地球科学进展 ›› 2013, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (8): 866 -874. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2013.08.0866

综述与评述 上一篇    下一篇

风暴潮灾害风险评估研究综述
石先武,谭骏,国志兴,刘钦政   
  1. 国家海洋局海洋减灾中心,北京 100194
  • 收稿日期:2013-05-06 修回日期:2013-07-03 出版日期:2013-08-10
  • 基金资助:

    海洋公益性行业科研专项“海洋灾情快速评估和综合研判系统研发与应用示范”(编号:201305020);沿海大型工程风险排查及海洋灾害风险评估工作专项资助.

A Review of Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Disaster

Shi Xianwu, Tan Jun, Guo Zhixing, Liu Qinzheng   

  1. National Marine Hazard Mitigation Service, Beijing 100194, China
  • Received:2013-05-06 Revised:2013-07-03 Online:2013-08-10 Published:2013-08-10

我国是受风暴潮影响最严重的少数国家之一,风暴潮灾害致灾机理的研究在过去几十年取得了极大的进展,而风暴潮脆弱性评估和综合风险评估还不能满足风暴潮灾害风险管理的需求。系统总结了风暴潮危险性、脆弱性、综合风险评估及其应用的研究进展,重点分析了典型重现期风暴潮估计、可能最大风暴潮计算、风暴潮物理脆弱性和社会脆弱性评估以及风暴潮风险评估及其应用的研究进展及不足,并对我国风暴潮风险评估急需解决的问题以及未来的研究重点进行了展望,指出了风暴潮灾害风险评估的模型化、系统化、定量化是未来风暴潮风险评估研究的发展趋势,风暴潮灾害的未来风险评估还需考虑全球气候变化以及海平面上升等因素的影响,而风暴潮灾害承灾体脆弱性的定量评价是风暴潮综合风险评估的重点和难点。

China is one of the few countries seriously affected by storm surge. Although great progress has been made in the past few decades in the study of the forming of storm surge disaster, the current achievement of storm surge vulnerability and risk assessment cannot meet the demand of the storm surge risk management. In this paper, the latest progress of storm surge hazard, vulnerability, comprehensive risk assessment and its application are systematically reviewed, specially focusing on the computing of typical return period storm surge and probable maximum storm surge, its physical and social vulnerability, the application of storm surge risk assessment and its deficiencies. Based on this, this paper gives a future prospective of the urgent problems and future research emphasis in storm surge risk assessment. The future work should focus on the storm surge disaster model building, systematic and quantitative research of storm surge disaster. When   the future risk assessment is considered, the climate change and the sea-level rise should also be taken into account. The quantitative assessment of vulnerability of typical coastal exposure affected by the storm surge is still a big challenge of comprehensive storm surge risk assessment.

中图分类号: 

[1]State Oceanic Administration of China. 2012 Chinese Marine Disaster Bulletin[R]. Beijing: State Oceanic Administration of China,  2013.[国家海洋局. 2012年中国海洋灾害公报[R]. 北京:国家海洋局,2013.]

[2]Wang Xinian. Storm surge forecasting and countermeasure[J].Marine Forecasts,1998, 15(3):26-31.[王喜年. 风暴潮灾害及其预报与防御对策[J]. 海洋预报, 1998, 15(3):26-31.]

[3]Le Kentang. The basic problem of the storm surge disaster risk assessment methodin China[J]. Marine Forecasts,1998, 15:38-44.[乐肯堂. 我国风暴潮灾害风险评估方法的基本问题[J]. 海洋预报, 1998, 15:38-44.]

[4]Glahn B, Taylor A, Kurkowski N, et al. The role of the SLOSH model in National Weather Service storm surge forecasting[J]. National Weather Digest,2009, 33(1):3-14.

[5]Tsunami·Storm Surge Research Association. Tsunami·Storm surge Manual[R].Tokyo: The Cabinet Office, 2003.[津波·高潮ハザードマップ研究会事務局. 津波·高潮ハザードマップマニュアル[R].東京:内閣府, 2003.]

