区域土地利用变化驱动力研究前景展望

doi:10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2007.08.0798

区域土地利用变化驱动力研究旨在从典型区域角度揭示土地利用变化背后的真正动因及其作用机理，进而动态模拟、预测区域土地利用变化过程。土地利用系统的自组织性及其内驱动因子作用的复杂性，决定了其研究必须与某一特定区域相联系，以便确定合适的可定量指标来体现外生驱动因子的驱动效果。系统地识别土地利用系统在不同控制状态下的驱动因子及其多种时空尺度效应，建立具有综合模拟的区域土地利用变化动态模型，能减少土地利用系统通常受临界值域和突变所左右的局面。区域土地利用变化驱动因子识别、区域土地利用变化驱动机制分析、区域土地利用变化驱动过程模拟等的研究现状表明，为更好地理解区域土地利用变化的机制和原因，测度现有及未来土地利用变化的速率、过程和地点，支持政府相关决策的制定与实施，促使区域土地利用变化向有利于人类的方向发展,区域土地利用变化驱动力分析应优先考虑以下研究领域：①驱动力因子识别及其作用效应的尺度依赖性；②驱动力因子的贡献量化及其在具体区域的非均一分布；③驱动力因子作用过程的自然反馈机制模型化。

关键词: 驱动力, 过程模拟, 驱动机制, 土地利用变化, 区域尺度

This paper reviews the research on the drivers of regional land use change. The study of regional land use change drivers is to reveal the real motivation behind the land use change and its interacting mechanism in the aspect of the typical region, so as to simulate and predict the process of land use change. Presently, studies rooting from different natural and socioeconomic backgrounds, and from different scales, have deepened the understanding and cognition of regional land use change driving forces. In order to confirm the fit quantifiable index to embody the driving effect of outer driving factor, the study in the future need to be related with a special region determined by the selforganization of land use system and the complexity of its inner driving forces function. To comprehensively identify the driving factor of land use system under the control of different states and its multiple spatialtemporal scales domino effect, and to establish the regional land use change dynamic models of comprehensive simulation, will reduce the situation of land use system impacted by critical threshold and break. Providing a scientific understanding of the causes and process of regional land use change, the measurements of how, why and where' of current or future changes in regional land use, the impacts of different land use decisions, and the ways that decisions are affected by a changing environment and increasing ecological variability are priority areas for research: (1) identification of divers of regional land use change and scale dependency of their effects; (2) contribution quantification of drivers of regional land use change and their nonuniform distributions in specific region; and (3) incorporation of biophysical feedbacks in land use change models. These issues are very basic. The incorporation of dynamic feedbacks between changing regional land use and changing environmental conditions and vice versa, therefore needs to focus on solving these problems. These findings will be useful to supply fine ground and knowledge for establishing appropriate land use practices, and be important policy implications for the promotion of environmentally and economically sound land use.

Key words: Process simulation., Land use change, Regional scale, Drivers, Driving mechanism

中图分类号:

F311

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摘要

The Drivers of Land Use Change at Regional Scale: Assessment and Prospects