年代际气候预测问题:科学前沿与挑战

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0331

地球科学进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (4): 331 -341. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2017.04.0331

年代际气候预测问题:科学前沿与挑战

周天军 ^1, ²(

), 吴波 ¹

1.中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029
2.中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2016-11-22 修回日期:2017-01-20 出版日期:2017-04-20
基金资助:
公益性行业(气象)科研专项项目“基于FGOALS-s、CMA和CESM气候系统模式的年代际集合预测系统的建设与研究”(编号:GYHY201506012);国家自然科学基金项目“20世纪全球季风变化模拟和未来变化预估”(编号:41330423)资助

Decadal Climate Prediction: Scientific Frontier and Challenge

Tianjun Zhou ^1, ²( ), Bo Wu ¹

1. LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2016-11-22 Revised:2017-01-20 Online:2017-04-20 Published:2017-04-20
About author:
First author:Zhou Tianjun(1969-),male, Longkou City, Shandong Province, Professor. Research areas include climate modelling, monsoon and air-sea interaction.E-mail:zhoutj@lasg.iap.ac.cn
Supported by:
Project supported by the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) “Development and research of ensemble decadal climate prediction system based on global climate models FGOALS-s, CMA and CESM” (No.GYHY201506012);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “Global monsoon: 20 ^th century change simulation and future change projection” (No.41330423)

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未来10~30年气候状态的预测是当前国际气候领域的研究热点,被包括世界气候研究计划耦合模式比较计划(CMIP)在内的国际科学计划列为核心内容。年代际气候预测已经从最早单纯关注未来10~30年的气候变化拓展为关注未来1~10年或者30年的逐年气候状态。国际上开始尝试基于年代际气候预测系统发布未来1年和5年平均的气候展望。针对年代际气候预测的科学前沿和挑战问题,从年代际气候可预报性的理论认知、当前国际上关于年代际气候预测的主要科学进展2个角度进行了总结,据此提出了该领域亟待解决的前沿科学问题,对提升年代际气候预测技巧的途径进行了讨论。

关键词: 年代际, 初始化, 外强迫, 耦合模式

The prediction of climate change in the future 10~30 year is a hot research area of the international community of the climate science, which has been listed as a core content of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and some other important international scientific projects. The forecast object of the decadal climate prediction has been extended from averaged state over the future 10~30 years to temporal evolutions in future 1~10 or 30 years. Recently, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has been preparing to issue climate states in the near future based on decadal climate prediction systems. Focusing on the cut-edging and challenging scientific questions of the decadal climate prediction, we reviewed the theoretic basis of the predictability of the decadal climate and recent progresses of the practical decadal prediction experiments by international modelling centers in the paper. Finally, we summarized the core scientific questions to be solved in the area and discuss ed possible pathways to improve the skills of the decadal climate prediction.

Key words: Decadal variability, Initialization, External forcing, Coupled model.

中图分类号:

P467

图1 从逐天的天气预报到未来百年的气候预测中初值和外强迫的贡献大小 ^{[

4
]}
绿色(初值问题)和红色(外强迫)由深变浅,表示其贡献由大变小

Fig.1 A schematic illustrating the progression from an initial-value based prediction at short time scales to the forced boundary-value problem of climate projection at long time scales ^{[

4
]}
Decadal prediction occupies the middle ground between the two

图2 CMIP5多模式集合对表面温度(a)和降水(b)在2~5年时间尺度上的回报技巧 ^{[

20
]}
技巧评估的指标为均方根技巧评分(RMSSS),分数越高,技巧越高;打点区域表示通过5%的显著性检验

Fig.2 Prediction skills of the multi-model ensemble mean of the CMIP5 on surface temperature(a) and precipitation (b) for hindcast year 2~5 ^{[

20
]}
The skills are measured by Root Mean Square Skill Score (RMSSS);The higher the score, the higher the skill;Dots denote that the values passing 5% significance level

图3 FGOALS-s2(a)和中国气象科学研究院气候系统模式CAMS-CSM(b)年代际回报试验(1960—2015年)在第6~9年的回报技巧
分数越高技巧越高;打点区域表示通过5%的显著性检验

Fig.3 Prediction skills of FGOALS-s2 (a) and CAMS-CSM (b) on surface temperature for hindcast year 6~9
The higher the score, the higher the skill; Dots denote that the values passing 5% significance level

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