海平面上升及其风险管理

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.04.0350

海平面上升是人为气候变暖最为严重的后果之一。近年来海平面上升及其风险管理研究与实践取得了突破性进展:①海平面上升作为一种致灾因子,需要预测未来可能的情景及其概率,并关注低概率高影响的上限情景。为此,近年来发展了完全概率估计方法,以典型浓度路径和共享社会经济路径情景为条件,对未来海平面上升进行多情景及其概率估算。②在高排放情景下,冰盖模式模拟得出南极冰盖到2100年对海平面的贡献高达0.781.50 m,远高出IPCC第五次报告的估计。③21世纪末的全球平均海平面(GMSL)上限由原来的2.0 m调高为2.5 m,并指出21世纪之后,海平面上升仍很可能加速,但上升的不确定性将增大。④发展了综合考虑极端情景和中间情景、适应对策路径和稳健决策等方法,进行长周期关键项目决策、规划和风险管理,以管理海平面上升的潜在影响和风险。海平面上升及其风险管理研究今后需要加强监测、分析和模拟来预测不同时间尺度全球、区域和地方海平面上升的情景和概率,加强冰盖的动力过程和突变研究,减小海平面上升预测的不确定性,评估其上限情景,加强深度不确定性下的风险决策方法及其应用研究,以满足沿海地区气候变化适应规划和风险管理决策的需求。

关键词: 海平面上升, 情景, 概率, 致灾因子, 风险管理

Sea level rise is among the most severe societal consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Significant advance has been achieved in recent years in the study of future sea level rise and its risk management practice: ①Sea level rise is considered as a kind of hazard,its future plausible scenarios and their probabilities are necessary to be predicted and estimated,and the upper limit with very low probability and high consequences should be emphasized. For this purpose,a complete probability distribution framework has been developed to predict the scenarios and probabilities of future sea level rise with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in recent years. ② For a high emissions scenario,it was found that Antarctic Ice Sheet might make a contribution to Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) rise as high as 78150 cm (mean value 114 cm) by 2100. For the same scenario,the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report gave an Antarctic contribution of only -8+14 cm (mean value 4 cm). ③ Recent studies recommended a revised worst-case (Extreme) GMSL rise scenario of 2.5 m from previous 2.0 m by 2100. It is recognized that GMSL rise will not stop at 2100; rather,it will continue to rise for centuries afterwards,but the degree of uncertainty related to sea level rise will increase. ④ Approaches of combining the upper-bound scenario and a central estimate or mid-range scenario, Adaptation Pathways and robust decision-making are developed to provide a set of long-term planning envelope. These decision-making methods are used widely in coastal risk management related to future sea level rise. Sea level rise and its risk management need to enhance monitoring,analysis and simulation to predict the global,regional and local seal level rise scenarios and the probabilities with different time scales,reduce the estimate uncertainty, assess its upper limits, and enhance decision methods and their application under deep uncertain, in order to meet the needs of climate change adaptation planning,decision-making and long-term risk management in coastal regions.

Key words: Sea level rise, Scenario, Probability, Hazard, Risk management.

中图分类号:

P951

表1 2100年GMSL(中位值)情景的超越概率 ^{[

38
]}(单位:%)

Table 1 Probability of exceeding GMSL(median value)scenarios in 2100 ^{[

38
]}(unit:%)

GMSL上升情景/m	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
低(0.3)	94	98	100
中—低(0.5)	94	98	100
中(1.0)	2	3	17
中—高(1.5)	0.40	0.50	1.30
高(2.0)	0.10	0.10	0.30
极端(2.5)	0.05	0.05	0.10

表1 2100年GMSL(中位值)情景的超越概率 ^{[

38
]}(单位:%)

Table 1 Probability of exceeding GMSL(median value)scenarios in 2100 ^{[

38
]}(unit:%)

GMSL上升情景/m	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
低(0.3)	94	98	100
中—低(0.5)	94	98	100
中(1.0)	2	3	17
中—高(1.5)	0.40	0.50	1.30
高(2.0)	0.10	0.10	0.30
极端(2.5)	0.05	0.05	0.10

表1 2100年GMSL(中位值)情景的超越概率 ^{[

38
]}(单位:%)

Table 1 Probability of exceeding GMSL(median value)scenarios in 2100 ^{[

38
]}(unit:%)

GMSL上升情景/m	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
低(0.3)	94	98	100
中—低(0.5)	94	98	100
中(1.0)	2	3	17
中—高(1.5)	0.40	0.50	1.30
高(2.0)	0.10	0.10	0.30
极端(2.5)	0.05	0.05	0.10

表1 2100年GMSL(中位值)情景的超越概率 ^{[

38
]}(单位:%)

Table 1 Probability of exceeding GMSL(median value)scenarios in 2100 ^{[

38
]}(unit:%)

GMSL上升情景/m	RCP2.6	RCP4.5	RCP8.5
低(0.3)	94	98	100
中—低(0.5)	94	98	100
中(1.0)	2	3	17
中—高(1.5)	0.40	0.50	1.30
高(2.0)	0.10	0.10	0.30
极端(2.5)	0.05	0.05	0.10