[6]Watson J, Charles C. The arbiter of storms: A high resolution, GIS-based system for integrated storm hazard modeling[J].National Weather Digest,1995, 20(2):2-9.

[7]Dong Jianxi, Fu Xiang, Wu Wei, et al. Operational forecast and test of the high resolution numerical storm surge forecast model for China sea[J].Marine Forecasts,2008, 25(2): 11-16.[董剑希, 付翔, 吴玮,等. 中国海高分辨率业务化风暴潮模式的业务化预报检验[J]. 海洋预报, 2008, 25(2):11-16.]

[8]Song Xuejia, Liu Qinzheng, Wang Zhanggui, et al. Key scientific problems in the prediction of the marine environment[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2005,22(Suppl.):7-16.[宋学家, 刘钦政, 王彰贵,等. 海洋环境预测中的关键科学问题[J]. 海洋预报, 2005,22(增刊):7-16.]

[9]JTJ 213-98. Code of Hydrology for Sea Harbour[S]. Beijing: China Communications Press, 2000.[JTJ 213-98. 海港水文规范[S]. 北京:人民交通出版社, 2000.] 

[10]Todd L W J. Distributions for storm surge extremes[J]. Ocean Engineering,2000, 27:1 279-1 293.

[11]Wang Xinian, Chen Xiangfu. Calculation of return periods towards part of the wave of measurement sites in China[J]. Marine Forecast Service,1984, 1(1):18-25.[王喜年,陈祥福. 我国部分测站台风潮重现期的计算[J]. 海洋预报服务, 1984, 1(1):18-25.]

[12]Qiu Xueyan, Wang Chao, Qin Chongren. The application of threshold procedure in design of river and coastal engineering[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2001,8: 32-37.[仇学艳, 王超, 秦崇仁. 阈值法在河海工程设计中的应用[J]. 水利学报, 2001, 8:32-37.]

[13]Coles S. An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values[M]. Heidelberg: Springer, 2007.

[14]Liang Haiyan, Zou Xinqing. Calculation of overland risk of storm surge off the Haikou Bay[J].Marine Science Bulletin, 2004, 23(3):20-26.[梁海燕, 邹欣庆. 海口湾沿岸风暴潮漫滩风险计算[J]. 海洋通报, 2004, 23(3):20-26.]

[15]Dong Sheng, Hao Xiaoli, Li Feng, et al. Long term distribution of disaster-caused typhoon storm surges in the coastal area[J].Advances in Water Science,2005, 16(1):42-46.[董胜, 郝小丽, 李锋,等. 海岸地区致灾台风暴潮的长期分布模式[J]. 水科学进展, 2005, 16(1):42-46.]

[16]Wang Chao. The probability of a random combination of analysis and design water level projections[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica,1986, 8(3): 366-375.[王超. 随机组合概率分析法及设计水位的推算[J]. 海洋学报, 1986, 8(3) : 366-375.]

[17]Fang Guohong, Wang Ji, Jia Shaode, et al. A method for estimating extreme sea levels based on tide-surgejoint probability in ocean engineering[J]. Studia Marina Sinica,1993, 34:1-30.[方国洪, 王骥, 贾绍德,等. 海洋工程中极值水位估计的一种条件分布联合概率方法[J]. 海洋科学集刊, 1993, 34:1-30.]

[18]Liu Defu, Han Fengting, Pang Liang, et al. Probabilistic approach of coastal defense against typhoon attacks for nuclear power plant[J]. Periodical of Ocean University of China, 2010, 40(6):140-146.[刘德辅, 韩凤亭, 庞亮,等. 台风作用下核电站海岸防护标准的概率分析[J]. 中国海洋大学学报, 2010, 40(6):140-146.]

[19]Liu D F, Pang L, Xie B T. Typhoon disaster in China—Prediction, prevention and mitigation[J]. Natural Hazards, 2009, doi:10.1007/s11069-008-9262-2.

