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地球科学进展  2018, Vol. 33 Issue (4): 385-395    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.04.0385
研究论文     
长江下游夏季低频温度和高温天气的延伸期预报研究
杨秋明()
江苏省气象科学研究所,江苏 南京 210009
A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer
Qiuming Yang()
Jiangsu Meteorological Institute, Nanjing 210009, China
 全文: PDF(12149 KB)   HTML
摘要:

用1979—2011年逐日长江下游气温资料研究长江下游夏季高温日数与温度低频振荡的联系和变化特征。结果表明,长江下游夏季逐日气温主要有1525, 3060 和6070 d 的周期振荡,其中长江下游气温的3060 d 振荡强度年际变化和78月高温日数之间有显著的正相关。采用1979—2000年逐日长江下游气温3060 d低频分量和东亚850 hPa 低频温度主成分,构建了长江下游温度低频分量的延伸期预测的扩展复数自回归模型(ECAR)。对2001—2011年58月长江下游温度低频分量进行独立的实时延伸期逐日预报试验结果表明, 这种数据驱动的预测模型对3060 d时间尺度的长江下游低频温度分量的预测时效可达23 d左右, 对于提前2025 d预报长江下游地区夏季持续高温过程很有帮助,预报能力明显优于自回归模型(AR)。

关键词: 长江下游低频温度夏季高温天气ECAR预报模型实时延伸期预报    
Abstract:

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.

Key words: Low frequency temperature over the lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley    Summer    High temperature weather    Forecasting model of ECAR    Real-time extended-range weather forecast.
收稿日期: 2017-05-17 出版日期: 2018-05-24
ZTFLH:  P456.9  
基金资助: *国家自然科学基金项目“SCGT与夏季东亚ISO相互作用研究及其在长江下游强降水延伸期预报中的应用”(编号:41175082);江苏省气象科研基金面上项目“夏季长江下游地区低频降水和温度实时延伸期预报方法研究”(编号:KM201805)资助.
作者简介:

作者简介:杨秋明(1963-),男,江苏常州人,研究员,主要从事天气气候预测研究.E-mail:yqm0305@263.net

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引用本文:

杨秋明. 长江下游夏季低频温度和高温天气的延伸期预报研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2018, 33(4): 385-395.

Qiuming Yang. A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer. Advances in Earth Science, 2018, 33(4): 385-395.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2018.04.0385        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2018/V33/I4/385

图1  夏季长江下游低频温度和高温变化(a)长江下游地区; (b) 1979—2011年长江下游地区58 月逐日气温主要周期的年际变化,阴影区表示通过0.05显著性水平检验;(c)1979—2011 年78月高温日数的年际变化;(d)不同周期ISO之间的相关性,直方图表示78月高温日数与2,3,…,71 d振荡强度的相关,红色水平虚线表示通过0.05 显著性检验
图2  长江下游和东亚850 hPa低频温度变化(a)1979—2011年长江下游地区3060 d低频温度与东亚850 hPa低频温度场的相关分布;(b)东亚850 hPa低频温度场距平3060 d滤波 序列与原始序列季节内标准差比值的空间分布;(a)中相关系数已乘以100, 阴影表示通过0.05的显著性检验的区域;(b)中数值已乘以100, 单位: %, 阴影区表示≥30 的区域
图3  1979—2000年东亚850 hPa 3060 d低频温度场的主要空间模态(a)(g)对应于第17模态,图中数值已乘以1 000,虚线表示负值
图4  2001—2011年58月长江下游温度低频分量预报技巧(a)130 d预报与观测的相关系数,实线 ECAR:模型,虚线:AR模型, 水平实线表示达到95%的显著性水平; (b) 年际变化,绿、红、蓝、紫线分别表示11, 14,17和20 d预报, 水平虚线表示达到95%的显著性水平
图5  58月长江下游地区3060 d温度低频分量的ECAR模型的20 d预报(a),(b),(c)和(d)分别是2003年、2004年、2006年和2009年,图中实(虚)线分别表示实况(预报),直方图表示长江下游地区逐日气温距平变化(单位:℃); r是预测和实况之间的相关系数,预报的初始时间分别是4月11日,…, 8月11日
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