浅论气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.06.0709

地球科学进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (6): 709 -714. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2015.06.0709

张强 ¹, 马芳 ², 王莺 ¹, 宋连春 ³, 马鹏里 ⁴

1. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室甘肃兰州 730020; 2. 中城国合（北京）规划设计研究院北京 100045; 3. 中国气象局国家气候中心北京 100081; 4. 西北区域气候中心兰州 730020

出版日期:2015-06-25
基金资助:
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害的变化规律和机理及其影响与对策”第六课题“气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害风险评估与对策研究”（编号：2013CB430206）资助

A Brief Discussion about Climatic Capacity and Its Effect on Risk Management of Climate Safety

Zhang Qiang ¹, Ma Fang ², Wang Ying ¹, Song Lianchun ³, Ma Pengli ⁴

1. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou 730020, China; 2. China City & International Cooperation (Beijing) Planning and Design Institute, Beijing 100045, China; 3. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 4. Northwest Regional Climate Center, Lanzhou 730020, China

Online:2015-06-25 Published:2015-06-25

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全球气候安全问题已经日益突显,为了开展气候安全风险管理,国内学术界最近提出了气候容量的概念。然而,目前对气候容量的科学认识十分有限,甚至还没有比较统一的科学定义,对如何通过气候容量评价开展气候安全风险管理也没有明确的技术思路。在归纳总结以往研究的基础上,进一步讨论了气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用,对气候容量给出了更加科学的定义和合理的诠释,并且分析了气候容量的科学属性和基本特征,探讨了全球气候安全风险的总体趋势,提出了利用气候容量的杠杆作用提升气候安全风险管理和气候资源开发利用水平的初步思路。这对推进我国气候业务对国家非传统安全的服务能力具有科学参考作用。

关键词: 气候变暖, 气候安全, 气候服务, 风险管理, 气候容量

The climate safety issues have increasingly been highlighted. There has been an increasing concern about the global climate safety. To develop the risk management of climate safety, climatic capacity was proposed as a concept by Chinese researchers. However, knowledge about the climate capacity is still limited—even a commonly accepted scientific definition is not available. And there are no clear ideas that how a risk management of climate safety can be conducted by evaluating with climate capacity. By summarizing previous researches, this study further discussed the climate capacity and its usage in the risk management of climate safety. With a more scientific definition and a more reasonable explanation given to the climate capacity, its scientific properties and basic features were analyzed, and the overall trend of climate risk was investigated. By these studies, a preliminary thought was proposed, that the leverage in climate capacity should be used to improve the risk management of climate safety, and to develop the exploitation of climate resources. The results will be a scientific reference in developing the service capability of the climate operations in the non-traditional national security of China.

Key words: Climatic capacity, Risk management, Climate service., Climate safety, Climate warming

中图分类号:

P426.616

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