[20]Wu Zhanke, Zhao Lin, Ge Yaojun. Statistical analysis of wind velocity and rainfall intensity joint probability distribution of Shanghai area in typhoon condition[J].Acta Aerodynamica Sinca, 2010, 28(4):393-399.[武占科, 赵林, 葛耀君.上海地区台风条件风速和雨强联合概率分布统计[J]. 空气动力学报, 2010, 28(4):393-399.]

[21]Silverman B W. Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis[M]. London: Chapman & Hall, 1986.

[22]Vickery P, Skerlj P, Twisdale L. Simulation of hurricane risk in the U.S. using empirical track model[J]. Journal of Structure Engineering,2000, 26(10):1 222-1 237.

[23]Emanuel K, Ravela S, Vivant E, et al. A statistical deterministic approach to hurricane risk assessment[J]. American Meteorological Society, 2006, 87:299-314.

[24]Graf M, Nishijima K, Faber M H. A probabilistic typhoon model for the Northwest Pacific region[C]∥The Seventh Asia Pacific Conference on Wind Engineering. Taiwan: Taipei, 2009.

[25]Yasuda T, Mase H, Kunitomi S, et al. Stochastic typhoon model and ITS application to future typhoon projection[J]. Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 2011, 1: management-16.

[26]Nong S, McCollum J, Xu L, et al. Probabilistic storm surge heights for the US using full stochastic events[C]∥The 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Arizona: Tucson, 2010.

[27]Lin N, Emanuel K, Smith J A, et al. Risk assessment of hurricane storm surge for New York city[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2010,115:D18.

[28]Fang Weihua, Shi Xianwu. Review on stochastic modeling of tropical cyclone track and intensity for disaster risk assessment[J].Advances in Earth Science, 2012, 27(8):866-875.[方伟华, 石先武. 面向灾害风险评估的路径及强度随机模拟综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(8):866-875.]

[29]Toro G R, Resio D T, Divoky D, et al. Efficient joint-probability methods for hurricane surge frequency analysis [J]. Ocean Engineering, 2010, 37(1):125-134.

[30]Resio D T, Irish J, Ciaone M. A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 1. Basic concepts[J]. Natural  Hazards, 2009, 51:163-182.

[31]Toro G R, Niedoroda A W, Reed C W, et al. Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2010, 37(1):114-124.

[32]FEMA. Operating Guidance 8-12: Joint Probability-Optimal Sampling Method for Tropical Storm Surge Frequency Analysis[M]. Washington DC: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2012.

[33]Irish J L, Resio D T, Cialone M A. A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions[J]. Natural  Hazards, 2009,doi:10.1007/S11069-009-9381-4.

[34]Toro G R. Joint Probability Analysis of Hurricane Flood Hazards for Mississippi [R]. Florida: URS Group Tallahassee, 2008.

[35]Wang Guoan. Review and recently progress of design flood work in China[J]. Science & Technology,2008, 26(21):85-89.[王国安.中国设计洪水研究回顾和最新进展[J]. 科技导报, 2008, 26(21):85-89.]

[36]Wang Xinian. Risk analysis & computing of storm surge[J]. Marine Forecasts,2002, 19(4):73-76.[王喜年.风暴潮风险分析与计算[J]. 海洋预报, 2002, 19(4):73-76.]

[37]National Nuclear Security Administration. Pandect of Nuclear Safety Guidelines[M]. Beijing: China Legal Publishing House, 1998.[国家核安全局. 核安全导则汇编[M]. 北京: 中国法制出版社, 1998.]

[38]Yang Luo, Dong Liangyong. Study and suggestion on some problems of the surge prevention and disaster reduction[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2004, 21(1):81-84.[杨罗, 董良永. 防潮减灾中几个重要问题的探讨与建议[J]. 海洋预报, 2004, 21(1):81-84.]

[39]Niedoroda A W, Resio D T, Toro G R, et al. Analysis of the coastal Mississippi storm surge hazard[J]. Ocean Engineering,2010, 37(1):82-90.

