雪面雨洪水基本特点、研究进展及展望

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2025.035

雪面雨洪水致灾机理及演变规律是当今水文学中“最需要解决的”“23个主要待解决的关键科学问题之一”，也是国家防灾减灾的基本需求。在总结雪面雨洪水基本特点的基础上，分析了雪面雨洪水的研究进展及发展动态，发现当前雪面雨洪水界定尚停留在“潜在雪面雨洪水”阶段，且阈值不一，致灾机理不明，导致对洪水演变规律认识不清，缺乏模拟和预报模型，难以精确开展洪水预警及风险防控，亟须提出“真实”雪面雨洪水界定方法，揭示致灾机理，构建模拟及预报模型，在复演典型雪面雨洪灾事件及预报应用示范的基础上，明确区域/流域雪面雨洪水的演变规律、未来可能变化及潜在风险等。

关键词: 雪面雨洪水, 致灾机理, 演变规律, 不确定性

Rain-on-snow floods are extreme hydrological events characterized by sudden onset, low frequency, and high destructiveness, often leading to severe disasters. Due to their complex nature, understanding the disaster-causing mechanisms, evolution processes, and prevention strategies of rain-on-snow floods has become one of the most pressing challenges in contemporary hydrology and a fundamental requirement for national disaster prevention and mitigation. This study reviews the distribution characteristics and hazards of rain-on-snow floods and examines current research progress and development trends. It is found that the definition of rain-on-snow floods remains at a “potential” stage, with varying thresholds and considerable inconsistency. The disaster-causing mechanisms are still unclear, resulting in a limited understanding of flood evolution laws and a lack of robust simulation and forecasting models. These gaps hinder accurate flood warnings and risk management. There is an urgent need to establish a “real” definition of rain-on-snow floods, based on extensive flood event data and related observations. Additionally, revealing the underlying mechanisms, developing reliable simulation and forecasting models, and replicating typical rain-on-snow flood events through application-based demonstrations are essential next steps. This will enable a clearer understanding of the evolutionary processes, future changes, and potential risks of rain-on-snow floods at regional, basin, and global scales, while also supporting the development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies.

Key words: Rain-on-snow flood, Disaster-causing mechanism, Evolvement rule, Uncertainties.

中图分类号:

P426.616

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