全球高分辨率气候系统模式研究进展

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.03.0258.

地球科学进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (3): 258 -268. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2016.03.0258.

全球高分辨率气候系统模式研究进展

栾贻花 ^1, ²(

), 俞永强 ^1,,A; ^*(

), 郑伟鹏 ¹

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG), 北京 100029
2.中国科学院气候变化研究中心,北京 100029

收稿日期:2015-11-24 修回日期:2016-02-25 出版日期:2016-03-20
通讯作者: 俞永强 E-mail:luanyh@mail.iap.ac.cn;yyq@lasg.iap.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“海洋多尺度变化过程、机理及可预测性研究”(编号:2013CB956204);国家自然科学基重点项目“全球高分辨率气候系统模式研制和应用”(编号:41530426)资助

Review of Development and Application of High Resolution Global Climate System Model

Yihua Luan ^1, ²( ), Yongqiang Yu ^1, ^*( ), Weipeng Zheng ¹

1.State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2.Climate Change Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China

Received:2015-11-24 Revised:2016-02-25 Online:2016-03-20 Published:2016-03-10
Contact: Yongqiang Yu E-mail:luanyh@mail.iap.ac.cn;yyq@lasg.iap.ac.cn
About author:
First author:Luan Yihua (1983-), female, Laiwu City, Shandong Province, Assistant Scientist. Research areas include the climate numerical simulation and the modeling study of paleoclimate.E-mail:luanyh@mail.iap.ac.cn

Corresponding author:Yu Yongqiang (1968-), male,Dalian City, Liaoning Province, Professor. Research areas include the climate model and the air-sea interaction.E-mail:yyq@lasg.iap.ac.cn
Supported by:
Project supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China “Study on the process and mechanism of ocean multi-scale changes and predictability” (No.2013CB956204);the National Natural Science Foundation of China “Development and application of a high Resolution global climate system model” (No.41530426)

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气候模式是定量研究气候演变规律、预测或预估未来气候变化的重要工具。提高气候模式空间分辨率并改进相应的物理参数化过程,是改善模式性能的重要途径之一, 对于认识气候变化规律、提高气候预测能力具有重要作用。在阐述发展全球高分辨率气候系统模式重要性的基础上,对当今国内外高分辨率气候系统模式的研究进展进行总结,介绍全球高分辨率气候系统模式研发和评估的现状及其存在的问题,并着重讨论了制约当前高分辨率气候系统模式发展的关键科学问题和技术瓶颈,其中包括高分辨率海洋和大气模式动力框架的研制和大规模高性能并行计算、次网格物理参数化过程的改进,以及中尺度海气相互作用等。同时,还介绍了国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段中的高分辨率模式比较子计划的科学目标及其试验设计方案。最后对未来我国全球高分辨率气候系统模式的发展和评估进行了展望。

关键词: 数值模拟, 动力框架, 次网格物理参数化, 中尺度海气相互作用

Climate models have been used as an important tool to quantitatively study climate variability and to predict or project climate change in the future. One of the most important pathways for development and improvement of climate system model is to increase the spatial resolution and improve the corresponding physical parameterization schemes, which is very important for understanding climate change and improving climate prediction skill. Based on a brief introduction of the importance of developing high-resolution global climate system model, a review of recent progresses in the development and application of high-resolution models was summarized. The paper also introduced the current situation and problems for the development and evaluation of high-resolution models and focused on the key scientific and technical bottlenecks which restrict the development of high-resolution models, including the development of dynamic framework of the high-resolution ocean and atmospheric models and massive high performance parallel computing, the improvement of the sub-grid physical parameterization scheme, and mesoscale air-sea interaction. Meanwhile, the scientific objects and experiments design of the international high resolution climate model intercomparison project (HiResMIP) of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) was introduced. Finally, we prospect the future developments and evaluations of high-resolution climate models in China was proposed.

Key words: Numerical simulation, Dynamic framework, Sub-grid physical parameterization scheme, Mesoscale air-sea interaction.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 周平均海表高度的标准差 ^{[

17
]}
(a)卫星高度计资料MSLA(2000年1月2日至2007年12月19日);(b)0.1°×0.1°分辨率LICOM(2000年1月1日至2007年12月31日)和(c)1°×1°分辨率LICOM (1°×1°分辨率LICOM使用的是逐日的海表高度输出)

Fig.1 The STD of weekly SSHA ^{[

17
]}
(a)A satellite altimeter during 2000-01-02 to 2007-12-19 (MSLA),(b)Eddy-resolving LICOM (0.1°) and (c) coarse-resolution LICOM (1°) during 2000-01-01 to 2007-12-31.The daily SSHA is also used in the coarse-resolution OGCM

图2 观测和模拟的夏季(6~8月)平均的降水率 ^{[

25
]}
(a)和(b)区域为印度—中国季风区,(c)和(d)为全球热带区域。观测降水(a,c)来源于TRMM_3B42,模式数据(b,d)为水平分辨率7 km的模式试验,单位为mm/d

Fig.2 Observed and simulated precipitation rate as June-July-August average ^{[

25
]}
(a) and (b) over the Indo-China monsoon region, (c) and (d) over global tropics. The observed precipitation (a and c) is from TRMM_3B42, and the simulation (b and d) is for 7 km-mesh run. Units: mm/d

图3 高通滤波表面风速和海表温度的时间相关 ^{[

52
]}
图中打点区域代表t检验显著性超过95%置信水平;(a)1°海洋和0.5°大气(实验1);(b)0.1°海洋和0.5°大气(实验2);(c)0.1°海洋和0.25°大气(实验3);(d)卫星观测。模式结果分析用4年的月平均输出(48个月),观测为2002—2006年的AMSR和OuikSCAT数据

Fig.3 Temporal correlation of high-pass filtered surface wind speed with SST ^{[

52
]}
Locations where ice appeared have been masked and stippling indicates statistical significance at the 95% level calculated using a two-sided t-test (a) 1.0° ocean and 0.5° atmosphere (experiment 1); (b) 0.1° ocean and 0.5° atmosphere (experiment 2); (c) 0.1° ocean and 0.25° atmosphere (experiment 3);(d) Satellite observations. Model analysis computed using four years of monthly averaged output (48 months), observational analysis using AMSR and OuikSCAT data for 2002-2006

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