[40]Liu Kecheng. An estimation for the probable maximum typhoon surgesin Shanghai Harbour[J]. Ocean Engneering,1984, 3(1):19-29.[刘科成.上海港可能最大台风暴潮的估算[J]. 海岸工程, 1984, 3(1):19-29.]

[41]Yin Qingjiang, Wang Xinian, Wu Shaohua. Calculation of probable maximum extratropical storm surge in Zhenhai[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica,1995, 17(6): 21-27.[尹庆江, 王喜年, 吴少华.镇海可能最大台风增水的计算[J]. 海洋学报, 1995, 17(6):21-27.]

[42]Yin Qingjiang. Computation of the possible maximum typhoon storm surge over Hangzhou Bay[J]. Marine Forecasts,1991,8(4):41-49.[尹庆江. 杭州湾可能最大台风风暴潮计算[J]. 海洋预报, 1991,8(4):41-49.]

[43]Wang Leming, Liu Jianliang. Research into PMSS of coastal nuclear power statio[J]. Electric Power Survey,1999, 2:49-53.[王乐铭, 刘建良. 滨海核电站可能最大风暴潮(PMSS)研究[J]. 电力勘测, 1999, 2:49-53.]

[44]Ye Tianbo. Estimation of Probable Maximum Storm Surge of Liaoning Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Plant[D].Shanghai: Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2007.[叶天波, 辽宁红沿河核电厂可能最大风暴潮的估算[D]. 上海:上海交通大学, 2007.]

[45]Gu Yubing, Zhao Xin, Huang Junbao, et al. Characteristics of tropical cyclones affecting Qinshan Nuclear Powerplant and designed value computation of nuclear-safe possible maximum tropical cyclone parameters[J]. Zhejiang Hydrotechnics,2010, 167:41-48.[顾裕兵, 赵鑫, 黄君宝,等. 影响秦山核电厂热带气旋特征及核安全可能最大热带气旋参数设计值计算[J]. 浙江水利科技, 2010, 167:41-48.]

[46]Liu Defu. Study of Typhoon Disaster Zoning and Prevention, Emergency Assessement Criteria[R].Qingdao: Ocean University of China, 2008.[刘德辅.中国沿海台风灾害区划、防台风标准应急制定、防台风应急评估标准制定[R]. 青岛:中国海洋大学, 2008.]

[47]Scheffner N W, Mark D J. Empirical simulation technique based storm surge frequency analyses[J]. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering,1996, 122(2):93-101.

[48]Scheffner N W, Clausner J F, Militello A. Use and Application of the Empirical Simulation Technique: User’s Guide[R]. Washington DC: US Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center, 1999.

[49]George E C, Susanne C M, Samuel J R, et al. Assessing the vulnerability of coastal commuities to extreme storms: The case of Revere, MA., USA[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1998, 3(1):59-82.

[50]Adger W N. Vulnerability[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2006, 16(3):268-281.

[51]Dilley M. Natural Disaster Hotspots: A Global Risk Analysis[M]. Washington  DC: World Bank Publications, 2005.

[52]Zheng Jun. Risk Assessment of Storm Surge and It’s Application[D]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2011.[郑君.风暴潮灾害风险研究方法及其应用研究[D]. 杭州:浙江大学, 2011.]

[53]Committee N F P. Flood Proofing: How to Evaluate Your Options: Decision Tree[M].US:US Army Corps of Engineers, 1995.

[54]Zhejiang Instituteof Hydrulics & Estuary. Zhejiang Hyraulic Engineering Flood Control and Disastermitigation Capacityassessement[R].Hangzhou: Zhejiang Institute of Hydraulics & Estuary, 2007.[浙江省水利河口研究院.浙江省水利工程防洪减灾能力评估[R].杭州:浙江省水利河口研究院, 2007.]

[55]Kleinosky L R, Yarnal B, Fisher A. Vulnerability of hampton roads, Virginia to storm-surge flooding and sea-level rise[J]. Natural Hazards, 2007, 40(1):43-70.

