气象干旱向农业干旱的传播是降水亏缺转化为土壤水分亏缺的关键过程，在很大程度上影响干旱的实际严重程度，并进一步影响作物产量与农业经济效益。基于标准化降水指数和标准化土壤湿度指数，联合游程理论、最大皮尔逊相关系数法、Copula 函数和地理探测器，系统解析了1990 年以来江苏省气象干旱向农业干旱的传播过程及其驱动机制。结果表明，农业干旱事件频次低于气象干旱，而平均历时和平均强度均高于气象干旱。气象干旱向农业干旱的传播时间集中于3~5 个月；从空间分布来看，传播时间以3 个月为主，呈现南部传播较快、北部较慢的格局。随着气象干旱等级的提升，农业干旱发生概率增加，轻度、中度、重度和极端气象干旱条件下农业干旱平均发生概率分别为0.51、0.65、0.75 和0.83；不同等级农业干旱对应的传播阈值差异明显，高等级农业干旱需要更强的气象水分亏缺才能触发。降水是传播时间空间分异的主导因子，土壤湿度和温度亦具有重要贡献；各因子交互作用均增强了对传播时间空间差异的解释能力，其中降水与土壤湿度的交互作用最强。研究结果可为区域农业干旱监测预警及水资源管理提供科学依据，同时为 降低干旱对农业生产的负面影响提供理论参考。

Abstract：The propagation from meteorological drought to agricultural drought is a key process through which precipitation deficit translates into soil moisture deficit, which largely determines the actual severity of drought impacts and further affects crop yield and agricultural economic benefits. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), drought propagation and its driving factors in Jiangsu Province since 1990 were systematically investigated by integrating run theory, the maximum Pearson correlation coefficient method, copula functions, and the geographical detector. Agricultural drought events occurred less frequently than meteorological drought events but had longer mean durations and greater mean intensities. Propagation times were concentrated between 3 and 5 months. Spatially, a 3-month propagation time predominated, with faster propagation in southern Jiangsu and slower propagation in northern Jiangsu. The probability of agricultural drought increased with meteorological drought severity. Under mild, moderate, severe, and extreme meteorological drought, the mean probabilities of agricultural drought occurrence were 0.51, 0.65, 0.75, and 0.83, respectively. Propagation thresholds differed markedly among agricultural drought severity levels, with more severe agricultural drought requiring a greater meteorological water deficit to be triggered. Precipitation was the dominant factor controlling spatial variation in propagation time, while soil moisture and mean air temperature also made important contributions. Interactions among all pairs of factors enhanced their explanatory power for spatial differences in propagation time, and the interaction between precipitation and soil moisture was the strongest. These findings provide a scientific basis for regional agricultural drought monitoring, early warning, and water resources management, and offer theoretical support for reducing the adverse impacts of drought on agricultural production.