通过对短期气候观测研究历史的回顾，提出了建立以“地圈”（包括地壳、地幔、地核）为主体的地气耦合模式，用来作为预测短期气候变化的方法。地球系统各子系统中，地圈的质量是水圈的10³倍，是气圈的10⁶倍，是生物圈的10⁸倍。亦即整个地球系统中99％以上的质量集中在地圈中。“地圈”（特别是岩石圈）存在着各种时间尺度的变化，所有这些变化必然影响到大气圈。对大气中≤10⁻²年的波动，大气圈本身的能耗水平，一般说来比岩石圈所给予的要高得多。故可将大气圈近似地处理为孤立系统。但对10⁻¹～10¹年的短期气候变化，“地圈”是否处于中心地位？文中给出了一些研究结果，证明了短期气候（10⁻¹～10¹年）变化的根本原因在地球内部，大气圈基本上只是处于一种响应状态。气候变化是地球系统的变化在大气圈子系统中的反映，并将其称为“气候变化的地心说”。为了建立“地心说”预报体系，最后提出了几点建议:(1)扩充现有的资料观测和收集系统；(2)建立以地幔动力学为主体的地气耦合模式；(3)坚持“理论联系实际”，不断提高，最终建立数值模式。

    After reviewing the history of short-term climate prediction study, the paper proposed a new method for predicting short-term climate change by using Earth-atmosphere coupled model which is centered in geosphere (including crust, mantle and core).
    In sub-systems of Earth-system, geosphere is 10³ times in quality of hydrosphere, 10⁶ times of atmosphere, 10⁸ times of biosphere. Geosphere is 99. 9% in quality of all sub-systerns of Earth-system. There are various time scale vibrations in geosphere (especially in lithosphere).All these vibrations affect atmosphere inevitably. For the changes of time scale shorter than 10^-2 years in atmosphere, the rate of energy dissipation of atmosphere is much more bigger than the rate of energy supplying from lithosphere to atmosphere. So, in these time scales, atmosphere may be considered as an isolated system approximately. But for 10^-1~10¹ years short-term climate change, does geosphere act as dominate factor? The paper had given some results to show that the basic cause of short-term(10^-1~10¹ years) climate change is in the solid Earth, and atmosphere is in response state. And climate change is the reflection of change of Earth-system in atmosphere. It is called "geocentric theory" of climate change.
    In order to construct a new prediction system based on this theory. Three proposals had been suggested, 1)enlarging data observating and collecting system;2)developing a new Earth-atmosphere coupled model based on mantle dynamics as main part;3)keeping the unity of theory and practice, deepening our understanding, finally, developing unmerical model.