从风险认知到风险数量化分类

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.01.0042

地球科学进展 ›› 2009, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 42 -48. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2009.01.0042

从风险认知到风险数量化分类

李宁 ¹,张鹏 ^1*,胡爱军 ^1,2,刘雪琴 ¹,崔维佳 ¹,孟志强 ¹,史培军 ^1

1.民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室;环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室;北京师范大学,北京 100875;
2. 湖南省气象局, 湖南长沙 410007

收稿日期:2008-06-23 修回日期:2008-12-15 出版日期:2009-01-10
通讯作者: 张鹏（1981-），男，内蒙古包头人，硕士研究生，主要从事自然灾害风险研究. E-mail:zhangpeng@ires.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目“沙尘暴源地下垫面沙尘致灾因子脆弱性评估及风险贡献”（编号：40771008）；“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目“综合风险防范关键技术研究与示范——综合风险分类与评价技术”(编号：2006BAD20B01)资助.

Risk Perception Quantification with the Application to Analysis of Risk Classification

Li Ning ¹,Zhang Peng ¹,Hu Aijun ^1,2,Liu Xueqin ¹,Cui Weijia ¹,Meng Zhiqiang ¹,Shi Peijun ¹

1.State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China; Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875, China;
2. Meteorological Bureau of Hunan Province, Changsha 410007, China

Received:2008-06-23 Revised:2008-12-15 Online:2009-01-10 Published:2009-01-10

下载PDF ( 2114 )

伴随着社会经济和科技的发展，对风险问题的研究成为风险管理的重要一环，风险分类是进行风险保险、风险管理以及建立风险信息数据库的基础。拟从风险认知的角度，通过人们目前比较关注的41种风险构建了风险0-1判断矩阵，用Hayashi数量化理论III，通过Matlab软件，对构建的0-1风险矩阵进行判断计算，得到风险分类图。通过验证，用Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ对风险的聚类可以取得很好的类别区分效果，类内的风险种类组合与现有的几种政策管理分类框架中的风险类别组合吻合;该方法为风险的数值分类提供了新的思路。

关键词: Hayashi数量化理论Ⅲ, 风险分类, 风险认知, 风险管理

With the development of societal economy and technology, a lot of uncertainty risks become one of the important factors which disturb the human life. Thus, the study of risk problem has become an important part of the risk management. Risk classification is the basis of risk insurance, risk management, and the establishment of risk information database. The objective of this paper is to classify the risk affecting human life from the respective of risk perception. It builds the 0-1 judgment matrix by means of analysis of the current 41 kinds and 6 categories of risks that people are concerned about. Using the Hayashi′ qualification theory Ⅲ, through the Matlab software, to judge the structure of 0-1 risk matrix is judged and calculated to gain the scatter diagram of different risks. By the transform study of the risk scatter diagram we find that clustering the risk through Hayashi′ qualification theory Ⅲ can achieve good results. The risk cluster is objective; the classification result is not affected by transform of the risk matrix in different risk kind and category.

Key words: Hayashi&prime, qualification theory III, Risk classification, Risk perception, Risk management.

中图分类号:

[1] Ortwin Renn. Risk Governance: Towards an Integrative Approach[R]. IRGC white paper No.1, 2005.
[2] Li Liguo, Chen Weilan. Emergency Disposal and Comprehensive Calamity Reduction of Disaster[M]. Beijing:Beijing University Press, 2007.[李立国，陈伟兰.灾害应急处置与综合减灾[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2007.]
[3] Guo Qiang, Chen Xingmin, Zhang Lihan,et al. Disaster Encyclopedia[M]. Taiyuan: Shanxi People’s Publishing House,1996.[郭强，陈兴民,张立汉，等.灾害百科全书[M].太原:山西人民出版社,1996.]
[4] Hayashi Chikio. Quantification Theory(in Japanese)[M]. Tokyo: Japan Newspaper Office of Economy, 1972.[林知已夫. 数量化の方法[M]. 东京：东洋经济新报社, 1972.]
[5] Dong Wenquan, Zhou Guangya, Xia Lixian. Quantification and Its Utilization[M]. Changchun: Jilin People′s Publishing House, 1979.[董文泉, 周光亚, 夏立显. 数量化理论及其应用[M]. 长春: 吉林人民出版社, 1979.]
[6] Li Qiang, Song Hui, Bai Yongsheng. Evaluating general equipment support training based on fuzzy quantitative theory III[J]. Armament Automation, 2006, 25(11): 6-14.[李强, 宋辉, 白永生. 基于模糊数量化理论Ⅲ的通用装备保障训练考评[J]. 武器装备自动化, 2006, 25(11): 6-14.]
[7] Zhao Liming, Quan Huaizhou. The application of fuzzy quantitative theory III in performance appraisal of human resource[J]. Journal of North west Sci-Tech University of Agriculture and Forestry (Social Science Edition), 2004, 4(1): 76-85.[赵黎明, 全怀周. 模糊数量化理论III在人力资源绩效评估中的应用[J].西北农林科技大学学报:社会科学版, 2004, 4(1): 76-85.]
[8] Wang Jiuli , Li Yaguang. Application of quantification theory III to comprehensive evaluation of land quality[J].Journal of Beijing Forestry University,1992,14(2):31-37.[王久丽,李亚光.数量化理论III在土地质量综合评价中的应用[J].北京林业大学学报,1992，14（2）:31-37.]
[9] Xiao Huashan. Application of the quantification theory in the environment supervision & judgment[J].Journal of Anhui Chemical,2003,5(1):33-35.[肖华山.数理化理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].安徽化工,2003,5(1):33-35]
[10] WBGU (Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltver nderungen). World in Transition: Strategies for Managing Global Environmental Risks[R]. Annual Report 1998. Berlin, Germany: Springer, 2000.
[11] Su Guiwu, Gao Qinghua. The elements for analyzing natural disaster risk[J].Earth Science Frontiers, 2003,10(suppl.):272-279.[ 苏桂武,高庆华.自然灾害风险的分析要素[J].地学前缘,2003, 10(特刊): 272-279.]
[12] Slovic P. Perception of risk[J].Science,1987,236(4 799):280-285.
[13] Xie Xiaofei, Wang Mei, Xu Liancang. What risks are Chinese people concerned about?[J]. Risk Analysis, 2003, 23(4):685-695.
[14] Neto F, Mullet E. Societal risk as seen by Chinese students living in Macao[J].Journal of Risk Research, 2001, 4:63-73.
[15] Shi Peijun, Zou Ming, Li Baojun, et al. Regional safety construction and risk management system—The actuality and trend of the study of disaster and risk based on the world congress on risk[J].Advances in Earth Science,2005, 20(2): 173-179.[史培军,邹铭,李保俊,等.从区域安全建设到风险管理体系的形成——从第一届世界风险大会看灾害与风险研究的现状与发展趋向[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(2): 173-179.]

[1]	温家洪, 袁穗萍, 李大力, 王璐阳, 张敏, 杜士强. 海平面上升及其风险管理[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(4): 350-360.
[2]	张强, 马芳, 王莺, 宋连春, 马鹏里. 浅论气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(6): 709-714.
[3]	付在毅,许学工. 区域生态风险评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2001, 16(2): 267-271.

阅读次数

全文

摘要

选择文件类型/文献管理软件名称

选择包含的内容

Risk Perception Quantification with the Application to Analysis of Risk Classification

模态框（Modal）标题

选择文件类型/文献管理软件名称

选择包含的内容

Risk Perception Quantification with the Application to Analysis of Risk Classification