干旱传播的研究进展、挑战与展望

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.024

地球科学进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (6): 563 -579. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.024

干旱传播的研究进展、挑战与展望

张翔 ¹ ^, ²(

), 黄舒哲 ³, 管宇航 ¹

^1.中国地质大学（武汉），国家地理信息系统工程技术研究中心，地理与信息工程学院，湖北武汉 430074
^2.湖北珞珈实验室，湖北武汉 430079
^3.武汉大学，测绘遥感信息工程国家重点实验室，湖北武汉 430079

收稿日期:2022-10-19 修回日期:2023-04-06 出版日期:2023-06-10
基金资助:
湖北珞珈实验室开放基金项目“基于星地多源数据融合的高精度高分辨率时空连续土壤水分感知技术”(220100059);国家自然科学基金项目“基于星地多源数据的干旱演变过程连续监测与定量分析方法研究”(41801339)

Research Progress, Challenges, and Prospects in Drought Propagation

Xiang ZHANG ¹ ^, ²( ), Shuzhe HUANG ³, Yuhang GUAN ¹

^1.National Engineering Research Center of Geographic Information System, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China
^2.Hubei Luojia Laboratory, Wuhan 430079, China
^3.State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying, Mapping, and Remote Sensing (LIESMARS), Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

Received:2022-10-19 Revised:2023-04-06 Online:2023-06-10 Published:2023-06-07
About author:ZHANG Xiang (1989-), male, Xiaogan City, Hubei Province, Professor. Research area includes disaster remote sensing. E-mail: zhangxiang76@cug.edu.cn
Supported by:
the Open Fundation Item: Hubei Luojia Laboratory “High-precision, high-resolution, spatiotemporal continuous soil moisture sensing technology based on fusion of multi-source data from space and ground”(220100059);The National Natural Science Foundation of China “Research on continuous monitoring and quantitative analysis methods of drought evolution based on fusion of multi-source data from space and ground”(41801339)

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干旱通过相互关联的陆气系统与水文循环过程进行传播，在不同的地理时空传播演变成不同的干旱类型，如水文干旱、农业干旱、生态干旱和社会经济干旱等。在全球气候变暖和人类活动加剧的背景下，不同类型干旱之间的传播演变过程呈现出更多的不确定性。近10年来，对干旱传播时空特征、研究方法、演变过程以及驱动因素的理解逐步加深，但明确的科学观点仍相对匮乏。因此，从干旱传播的定义出发，系统分析了该问题的科学内涵，阐明了干旱传播研究的发展阶段。随后综合归纳了当前干旱传播的6类定量研究方法，包括阈值方法与游程理论、相关分析、因果分析、交叉小波、概率模型以及气象水文模型。并进一步从气象—水文和气象—农业两类干旱传播情景以及干旱传播驱动力方面，分析总结了当前形成的主要科学认识，揭示了全球范围内干旱传播研究发现的传播顺序、阶段阈值、时空异质性和人类驱动过程。最后分析指出了未来干旱传播研究面临的一系列挑战，包括进一步挖掘传播过程时空异质性、突破数学与物理知识鸿沟建立可信模型以及融入跨领域知识实现全过程的传播解析。对国内外干旱传播研究的前沿进展和挑战进行了系统分析，可为下一步干旱灾害分析与科学管理提供关键理论与方法支撑。

