地球科学进展 ›› 2000, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (3): 277 -282. doi: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2000.03.0277

综述与评述 上一篇    下一篇

20世纪气候学理论研究的十项成就
王绍武   
  1. 北京大学地球物理系,北京 100871
  • 收稿日期:1999-04-26 修回日期:1999-06-04 出版日期:2000-06-01
  • 通讯作者: 王绍武,男,1932年11月出生于河北省束鹿,教授,主要从事气候学研究。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目“20世纪中国与全球气候变率研究”(编号:49635190)资助。

TEN ITEMS OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ACHIEVEMENTS IN THEORETICAL STUDIES OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING20TH CENTURY

WANG Shaowu   

  1. Department of Geophysics,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China
  • Received:1999-04-26 Revised:1999-06-04 Online:2000-06-01 Published:2000-06-01

回顾了20世纪气候学理论研究的主要成就,包括世界三大涛动、高低指数、月平均环流、瓦克环流、温室效应、月平均环流预测、ENSO预测、时滞振子理论、温盐环流及季平均环流预测。另外,对可能成为21世纪初气候学理论研究的几个热点问题作了分析,即气候预测、东亚季风、ENSO、年代际气候变率以及温室效应的检测。

Theoretical studies of climatology during the 20th century was reviewed. Ten items of the most important achievements were outlined as following:①NAO,NPO and SO,②circulation index,③30-day mean circulation,④Walker circulation,⑤greenhouse effect,⑥prediction of monthly mean circulation,⑦prediction of ENSO,⑧delayed oscillator,⑨thermohaline circulation, and10prediction of seasonal mean circulation. Some problems which may become the hot topics in early 21st century, such as
climatic prediction, East Asian monsoon, ENSO, interdecadal variability of climate, and detection of greenhouse effect,are discussed briefly.

中图分类号: 

〔1〕Walker GT, Bliss E. World weather〔J〕.V mem. Roy Meteor Soc, 1932, 4:58~84.
〔2〕Wallace J M, Gutzler D S. Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter〔J〕. Mon Wea Rev, 1981, 109:784~812.
〔3〕Rossby C G, Collaborators. Relations between variations in the intensity of the zonal circulation and the displacments of the semi-permanent centers of action〔J〕. J Marine Research,1939, 2: 38~55.
〔4〕Thompson D W J, Wallace J M. Structure of the Arctic and Antarctic oscillation〔A〕. Proceedings of the Twenty -Third Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop. Oct 26~30 1998. NOAA, NWS, CPC / NCEP, 1999.281~284.
〔5〕Namias J. Thirty-day forecasting: a review of a ten year experiment〔J〕. Meteoro Monogra, 1953, 2: 83.
〔6〕Charney J G. Numerical prediction and the general circulation〔A〕.In:Pfeffer R L, ed.Dynmics of Climate〔C〕. London:Pergamon, 1960. 12~17.
〔7〕Bjeknes J. Atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific〔J〕. Mon Wea Rev, 1969, 97: 163~172.
〔8〕Flohn H, Fleer H. Climate teleconnections with the equatorial Pacific and the role of ocean/atmosphere coupling〔J〕.Atmosphere, 1975, 34: 96~109.
〔9〕Manabe S, Wetherald R T. The effects of doubling the CO concetration on a general circulation model〔J〕. J Atmos Sci,1975, 32: 3~15.
〔10〕Houghton J T, Meira Filho L G, Callander B A,et aleds.IPCC Climate Change 1995, the Science of Climate Change,Contribution of Warking Group 1 to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change〔R〕. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1996. 572.
〔11〕Charney J G, Fleagle R G, Riehl H,et al. The feasibility of a global observation and analysis experiment〔J〕. Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1966, 47: 200~220.
〔12〕Miyakoda K, SirutisJ, Ploshay J. One-month forecast experiments-without anomaly boundary forcings〔J〕. Mon Wea Rev, 1986, 114: 2 363~2 401.
〔13〕Cane M A, Zebiak S E, Dolan S C. Experimental forecasts of El Ni n~o〔J〕. Nature, 1986,321: 827~832.
〔14〕Chen D, Cane M A, Zebiak S E,et al. The impact of sea level data assimilation on the Lamont model prediction of the 1997/98 El Ni n~o〔J〕. GRL, 1998, 25: 2 837~2 840.
〔15〕Suarez M J, Schopf P S. A delayed action oscillator for ENSO〔J〕. J Atmos Sci, 1998, 45: 3 283~3 287.
〔16〕Battisti D S, Hirst A C. Interannual variability in the tropical atmosphere/ocean system: Influence of the basic state, ocean geometey and nonlinearity〔J〕. J Atmos Sci, 1989, 46: 1 687~1 712.
〔17〕Delworth T, Manabe S, Stouffer R J. Interdecadal variations of the thermohaline circulation in a coupled ocean-atmosphere model〔J〕. J Climate, 1993, 6: 1 993~2 011.
〔18〕Gray W M. Hypothesis on the cause of global multidecdal climate change〔A〕. Proceedings of the Twenty Second Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop,October 6~10, 1997, Berkeley〔C〕. US Department of Commerce, NOAA, NWS, CPC/ NCEP, 1998.112~115.
〔19〕Ming J, Kumar A, Leetmaa A. A multiseason climate forecast system at the National Meteorological Center〔J〕.Bull Amer Meteor Soc, 1994, 75: 569~579.
〔20〕Evans R E,Evans A D L,Graham K J,et al. Seasonal predictability experiments〔A〕. Proceedings of the Twenty-Second Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop, October 6~10, 1997, Berkeley〔C〕. US Department of Commerce, NOAA, NWS, CPC / NCEP,1998.14~17.
〔21〕van den Dool H M. Long-range weather forecasts through mumerical and empirical methods〔J〕. Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 1994, 20: 247~270.
〔22〕Meehl G A. A coupled air-sea biannial mechanism in the tropical Indian and Pacific regions: role of the oceans〔J〕. J Climate, 1993, 6: 31~41.
〔23〕Slingo J. SHIVA: A European programme for monsoon Research〔J〕. CLIVAR Exchanges, 1999, 4(1): 4~7.
〔24〕McPhaden N J, Busalacchi A J, Cheney R,et al. The tropical ocean-global atmosphere observing system : A decade of progress〔J〕. J Geophys Res, 1998, 103 (C7): 14169~14 240.
〔25〕Webster P J, Magana V O, Palmer T N,et al. Monsoon :Processes, predictability, and the prospects for prediction 〔J〕. J Geophys Res, 1998, 103 (C7): 14 451~14 510.
〔26〕Schlesinger M E, Ramankutty N. An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65~70 years〔J〕. Nature, 1994,367: 723~726.
〔27〕Hegerl G C, Hasselmann, K Cubasch U,et al. Multi-fingerprint deteetion and attribution analysis of greenhouse gas, greenhouse gas-plus-aerosol, and solar forced climate change〔J〕. Clim Dyna, 1997,13: 613~634.
〔28〕Martinson D G,Battisti D S, Bradley R S,et al. Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability and Change: A Science Strategy〔M〕. Washingtion: National Academy Press,1998.142.