[56]Jonkman S, Vrijling J. Loss of life due to floods[J].Journal of Flood Risk Management, 2008, 1(1):43-56.

[57]Kelman I, Spence R. An overview of flood actions on buildings[J]. Engineering Geology, 2004, 73(3):297-309.

[58]Shi Peijun, Carlo C J, Ye Qian. Integrated Risk Governance: IHDP Project & Research of Catastrophe Risk Govermance[M]. Beijing: Beijing Normal Unversity Press, 2012.[史培军, 耶格·卡罗, 叶谦. 综合风险防范:IHDP综合风险防范核心科学计划与综合巨灾风险防范研究[M]. 北京: 北京师范大学出版社, 2012.]

[59]Wisner B, Blaikie P, Cannon T, et al. At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters[M]. London: Routledge,2003.

[60]Liang Haiyan, Zou Xinqing.  Risk assessment on storm surge in the Haikou Bay[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica,2005,27(5):22-29.[梁海燕, 邹欣庆.海口湾沿岸风暴潮风险评估[J]. 海洋学报, 2005, 27(5):22-29.]

[61]Yin Jie. Study on the Risk Assessment of Typhoon Storm Tide in China Coastal Area[D]. Shanghai: East China Normal University, 2011.[殷杰.中国沿海台风风暴潮灾害风险评估研究[D]. 上海: 华东师范大学, 2011.]

[62]Li Kuo, Li Guosheng. A storm surge vulnerability assessment  for coastal Guandong[J]. Tropical Geography, 2011, 31(2):153-159.[李阔, 李国胜. 广东沿海地区风暴潮易损性评估[J]. 热带地理, 2011, 31(2):153-159.]

[63]Peet R. New Models in Geography: The Political-economy Perspective[M]. London: Routledge, 1989.

[64]Guo Hongshou. Preliminary study of storm surge disaster assessment in China[J].Journal of Nanjing University(Natural Sciences), 1991,5:18-22.[郭洪寿. 我国潮灾灾度评估初探[J]. 南京大学学报:自然科学版, 1991,5:18-22.]

[65]Xu Qiwang, Tan Shudong. Research on the method of evaluating the economic loss caused by storm surge disaster[J]. Marine Science Bullitin, 1998, 17(1):1-12.[许启望, 谭树东. 风暴潮灾害经济损失评估方法研究[J]. 海洋通报, 1998, 17(1):1-12.]

[66]Shi Jianhui, Wang Mingwen, Wang Yongxin, et al. Probing on storm surge and storm surge disaster grading[J]. Marine Forecasts, 2000, 17(2):12-15.[史建辉, 王名文, 王永信,等. 风暴潮和风暴灾害分级问题的探讨[J]. 海洋预报, 2000, 17(2):12-15.]

[67]Fang Weihua, Wang Jing’ai, Shi Peijun, et al. Integrated Risk Governance—Database, Risk Map & Netword Platform[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2010. [方伟华, 王静爱, 史培军,等. 综合风险防范——数据库、风险地图与网络平台[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2010.]

[68]Shi Peijun. Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk in China[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2012. [史培军. 中国自然灾害系统地图集[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2012.]

[69]State Oceanic Administration of China. Guideline for Risk Assessment and Zoning of Storm Surge Disaster[S].Beijing: State Oceanic Administration of China,2012.[国家海洋局.风暴潮风险评估和区划技术导则[S].北京:国家海洋局,2012.]

[70]FEMA. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology Flood Model HAZUSMH MR5 Technical Manual[R]. Washington DC: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 2010.

[71]Wood R M, Drayton M, Berger  A, et al. Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England[J]. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2005, 363(1 831):1 407-1 422.

[72]Zheng Hui, Zhao Xin. Application of kernel density estimator on pure rate-making for marine disaster insurance—A case storm surge disaster[J]. Marine Environmental Science, 2012, 31(4):552-560.[郑慧, 赵昕. 核密度估计在海洋灾害保险纯保费厘定中的应用——以风暴潮灾害为例[J]. 海洋环境科学, 2012, 31(4):552-560.]

