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地球科学进展  2013, Vol. 28 Issue (8): 866-874    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.08.0866
综述与评述     
风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述
石先武,谭骏,国志兴,刘钦政
国家海洋局海洋减灾中心,北京 100194
A Review of Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Disaster
Shi Xianwu, Tan Jun, Guo Zhixing, Liu Qinzheng
National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, Beijing 100194, China
 全文: PDF(966 KB)  
摘要:

我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求。系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点。

关键词: 风暴潮典型重现期可能最大风暴潮脆弱性风险评估    
Abstract:

China is one of the few countries seriously affected by storm surge. Although great progress has been made in the past few decades in the study of the forming of storm surge disaster, the current achievement of storm surge vulnerability and risk assessment cannot meet the demand of the storm surge risk management. In this paper, the latest progress of storm surge hazard, vulnerability, comprehensive risk assessment and its application are systematically reviewed, specially focusing on the computing of typical return period storm surge and probable maximum storm surge, its physical and social vulnerability, the application of storm surge risk assessment and its deficiencies. Based on this, this paper gives a future prospective of the urgent problems and future research emphasis in storm surge risk assessment. The future work should focus on the storm surge disaster model building, systematic and quantitative research of storm surge disaster. When   the future risk assessment is considered, the climate change and the sea-level rise should also be taken into account. The quantitative assessment of vulnerability of typical coastal exposure affected by the storm surge is still a big challenge of comprehensive storm surge risk assessment.

Key words: Storm surge    Typical return period    Probable maximum storm surge    Vulnerability    Risk assessment
收稿日期: 2013-05-06 出版日期: 2013-08-10
:  P954  
基金资助:

海洋公益性行业科研专项“海洋灾情快速评估和综合研判系统研发与应用示范”(编号:201305020);沿海大型工程风险排查及海洋灾害风险评估工作专项资助.

作者简介: 石先武(1986-),男,湖北大冶人,研究实习员,主要从事风暴潮灾害风险评估研究.E-mail:xianwu.shi@mail.bnu.edu.cn
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石先武,谭骏,国志兴,刘钦政. 风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(8): 866-874.

Shi Xianwu, Tan Jun, Guo Zhixing, Liu Qinzheng. A Review of Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Disaster. Advances in Earth Science, 2013, 28(8): 866-874.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.08.0866        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2013/V28/I8/866

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