近20年气候变暖对北京时令旅游的影响——以北京市植物园桃花节为例

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.03.0313

北京植物园桃花节是赏花专题时令旅游的典型代表,以近20年植物园桃花节的起讫时间、持续时间及相关气温、物候期等数据为依据，探讨了气候变暖对时令旅游的影响。结果表明：1994年前后桃花节开始日期存在着显著的均值差异，后一时段比前一时段约提前6天，植物园桃花节的开始日期在总体上响应了以山桃始花为代表的北京春季物候提前的变化趋势。同时，桃花节开始日期与上年山桃始花日期、上年年均温度存在显著相关性，反映人们对桃花节的决策是参照上一年的物候现象做出的，相对于气候年际波动存在1年的滞后。桃花节结束日期受人为因素影响较大，但总的来说气候变暖有利于桃花节持续日数的延长。此外，桃花节响应气候变化的滞后性，使得气候波动容易引起时令旅游产品的不稳定，不利于时令旅游的经济效益和社会效益。

关键词: 气候变暖, 物候, 桃花节, 时令旅游

Peach flower stanza is a typical representative of seasonal tourism. In this paper, the Peach flower stanza of Beijing Botanical Garden in recent 20 years is used as an example for the study of the effects of global warming on seasonal tourism, based on the data of starting and ending date of Peach flower stanza, the temperature and the plant phonological periods. It is found that the starting date of Peach flower stanza expresses a trend for being earlier in the past 20 years, which coincides with the trend of shifting to an earlier date of the spring plant phonological periods in Beijing at the same time, in the context of global warming. According to the result of independent-sample t test, the mean starting date of Peach flower stanza after 1994 was obviously earlier with about 6 days than that before 1994. The starting date of Peach flower stanza had significant correlation with the first-flowering dates of Prunus davidiana and the annual mean temperature of last year. It indicates that the starting date of the Peach flower stanza was decided by reference the spring plant phonophases of the last year, which is a time lag for one year in response to the annual fluctuation of the temperature. The ending date of Peach flower stanza seems more affected by human factors. But in general, the global warming is favorable to prolong the days of Peach flower stanza. In addition, because the response of Peach flower stanza to climate change has a time lag, the climate fluctuation may induce more unsteady of the seasonal tourism products, which is unfavorable to the economic and social efficiency of seasonal tourism.

Key words: Global warming, Phenology, Peach flower stanza, Seasonal tourism.

中图分类号:

P467

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摘要

Effects of Global Warming on Seasonal Tourism for the Last 20 Years in Beijing—A Case Study on the Peach Flower Stanza of Beijing Botanical Garden