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地球科学进展  2006, Vol. 21 Issue (11): 1153-1163    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.11.1153
研究论文     
CGE与GIS集成的中国城市增长情景模拟框架研究
沈体雁
北京大学政府管理学院城市与区域管理系,北京 100871
China Urban Future Simulation: An Integrated Framework of CGE and GIS
Shen Tiyan
Department of Urban & Regional Management, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
 全文: PDF(207 KB)  
摘要:

建立机理和空间明确的城市模拟模型,对刻画我国城市未来情景、推演城市增长的环境影响、解释城市增长复杂性具有重要意义。现有的城市模拟模型偏重于对单个城市或城市区域进行模拟,大多缺乏可靠的经济学基础。通过有效集成CGE模型、GIS空间分析和格网动力学模型,采用多区域可计算一般均衡模型将分散的城市模拟模型连接成为相互作用的“城市模型体系”,提出一个经济机理和地理参考明确的、多维度、多尺度、可运行的中国城市未来模拟模型框架,阐述其假设、逻辑、主要内容与关键技术。

关键词: 可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)复杂性GIS城市空间增长中国城市未来模拟模型    
Abstract:

Urban system is a kind of complex spatial systems. Developing spatially explicit urban simulation models is a very important approach to mapping urban future, analyzing environmental impacts of urban growth and explaining urban complexities in China. However, the existing urban simulation models, for example, system dynamics based models, cellar automation based models and multi-agent based models, are not enough to explain and analyze the complexities of urban system in China for their lack of reliable economic theories and their limit in only one urban area or metropolitan area. This paper tries to integrate multi-regional computable general equilibrium models (MRCGE), geographical information system and geographical cellar dynamics into a framework, in which MRCGE is used to link many urban models into an interdependent urban model system. The authors develop a sort of hypotheses, approaches, components and core techniques for this framework, which is considered to be spatially explicit, economically clear, multi-dimension, multi-scale, accountable and operational in promoting scenario analyses and explaining urban complexities in China.

Key words: Computable general equilibrium model (CGE)    GIS    Urban growth    Spatial complexity.    China urban future simulation
收稿日期: 2005-04-06 出版日期: 2006-11-15
:  P291  
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金项目“我国区域城镇化管理的系统研究”(编号:70433002);国家自然科学基金项目“2008年奥运会的城市增长效应与控制:一个集合性时空动态建模方法”(编号:60304008);北京市自然科学基金项目“基于空间智能体的北京城市增长研究”(编号:4022006)资助.

通讯作者: 沈体雁     E-mail: tyshen@pku.edu.cn
作者简介: 沈体雁(1971-),男,湖北天门人,副教授,博士,主要从事城市模拟与地理计算、城市与区域规划、遥感和地理信息系统等研究.E-mail:tyshen@pku.edu.cn
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沈体雁

引用本文:

沈体雁. CGE与GIS集成的中国城市增长情景模拟框架研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(11): 1153-1163.

Shen Tiyan. China Urban Future Simulation: An Integrated Framework of CGE and GIS. Advances in Earth Science, 2006, 21(11): 1153-1163.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2006.11.1153        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2006/V21/I11/1153

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