[73]Zhao Xin, Wang Xiaoting. Analysis of storm surge comprehensive property insurance acturial pricing models[J]. Statistics & Decision, 2011, 17:15-17.[赵昕, 王晓婷. 风暴潮灾害综合财产险精算定价模型探析[J]. 统计与决策, 2011, 17:15-17.]

[74]Chen Keping. Catastrophe modelling and its major overseas developers[J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2004,13(2): 1-8.[陈克平.灾难模型化及其国外主要开发商[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2004,13(2):1-8.]

[75]State Oceanic Administration of China. Storm Surges, Waves, Tsunamis and Sea Icedisaster Emergency Plan[R]. Beijing: State Oceanic Administration of China, 2012.[国家海洋局.风暴潮、海浪、海啸和海冰灾害应急预案[R]. 北京:国家海洋局, 2012.]

[76]Webster P J, Holland G J, Curry  J A, et al. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment[J]. Science,2005, 309(5 742):1 844-1 846.

[77]Susan S. Climate Change 2007—The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (Vol. 4)[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007.

[78]State Oceanic Administration of China. 2012 Chinese Sea Level Bulletin[R]. Beijing: State Oceanic Administration of China, 2013.[国家海洋局.2012年中国海平面公报[R]. 北京:国家海洋局, 2013.]

[79]Hoffman R N, Dailey P, Hopsch S, et al. An estimate of increases in storm surge risk to property from sea level rise in the first half of the twenty-first century[J]. Weather, Climate, and Society, 2010, 2(4):271-293.

[1] 覃荣高,邱仁敏,黎明,曹广祝,王金生,仵彦卿. 包气带—含水层地下水污染风险评估研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(2): 111-123.
[2] 童磊,郑珂,苏飞. 生计脆弱性概念、分析框架与评价方法[J]. 地球科学进展, 2020, 35(2): 209-217.
[3] 马学成, 巩杰, 柳冬青, 张金茜. 社会生态系统研究态势:文献计量分析视角[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(4): 435-444.
[4] 黄存瑞, 王琼. 气候变化健康风险评估、早期信号捕捉及应对策略研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(11): 1105-1111.
[5] 史培军, 王爱慧, 孙福宝, 李宁, 叶涛, 徐伟, 王静爱, 杨建平, 周洪建. 全球变化人口与经济系统风险形成机制及评估研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2016, 31(8): 775-781.
[6] 杨建平, 丁永建, 方一平, 秦大河. 冰冻圈及其变化的脆弱性与适应研究体系[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(5): 517-529.
[7] 艾丽坤, 王晓毅. 全球变化研究中自然科学和社会科学协同方法的探讨[J]. 地球科学进展, 2015, 30(11): 1278-1286.
[8] 张强, 韩兰英, 张立阳, 王劲松. 论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略[J]. 地球科学进展, 2014, 29(1): 80-91.
[9] 方伟华,石先武. 面向灾害风险评估的热带气旋路径及强度随机模拟综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(8): 866-875.
[10] 周瑶,王静爱. 自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(4): 435-442.
[11] 夏军,邱冰,潘兴瑶,翁建武,傅国斌,欧阳如林. 气候变化影响下水资源脆弱性评估方法及其应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(4): 443-451.
[12] 滕彦国,苏洁,翟远征,王金生. 地下水污染风险评价的迭置指数法研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2012, 27(10): 1140-1147.
[13] 崔胜辉,李方一,黄 静,于裕贤. 全球变化背景下的敏感性研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(9): 1033-1041.
[14] 刘小茜,王仰麟,彭建. 人地耦合系统脆弱性研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(8): 917-928.
[15] 贾丙瑞,周广胜. 北方针叶林对气候变化响应的研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(6): 668-674.
阅读次数
全文


摘要