关键词: 干旱灾害, 传播特征, 时空特征, 定量方法, 促动因素

Droughts spread through interrelated land-atmosphere systems and hydrological processes, and evolve into different types of droughts, such as hydrological, agricultural, ecological, and socioeconomic droughts, in different geographical and temporal contexts. Against the backdrop of global climate change and intensified human activities, the propagation and evolution of different types of drought present more uncertainties. Over the past decade, our understanding of the spatiotemporal characteristics, research methods, evolutionary processes, and driving factors of drought propagation has gradually deepened, but clear scientific views have not been realized. Beginning from the definition of drought propagation, this study systematically analyzed the scientific connotation of the problem and clarified the developmental stages of drought propagation research. Six quantitative research methods for current drought propagation were comprehensively summarized: threshold method and run theory, correlation analysis, causal analysis, cross-wavelet analysis, probability models, and meteorological-hydrological models. Furthermore, from the perspective of meteorological-hydrological and meteorological-agricultural drought propagation scenarios and drought propagation driving forces, the main acquired scientific knowledge was analyzed and summarized. The findings reveal the propagation order, stage threshold, spatiotemporal heterogeneity, and human-driven processes of drought propagation research worldwide. Finally, a series of challenges that future drought propagation research will face were analyzed. These include further exploration of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the propagation process, bridging the gap between mathematical and physical knowledge to establish trustworthy models, and integrating cross-disciplinary knowledge to achieve a full-process analysis of propagation. The systematical analysis of the progress and challenges of domestic and international drought propagation research will provide key theoretical and methodological support for the next steps in drought disaster analysis and scientific management.

Key words: Drought disaster, Propagation characteristics, Spatio-temporal characteristics, Quantitative method, Driven factors

中图分类号:

P426.616

表1 干旱传播的定义对比

Table 1 Comparison between different definitions of drought propagation

序号	定义	参考文献
1	不同类型干旱之间的转化，如气象干旱到水文干旱的转化过程	［ 32 ］
2	干旱信号在陆表水文循环中的移动	［ 33 ］
3	从一种类型干旱转移到另一种类型干旱的现象被称为干旱传播	［ 34 ］
4	负面的水文气象信号（气象干旱）通过互相连接的水文子系统（如土壤系统、地表水系统和地下水体）进行发展	［ 35 ］
5	水分缺失信号在不同类型干旱之间的传递	［ 36 ］
6	从干旱发生到产生灾害或影响的链状传递过程	［ 12 ］

表1 干旱传播的定义对比

Table 1 Comparison between different definitions of drought propagation

序号	定义	参考文献
1	不同类型干旱之间的转化，如气象干旱到水文干旱的转化过程	［ 32 ］
2	干旱信号在陆表水文循环中的移动	［ 33 ］
3	从一种类型干旱转移到另一种类型干旱的现象被称为干旱传播	［ 34 ］
4	负面的水文气象信号（气象干旱）通过互相连接的水文子系统（如土壤系统、地表水系统和地下水体）进行发展	［ 35 ］
5	水分缺失信号在不同类型干旱之间的传递	［ 36 ］
6	从干旱发生到产生灾害或影响的链状传递过程	［ 12 ］

图1 从时空过程的角度理解干旱传播特征

Fig. 1 Understanding the characteristic of drought propagation from the spatio-temporal perspective

图2 干旱传播的地理学内涵

Fig. 2 Geographical implications of drought propagation

图3 长江流域各子流域SPI与SRI序列交叉小波功率谱图^{［

64
］}
颜色的深浅表现了2个序列在时频域变换的局部性和动态性特点，代表能量密度的相对变化；黑色细线为小波影响锥的边界线，其内部区域为有效的功率谱值区；在锥体内部，黑色粗线代表超过了显著性水平 α=0.05的置信区间。黑色箭头代表SPI与SRI的相位关系，箭头朝右表示2个序列有正相关关系，反之，则呈现负相关关系；箭头朝上说明SPI滞后于SRI的变化，朝下则说明SRI滞后于SPI的变化

Fig. 3 The cross wavelet transform power spectrums between SPI series and SRI series in each sub basin of Yangtze River Basin^{［

64
］}
The color intensity represents the local and dynamic characteristics of the two sequences in the time-frequency domain transformation， indicating the relative changes in energy density. The thin black lines represent the boundary of the wavelet influence cone， and the interior region represents the effective power spectrum value zone. Within the cone， the thick black line represents the confidence interval exceeding the significance level α = 0.05. The black arrows indicate the phase relationship between SPI and SRI， with the arrow pointing to the right indicating a positive correlation between the two sequences， and vice versa for a negative correlation. An arrow pointing upwards indicates that SPI lags behind SRI changes， while an arrow pointing downwards indicates that SRI lags behind SPI changes

图4 干旱传播过程的主要驱动因子

Fig. 4 Main driven factors in drought propagation process

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