[1] 朱明佳, 赵谦益, 刘绍民, 徐同仁. 农田下垫面观测通量的变化特征及其气候学足迹分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2013, 28(12): 1313-1325.
[2] 宋洪军,季如宝,王宗灵. 近海浮游植物水华动力学和生物气候学研究综述[J]. 地球科学进展, 2011, 26(3): 257-265.
[3] 周天军,满文敏,张洁. 过去千年气候变化的数值模拟研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 2009, 24(5): 469-476.
[4] 吴殿廷,吴巧新,刘睿文,宋金平. 中美地理学近百年发展脉络的比较研究——基于《地理学报》和Annals of the Association of American Geographers 学术论文的统计分析[J]. 地球科学进展, 2008, 23(6): 553-561.
[5] 陈光华,黄荣辉. 西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(6): 610-616.
[6] 贾立,M.Menenti. 利用MODIS fAPAR傅立叶时间序列分析研究植被光合作用活动对净辐射和降雨的响应:青藏高原个例研究[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(12): 1254-1259.
[7] S.Metzger,马耀明,T.Markkanen,M.Gckede,李茂善,T.Foken. 利用步长模拟对青藏高原涡度方差测量法的质量评价[J]. 地球科学进展, 2006, 21(12): 1260-1267.
[8] 刘罡;蒋维楣;罗云峰. 非均匀下垫面边界层研究现状与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2005, 20(2): 223-230.
[9] 黄成敏,王成善,艾南山. 土壤次生碳酸盐碳氧稳定同位素古环境意义及应用[J]. 地球科学进展, 2003, 18(4): 619-625.
[10] 翟裕生. 矿床学的百年回顾与发展趋势[J]. 地球科学进展, 2001, 16(5): 719-725.
[11] 钱正安,焦彦军. 青藏高原气象学的研究进展和问题[J]. 地球科学进展, 1997, 12(3): 207-216.
[12] 季国良. 辐射气候学[J]. 地球科学进展, 1994, 9(1): 73-74.
[13] 吴祥定;邵雪梅. 中国树木年轮气候学研究动态与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 1993, 8(6): 31-35.
[14] 王勤学; 曹鸿兴. 浑沌气候学研究进展[J]. 地球科学进展, 1993, 8(4): 1-10.
阅读次数
全文


摘要