地球科学进展 ›› 2026, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (2): 127 -132. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2026.014

综述与评述 上一篇    

系统农业气象学理论框架与发展展望
潘志华1(), 王靖1, 胡琦1, 王立为2   
  1. 1.中国农业大学 资源与环境学院,北京 100193
    2.沈阳农业大学 农学院,辽宁 沈阳 110866
  • 收稿日期:2025-09-06 修回日期:2025-11-27 出版日期:2026-02-10
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划地球系统与全球变化专项(2023YFF0805703);中国气象局气候变化专题项目(QBZ202401)

Theoretical Framework and Development Prospects of Systematic Agricultural Meteorology

Zhihua Pan1(), Jing Wang1, Qi Hu1, Liwei Wang2   

  1. 1.College of Resources and Environment, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
    2.College of Agriculture, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
  • Received:2025-09-06 Revised:2025-11-27 Online:2026-02-10 Published:2026-04-02
  • About author:Pan Zhihua, research areas include agricultural and ecological meteorology, climate change impacts and adaptation, and interactions between land and atmosphere. E-mail: panzhihua@cau.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805703);the Climate Change Special Project of China Meteorological Administration(QBZ202401)

系统科学为农业气象学应对当前挑战提供了解决方案,发展系统农业气象学是推进农业气象学发展的迫切需要。基于农业气象学研究对象的系统性特征,阐释了系统农业气象学的内涵与理论框架,并对其研究前景进行展望。结果表明,系统农业气象学是应用系统分析方法研究农业气象系统内各要素的相互作用机制、动态演变规律及其对农业生产影响与优化路径的科学;研究的关键科学问题包括多源数据尺度转换、多要素协同机制以及多过程耦合模型构建等;研究目标为优化农业气象系统结构,协同实现农业生产的高产、优质、高效与可持续发展。系统农业气象学为农业气象学发展的新形态与新引擎,将基于“观测—分析—描述—模拟—优化”五位一体的研究路径,通过理论创新、技术集成与服务重构,推动农业生产从“靠天吃饭”向“知天而作”的智慧范式转型,为应对气候变化下的粮食安全挑战及发展农业气象新质生产力提供科学支撑。

Currently, the increasingly severe climate change, frequent occurrence of extreme weather events, growing pressure on food security, and the accelerated development of smart agriculture have posed severe challenges to the development of agricultural meteorology. Systems science provides solutions for agricultural meteorology to address these challenges, and developing systematic agricultural meteorology is an urgent need to promote the development of agricultural meteorology. Based on the systematic characteristics of the research object of agricultural meteorology, this article proposes the connotation and theoretical framework of systematic agricultural meteorology and looks forward to the research prospects. The results show that systematic agricultural meteorology is a science that uses system analysis methods to study the interaction mechanisms, dynamic evolution laws, and impacts and optimization paths of various elements within the agricultural meteorological system. It focuses on the interrelationships among various elements in the agricultural meteorological system and emphasizes the application of cybernetics, computer technology, and mathematical theories. Through systematic observation, analysis, description, simulation, and optimization, it builds agricultural meteorological models to achieve state expression, dynamic simulation, and regulatory improvement of the agricultural meteorological system, promoting the coordinated development of the agricultural meteorological system. The key scientific issues of systematic agricultural meteorology include multi-source data scale conversion, multi-factor synergy mechanisms, and multi-process coupling model construction. The research goal is to optimize the structure of the agricultural meteorological system and collaboratively achieve high-yield, high-quality, high-efficiency, and sustainable agricultural production. Systematic agricultural meteorology is a new form and new engine for the development of agricultural meteorology. Through theoretical innovation, technology integration, and service reconfiguration, it promotes the transformation of agricultural production from “relying on nature” to the intelligent paradigm of “knowing nature and working accordingly”, realizing the paradigm shift from empirical judgment to intelligent decision-making, and providing scientific support for addressing the challenges of food security under climate change and developing new quality productive forces in agricultural meteorology.

中图分类号: 

图1 系统农业气象学研究路径
Fig. 1 Research pathway of systematic agricultural meteorology
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