportunities for monitoring permafrost. The optimization of ground survey, data accumulation and open sharing, further development of remote sensing methods, deepening processes understanding of deeper permafrost, further improvement of physical models and their integration with multi-source observations will help break through the challenges faced by permafrost mapping in China and promote the understanding of past, present and future changes of permafrost in China.

Key words: Remote sensing, Empirical model, Physical model, Permafrost area, Statistical learning.

中图分类号:

P642.4

图1 中国多年冻土制图发展的3个阶段

Fig.1 Three development stages of permafrost mapping in China

图2 卫星遥感应用于多年冻土制图的主要方式与途径

Fig.2 Main approaches for applications of satellite remote sensing for permafrost mapping

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Progress, Challenges and Opportunities of Permafrost Mapping in China