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地球科学进展  2019, Vol. 34 Issue (8): 814-825    DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.08.0814
综述与评述     
我国1030天延伸期预报技术进展与发展对策
金荣花(),马杰(),任宏昌,尹姗,蔡芗宁,黄威
国家气象中心,北京 100081
Advances and Development Countermeasures of 1030 days Extended-range Forecasting Technology in China
Ronghua Jin(),Jie Ma(),Hongchang Ren,Shan Yin,Xiangning Cai,Wei Huang
National Meteorological Centre, Beijing 100081, China
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摘要:

10~30天延伸期预报技术是世界性难题,但是延伸期时效预报在我国气象防灾减灾决策服务和重大活动气象保障服务中起着非常重要的作用。近10年来,我国在10~30天延伸期预报技术领域进行了有益的探索,并取得了一定的进展。在总结延伸期预报理论和预报技术的基础上,系统介绍我国延伸期预报业务技术的进展;并结合数值模式发展趋势和未来延伸期预报的需求,分析我国延伸期预报业务中存在的具体技术问题和挑战,最后提出未来延伸期预报业务的发展思路。

关键词: 延伸期预报技术进展发展对策可预报性    
Abstract:

The 10~30 days extended-range forecasting technology is a worldwide problem, but it plays a very important role in meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation decision-making services and meteorological support services for major activities in China. In the past decade, China has carried out beneficial explorations in 10-30 days extended-range forecasting theory and technology and made some progress. Based on the introduction of the theory and technology of extended-range forecast, this paper systematically introduced the technical progress of China’s extended-range forecasting service; combining with the development trend of numerical model and the demand of future extended-range forecast, here we analyzed the specific technical problems and challenges in China’s extended-range forecast service, and finally proposed the development ideas of future extended-range forecast service.

Key words: Extended-range forecast    Technical progress    Development countermeasures    Extended-range predictability.
收稿日期: 2019-04-24 出版日期: 2019-10-11
ZTFLH:  P429  
基金资助: 夏季高温中期预报方法研究”(2015BAC03B04);气象预报业务关键技术发展专项“发展11-30天延伸期客观定量预报关键技术”(编号:YBGJXM(2018)04)
通讯作者: 马杰     E-mail: jinrh@cma.gov.cn;majie@mail.iap.ac.cn
作者简介: 金荣花(1969-),女,黑龙江牡丹江人,研究员,主要从事天气分析与大尺度动力过程研究. E-mail:jinrh@cma.gov.cn
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引用本文:

金荣花,马杰,任宏昌,尹姗,蔡芗宁,黄威. 我国1030天延伸期预报技术进展与发展对策[J]. 地球科学进展, 2019, 34(8): 814-825.

Ronghua Jin,Jie Ma,Hongchang Ren,Shan Yin,Xiangning Cai,Wei Huang. Advances and Development Countermeasures of 1030 days Extended-range Forecasting Technology in China. Advances in Earth Science, 2019, 34(8): 814-825.

链接本文:

http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2019.08.0814        http://www.adearth.ac.cn/CN/Y2019/V34/I8/814

图1  无缝隙天气—气候预报示意图

预报

时效/d

分辨率 成员数 频率 回算 回算时段 回算频率

回算

成员数

实时预报每个周期数据量

每次回算

更新数据量

BoM(ammc) 0~62 T47L17 3 × 11 2次/周 回算完毕 1981—2013年 6次/月 3 × 11 6 TB
CMA(babj) 0~60 T106L40 4 逐日 回算完毕 1994—2014年 逐日 4
CNR-ISAC(isac) 0~32 0.75 × 0.56 L54 41 逐周 回算完毕 1981—2010年 1次/5日 5
CNRM(Ifpw) 0~32 T255L91 51 逐周 回算完毕 1993—2014年 4次/月 15 6.6 TB
ECCC(cwao) 0~32 0.45 × 0.45 L40 21 逐周 实时回算 1998—2017年 逐周 4
ECMWF(ecmf) 0~46 Tco639/319 L91 51 2次/周 实时回算 过去20年 2次/周 11
HMCR(rums) 0~61 1.1 × 1.4 L28 20 逐周 实时回算 1985—2010年 逐周 10
JMA(rjtd) 0~33 TI479/TI319 L100 50 逐周 回算完毕 1981—2010年 3次/月 5 3.8 GB 900 GB
KMA(rksl) 0~60 N216L85 4 逐日 实时回算 1991—2010年 4次/月 3
NCEP(kwbc) 0~44 T126L64 16 逐日 回算完毕 1999—2010年 逐日 4
UKMO(egrr) 0~60 N216L85 4 逐日 实时回算 1993—2016年 4次/月 7
表1   S2S数据集包含的11个数值模式具体参数
图2   ECMWF延伸期预报产品示例
图3   NCEP延伸期预报产品示例
图4  中央气象台延伸期预报产品示例
图5   2018年1~7月96~168 h暴雨TS评分
图6  延伸期时效后处理技术效果评估示例
图7  延伸期预报业务技术体系架构图
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