过去2000年东亚夏季风降水百年际变化特征及成因的模拟研究

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.07.0780

利用地球系统模式CESM过去2 000年气候模拟试验结果,探讨了在百年尺度上东亚夏季风降水的时空变化特征及其成因,对于认识百年尺度气候变化规律、区分外强迫因子对东亚季风的影响有着重要的科学意义。研究表明：①东亚夏季风降水与温度基本同相变化,降水存在准100年、准150年和准200年周期。②降水标准化EOF第一模态为由北向南 “负—正—负—正”的条带状空间分布,而EOF第二模态基本为全区一致的分布型态。③东亚夏季风降水准100年周期主要受太阳辐射、火山活动和气候系统内部变率的共同影响;准150年周期主要受太阳辐射的影响;准200年周期主要受太阳辐射和火山活动的影响。东亚夏季风降水在温带地区主要受温室气体和土地利用/覆盖的影响;在副热带地区主要受太阳辐射和火山活动的影响;在热带地区主要受太阳辐射、火山活动和气候系统内部变率的影响。

关键词: 过去2000年, 气候模拟, 东亚夏季风, 外强迫因子, 百年尺度

The characteristics and causes of the spatio-temporal variation of the EASM precipitation on centennial time scale were analyzed in this paper based on the climate simulation results over the past 2000 years using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). It has an important scienjpgic significance to recognize the climate change on centennial time scale and to distinguish the influence of external forcing on the EASM. The results show: ①The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) precipitation and temperature mainly reflect an in phase variability on centennial time scale. We found that there are three periodicities (100a, 150a and 200a) in the EASM precipitation. ②The spatial structures of the first mode of the standardization EOF of the EASM precipitation show the “minus-plus-minus-plus” zonal belts while the spatial structures of the second mode show almost an in phase variability in the East Asian region. ③The 100 year cycle of the EASM precipitation is caused by the total solar irradiation, the volcanic eruptions and the internal variability of climate system. The 150 year cycle is caused by the total solar irradiation and the 200 year cycle is caused by the total solar irradiation and the volcanic eruptions. The main cause of the spatial patterns of precipitation in the East Asian region is the total solar irradiation but forcings affect differently in different latitude. The factors affecting the spatial change of the extratropical EASM precipitation are the greenhouse gases and the land use and land cover change, while the factors affecting the spatial change of the subtropical EASM precipitation are the total solar irradiation and the volcanic eruptions. And the factors affecting the spatial change of the tropical EASM precipitation are the total solar irradiation, the volcanic eruptions and the internal variability of climate system.

Key words: Past 2000 years, Climate simulation, The East Asian summer monsoon, External forcing, centennial time scale.

中图分类号:

P426.6

Table 1 Six climatic modeling experiments over the past 2000 years used in this study.

序号	试验名称	驱动因子	简称	积分时间长度/a
1	控制试验	与NCAR参加CMIP5控制试验相同^[29	Ctrl	2 000
2	太阳辐射敏感性试验	Shapiro等^{[ 30 ]}2000年重建结果	TSI	2 000
3	火山活动敏感性试验	Gao等^{[ 31 ]}1500年重建结果	Vol	1 500
4	温室气体敏感性试验	Macfarling等^{[ 32 ]}2000年重建结果	GHGs	2 000
5	土地利用/覆盖敏感性试验	Kaplan等^{[ 33 ]}2000年重建结果	LUCC	2 000
6	全强迫试验	太阳辐射+火山活动+温室气体+土地利用/覆盖	All	2 000

Table 1 Six climatic modeling experiments over the past 2000 years used in this study.

序号	试验名称	驱动因子	简称	积分时间长度/a
1	控制试验	与NCAR参加CMIP5控制试验相同^[29	Ctrl	2 000
2	太阳辐射敏感性试验	Shapiro等^{[ 30 ]}2000年重建结果	TSI	2 000
3	火山活动敏感性试验	Gao等^{[ 31 ]}1500年重建结果	Vol	1 500
4	温室气体敏感性试验	Macfarling等^{[ 32 ]}2000年重建结果	GHGs	2 000
5	土地利用/覆盖敏感性试验	Kaplan等^{[ 33 ]}2000年重建结果	LUCC	2 000
6	全强迫试验	太阳辐射+火山活动+温室气体+土地利用/覆盖	All	2 000