表2 自2000年起算的GMSL上升情景(19年的平均中值) ^{[

4
]}(单位:m)

Table 2 GMSL rise scenario heights in meters for 19-year averages centered on decade through 2200 initiating in year 2000(only median values are shown) ^{[

4
]}(unit:m)

GMSL情景	2010年	2020年	2030年	2040年	2050年	2060年	2080年	2090年	2100年	2120年	2150年	2200年
低	0.03	0.06	0.09	0.13	0.16	0.19	0.25	0.28	0.3	0.34	0.37	0.39
中低	0.04	0.08	0.13	0.18	0.24	0.29	0.4	0.45	0.5	0.6	0.73	0.95
中	0.04	0.1	0.16	0.25	0.34	0.45	0.71	0.85	1	1.3	1.8	2.8
中高	0.05	0.1	0.19	0.3	0.44	0.6	1	1.2	1.5	2	3.1	5.1
高	0.05	0.11	0.21	0.36	0.54	0.77	1.3	1.7	2	2.8	4.3	7.5
极端	0.04	0.11	0.24	0.41	0.63	0.9	1.6	2	2.5	3.6	5.5	9.7

表2 自2000年起算的GMSL上升情景(19年的平均中值) ^{[

4
]}(单位:m)

Table 2 GMSL rise scenario heights in meters for 19-year averages centered on decade through 2200 initiating in year 2000(only median values are shown) ^{[

4
]}(unit:m)

GMSL情景	2010年	2020年	2030年	2040年	2050年	2060年	2080年	2090年	2100年	2120年	2150年	2200年
低	0.03	0.06	0.09	0.13	0.16	0.19	0.25	0.28	0.3	0.34	0.37	0.39
中低	0.04	0.08	0.13	0.18	0.24	0.29	0.4	0.45	0.5	0.6	0.73	0.95
中	0.04	0.1	0.16	0.25	0.34	0.45	0.71	0.85	1	1.3	1.8	2.8
中高	0.05	0.1	0.19	0.3	0.44	0.6	1	1.2	1.5	2	3.1	5.1
高	0.05	0.11	0.21	0.36	0.54	0.77	1.3	1.7	2	2.8	4.3	7.5
极端	0.04	0.11	0.24	0.41	0.63	0.9	1.6	2	2.5	3.6	5.5	9.7

表2 自2000年起算的GMSL上升情景(19年的平均中值) ^{[

4
]}(单位:m)

Table 2 GMSL rise scenario heights in meters for 19-year averages centered on decade through 2200 initiating in year 2000(only median values are shown) ^{[

4
]}(unit:m)

GMSL情景	2010年	2020年	2030年	2040年	2050年	2060年	2080年	2090年	2100年	2120年	2150年	2200年
低	0.03	0.06	0.09	0.13	0.16	0.19	0.25	0.28	0.3	0.34	0.37	0.39
中低	0.04	0.08	0.13	0.18	0.24	0.29	0.4	0.45	0.5	0.6	0.73	0.95
中	0.04	0.1	0.16	0.25	0.34	0.45	0.71	0.85	1	1.3	1.8	2.8
中高	0.05	0.1	0.19	0.3	0.44	0.6	1	1.2	1.5	2	3.1	5.1
高	0.05	0.11	0.21	0.36	0.54	0.77	1.3	1.7	2	2.8	4.3	7.5
极端	0.04	0.11	0.24	0.41	0.63	0.9	1.6	2	2.5	3.6	5.5	9.7

表2 自2000年起算的GMSL上升情景(19年的平均中值) ^{[

4
]}(单位:m)

Table 2 GMSL rise scenario heights in meters for 19-year averages centered on decade through 2200 initiating in year 2000(only median values are shown) ^{[

4
]}(unit:m)

GMSL情景	2010年	2020年	2030年	2040年	2050年	2060年	2080年	2090年	2100年	2120年	2150年	2200年
低	0.03	0.06	0.09	0.13	0.16	0.19	0.25	0.28	0.3	0.34	0.37	0.39
中低	0.04	0.08	0.13	0.18	0.24	0.29	0.4	0.45	0.5	0.6	0.73	0.95
中	0.04	0.1	0.16	0.25	0.34	0.45	0.71	0.85	1	1.3	1.8	2.8
中高	0.05	0.1	0.19	0.3	0.44	0.6	1	1.2	1.5	2	3.1	5.1
高	0.05	0.11	0.21	0.36	0.54	0.77	1.3	1.7	2	2.8	4.3	7.5
极端	0.04	0.11	0.24	0.41	0.63	0.9	1.6	2	2.5	3.6	5.5	9.7

图1 气候模拟典型浓度路径(RCP)下,与排放相关的海平面上升条件概率预估示意图 ^{[

4
]}

Fig.1 Schematic showing the intersection of scenario approaches with emission-dependent (conditional) probabilistic projections of sea level rise under the climate modeling community’s Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) ^{[

4
]}

图1 气候模拟典型浓度路径(RCP)下,与排放相关的海平面上升条件概率预估示意图 ^{[

4
]}

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Sea Level Rise and Its Risk Management