图1 过去2000年模拟试验所采用的主要外强迫因子变化的时间序列
（a）太阳辐射 ^{[

30
]}（W/m ²）;（b）火山活动 ^{[

31
]}（g/m ²）;（c）温室气体 ^{[

32
]}（CO ₂浓度,ppm）;（d）土地利用/覆盖 ^{[

33
]}（农作物所占的格点百分比,%）

Fig.1 Time series of the main individual forcings used in model experiments over the past 2000 years
(a) Total solar irradiation (W/m ²);(b) Volcanic aerosol mass (g/m ²);(c) Greenhouse-gases (CO ₂concentration, ppm);(d) Land use and land cover rate (percent crop of grid cell,%)

Table 2 Observational,reanalysis, reconstructed and simulated datasets used in comparison

序号	资料名称	简称	空间分辨率	起止时段
1	美国气候预测中心降水集合分析资料^{[ 36 ]}(Climate prediction center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)	CMAP	2.5°×2.5°	1979—2014年
2	第二版全球降水气候项目的降水资料^{[ 37 ]}(The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project)	GPCP	2.5°×2.5°	1979—2014年
3	葛全胜等^{[ 15 ]}重建的过去2000年中国区域温度距平序列	Ge	中国区域平均	1—2000年
4	德国马普气象研究所利用ECHO-G开展的过去千年全强迫试验^{[ 38 ]}	ERIK	3.75°×3.75°	1000—1990年

Table 2 Observational,reanalysis, reconstructed and simulated datasets used in comparison

序号	资料名称	简称	空间分辨率	起止时段
1	美国气候预测中心降水集合分析资料^{[ 36 ]}(Climate prediction center Merged Analysis of Precipitation)	CMAP	2.5°×2.5°	1979—2014年
2	第二版全球降水气候项目的降水资料^{[ 37 ]}(The Version-2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project)	GPCP	2.5°×2.5°	1979—2014年
3	葛全胜等^{[ 15 ]}重建的过去2000年中国区域温度距平序列	Ge	中国区域平均	1—2000年
4	德国马普气象研究所利用ECHO-G开展的过去千年全强迫试验^{[ 38 ]}	ERIK	3.75°×3.75°	1000—1990年

图2 年降水率（mm/d）的气候平均态
（a）CMAP ^{[

36
]};（b）GPCP ^{[

37
]};（c）All;（a）和（c）中左上角和左下角的数字分别为与GPCP的空间相关系数和均方根误差

Fig.2C omparison of the climatological annual mean precipitation rate(mm/d)
The numbers shown in the upper-left and lower-left corners of(a)and(c)indicate pattern correlation coefficients and root mean square errors with GPCP, respectively

图3 过去2000年中国区域平均温度距平（℃,相对于1851—1950年）的时间序列

Fig.3T ime series of area averaged annual mean surface temperature anomaly(℃, relative to 1851-1950)over China over the past 2000 years

图4 CMAP,GPCP和All的降水率的年变化（mm/d）

Fig.4 The annual cycle of precipitation rate (mm/d)derived from CMAP, GPCP, and All

图5 过去2000年东亚夏季降水与地表气温变化
（a）降水率距平（mm/d,相对于1—2000年）与地表温度距平（℃,相对于1—2000年）的时间序列;（b）降水率时间序列的功率谱

Fig.5T ime series of East Asian summer precipitation rateand surface temperatureover the past 2000 years
(a) Precipitation rateanomaly (mm/d,relative to 1-2000) andsurface temperature anomaly (℃,relative to 1-2000);(b)Power spectrum of the time series of East Asian summer precipitation rate

图6 All的东亚夏季风降水标准化EOF
（a）All降水标准化EOF前4个模态的解释方差及特征值误差范围检验;（b）EOF第一特征向量;（c）EOF第二特征向量

Fig.6 The standardization EOF of the summer mean precipitation rate of All
(a) Fractional variance (%) explained by the first four EOF modes of the EASM precipitation rate of All and the error range test of eigenvalues; (b) The spatial structure of the first EOF mode; (c) The spatial structure of the second EOF mode

图7 东亚夏季风降水和外强迫因子的功率谱
（a）All;（b）Ctrl;（c）太阳辐射;（d）火山活动;（e）温室气体;（f）土地利用/覆盖

Fig.7 Power spectrum of time series ofEASM precipitation and the forcings
(a)All, (b)Ctrl, (c)total solar irradiation,(d)volcanic eruptions, (e)greenhouse-gases,(f)land use and landcover

图8 各试验的东亚夏季降水标准化EOF第一特征向量

Fig.8 The spatial structure of the first EOF mode of East Asian summer precipitation
（a）All;（b）Ctrl;（c）TSI;（d）Vol;（e）GHGs;（f）LUCC

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Modeling Study on the Characteristics and Causes of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation on Centennial Time Scale over the Past 2000 Years